An adaptive plan for prioritizing road sections for fencing to reduce animal mortality

Mortality of animals on roads is a critical threat to many wildlife populations and is poised to increase strongly because of ongoing and planned road construction. If these new roads cannot be avoided, effective mitigation measures will be necessary to stop biodiversity decline. Fencing along roads effectively reduces roadkill and is often used in combination with wildlife passages. Because fencing the entire road is not always possible due to financial constraints, high-frequency roadkill areas are often identified to inform the placement of fencing. We devised an adaptive fence-implementation plan to prioritize road sections for fencing. In this framework, areas along roads of high, moderate, and low levels of animal mortality (respectively, roadkill hotspots, warmspots, and coldspots) are identified at multiple scales (i.e., in circles of different diameters [200–2000 m] in which mortality frequency is measured). Fence deployment is based on the relationship between the amount of fencing being added to the road, starting with the strongest roadkill hotspots, and potential reduction in road mortality (displayed in mortality-reduction graphs). We applied our approach to empirical and simulated spatial patterns of wildlife–vehicle collisions. The scale used for analysis affected the number and spatial extent of roadkill hot-, warm-, and coldspots. At fine scales (e.g., 200 m), more hotspots were identified than at coarse scales (e.g., 2000 m), but combined the fine-scale hotspots covered less road and less fencing was needed to reduce road mortality. However, many short fences may be less effective in practice due to a fence-end effect (i.e., animals moving around the fence more easily), resulting in a trade-off between few long and many short fences, which we call the FLOMS (few-long-or-many-short) fences trade-off. Thresholds in the mortality-reduction graphs occurred for some roadkill patterns, but not for others. Thresholds may be useful to consider when determining road-mitigation targets. The existence of thresholds at multiple scales and the FLOMS trade-off have important implications for biodiversity conservation.     

测定废水BOD5时水样稀释倍数的确定

根据测定BOD5所须具备条件,经过理论推导,得出水样稀释倍数的大致范围,对多种工业废水测试证,表明方法简便易行。     

Sample size requirements for multiple regression interval estimation

Sample size planning is one of the most important issues in the design of a study. Simple and accurate sample size formulas for a desired confidence interval width have been developed for many statistical procedures, but a simple and accurate sample size formula for the squared multiple correlation has been a notable exception. Several rule‐of‐thumb sample size recommendations for a multiple regression analysis have been proposed over the years but none are satisfactory. Other approaches have focused on the construction of elaborate tables of sample size requirements, but these tables are both unwieldy and inadequate. We present a simple, accurate, and general method of approximating the sample size requirement for obtaining a squared multiple correlation confidence interval with desired precision. We also present a simple method for approximating the sample size needed to estimate unstandardized regression coefficients with desired precision. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国事故指标与经济社会发展指标多元回归分析

以安全生产相对指标工矿商贸十万就业人员生产安全事故死亡率为研究对象,通过文献调研分析,最终从经济发展、经济发展结构、经济活动水平和社会活动水平角度筛选出14个指标为观察对象,采用逐步多元回归分析法筛选出影响我国安全生产的主要经济社会发展指标为：第三产业增加值产值占GDP比重、第三产业就业人数占总就业人数的比重和固定资产投