MULTICRITERIA EVALUATION IN A POLICY ANALYSIS OF A RHINE ESTUARY1

ABSTRACT: As part of a major project to provide the Rhine delta protection from North Sea floods, the Dutch installed sluices at Haringvliet in the late 1960s and converted the Haringvliet-Hollandsch Diep-Biesbosch (HHB) estuary into a tidally-damped, fresh-water system. Two decades later, the Dutch Rijkswaterstaat commissioned a study of alternative policies for managing the sluices and removing contaminated bottom sediments, including policies which would at least partially restore estuarine conditions to the HHB. This paper describes the public policy analysis comprising that study, focusing on the role played by formal mullicriteria evaluation (MCE), including the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Through the tasks of value-tree structuring, impact measurement, and criterion prioritization, the MCE influenced the entire structure of the analysis, became an integral part of it, and, despite initial skepticism among the participants about the utility of multicriteria analysis, was subsequently accepted and viewed favorably by the majority of them.     

Repeat maternal serum testing in multiple marker down's syndrome screening programmes

The effect of repeat testing in maternal serum multiple marker screening for Down's syndrome was estimated using samples stored in an antenatal serum bank. Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) and unconjugated oestriol (uE₃) levels were determined in 142 pairs of routinely collected samples which had already been tested for alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). For each marker, about two-thirds of the pairs of values were within 20 per cent of each other and most were within 40 per cent. A multivariate Gaussian model was used to estimate the detection and false-positive rates for different repeat testing policies. A policy of repeat testing those with a high risk of a Down's syndrome term pregnancy given age and marker levels would reduce the false-positive rate but there would also be a reduction in the detection rate. For example, using all three markers and a 1 in 250 cut-off risk, the estimated false-positive rate would fall from 5·3 to 3·8 per cent but the detection rate would decrease from 58 to 55 per cent. A policy of repeating those with either high or borderline risks would produce a modest improvement in screening efficiency. Repeating the 11 per cent with a risk exceeding 1 in 500 yields an estimated false-positive rate of 5·0 per cent and a detection rate of 60 per cent. A policy of selective repeat testing is not recommended as it would not substantially improve screening efficiency. Nonetheless, if a repeat test has been performed, the parameters given in this paper will enable an unbiased estimate of the Down's syndrome risk to be calculated for individual women.     

船舶在航更换压载水方法浅析

介绍了船舶在航更换压载水的各种方法，包括逐一更换法，注入顶出法和稀释法。并将各种方法从对船舶和船员的安全所造成的影响两方面进行了比较。     

恒定横流底部多孔排放近区污水稀释扩散效果因素研究

借助于人工模型试验，分析了恒定横流底部多孔排放时扩散器设计参数（射流角度、射流速度、喷口个数）、上升管间距）及环境参数（环境水深、环境流速）对污水近区稀释扩散效果的影响，实验结果表明，除了环境条件对污水稀释扩散效果影响明显之外，扩散器设计参数对污水的近区稀释扩散也有显著的影响，针对白龙港排放口水域，喷口射流角度宜控制在１０°左右，喷口个数取１６个     

生态型组合人工湿地污水处理工艺

建立了由生物调节池、好氧降解与微生物培养池、潜流湿地和表流湿地组成的生态型污水处理组合工艺系统,用以处理生活污水和试验室废水。系统连续运行2年的处理效果持续稳定,出水水质达到国家(GB 18918-2002)1级排放标准。该工艺的建设成本和运行成本低,用地面积小于2 m2/t,建设成本为300~500元/t,运行耗电量小于0.1元/t,管理维护等费用约为0.1元/t,运行合计费用小于0.2元/t,该生态型组合人工湿地所具有的环境效益、经济效益及社会效益,对于处理水量不大、水质变化不太大,管理水平不太高的广大中小城镇、居民小区尤其适用。     

Distribution,sources and pollution status of Pb in indoor and outdoor dusts of Kerman City,SE Iran

The aims of this study were to explore the status of pollution and the temporal/spatial distribution of indoor and outdoor dust-Pb in the city of Kerman (SE Iran), located in a dry playa and arid climatic zone. Flat panes were laid at appropriate locations, in the indoor and the outdoor spaces of selected one-story houses in different areas of the city, to collect dust samples. Forty-two samples were taken and analyzed using the ICP-MS method. The measurements have shown that the outdoor dust-Pb concentrations varied from 23.7 to 275.2?mg kg^?1, with a mean value of 71.8?mg kg^?1, and indoor dust-Pb concentrations ranged from 47.6 to 150.2?mg kg^?1, with a mean value of 89.6?mg kg^?1. Based on these measurements, Pb was enriched in the outdoor and the indoor dust samples up to 48.8 and 29.4 times, respectively. Dilution, as a result of prevalence of geogenic dust in the outdoor space, is expected to be the main cause of the temporal differences. This study has shown that the eastern part of the city is more polluted compared to the other parts, and, because of the stable air conditions, the concentration of Pb in the summer dust is higher than the other seasons.     

Geochemistry of soil around a fluoride contaminated area in Nayagarh District,Orissa, India: Factor analytical appraisal

Fluoride contamination in soil was studied in the vicinity of a hot spring in Nayagarh district of Orissa. Both bulk soil from 0 to 30 cm depth and profile soils from 0 to 90 cm depth were analyzed for total fluoride (F_t) and 0.01 M CaCl₂ extractable fluoride (F_ca), major elements, pH, EC and Organic Carbon (OC). High concentrations of both F_t and F_ca were observed in the area surrounding the hot spring and the village of Singhpur. Principal factor analysis (PFA) on the parameters of the bulk soils suggests that two major chemical processes due to three factors, control the soil geochemistry of the area. Factor-1 contributes 37.11% of the total variance and is strongly loaded with Al, Si, Fe, F_tand F_ca, and explains the fluoride enrichment of the soil, whereas the second and the third factors contribute 16.6 and 12.2%, respectively and explain the controlling process of carbonate precipitation and soil alkalinity. Multiple regression analysis of the scores of the factors was performed to derive a fluoride contamination index in soil. The magnitude of the factor effect on the contamination index follows the order of Factor-1 > Factor-2 > Factor-3. The spatial distribution of the contamination index is used to classify the area into highly contaminated, moderately contaminated and uncontaminated zones.     

Influence of ozone on the sampling and storage of volatile organic compounds in canisters

A dynamic dilution system was used for the study of the influence of ozone on the sampling and storage of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) at 0, 4, 7 and 14 days in “TO-Can” canisters at two ozone concentrations, 60 and 150 ppbv. Among the 31 ozone precursors VOCs, a representative mixture containing five alkenes, five aromatics, acetylene and 1,3 butadiene was selected using the Clausius–Clapeyron equation. Here, we demonstrate that the presence of ozone have no influence on the concentrations of VOCs after 14 days storage period and consequently no problem of representativity of the sampling appears after 14 days of storage. The main explanation is the degradation of ozone in contact with deactivated walls of canisters.     

中国岩溶生态地质研究

因自然地理条件特殊，中国南方岩溶区形成组构相对脆弱的岩溶多重介质环境。加上不适当的认为干扰，岩溶多重介质环境遭受严重破坏，导致各类物种急剧减少或消失。文章主要对岩溶多重介质环境的脆弱性、水资源合理开发利用、土壤质量、生态承载力、化学元素迁移演变规律和人类参变作用等方面进行了讨论；针对上述问题提出了解决方案，即划分岩溶多重介质环境结构和功能区，并结合数学物理模型和实验，建立岩溶生态地质研究系统理论框架和实用技术方法库，使岩溶生态地质研究走上科学、合理的轨道。     

A new method for spatially moving correlation analysis in geomedicine

A method of correlation analysis within a spatially moving window was applied to two sets of epidemiological/geochemical data in Norway, (1) mortality/disability rates of multiple sclerosis (MS) versus atmospheric fallout of Mg and concentrations of Se in overbank sediment, and (2) incidence rates of malignant melanoma of the skin (MM) versus concentrations of Ca and K in overbank sediment. It appears that n = 17 observation sites within the moving window is a practical compromise between noise in the data at small values of n and a spatial resolution good enough to detect trends in the distribution patterns of the correlation coefficient. For MS versus Mg, MS versus Se and MM versus Ca the correlation coefficients are generally negative and depict systematic distribution patterns with anomalous clusters of sites with good correlation. For MS versus Se the correlation coefficients also form an additional cluster of positive coefficients. Tests with permutated data show that more than 70% of the negative correlation coefficients for MS versus Mg and for MM versus Ca are both significantly different from zero at p<0.05, while less than 15% of those for MS versus Se are significant at the same level. For MM versus K the correlation coefficients are randomly distributed and not significantly different from zero. The described correlations may be effects of confounders and do not per se indicate any causal relationships. However, further research based on these results may well lead to the identification of possible aetiological factors.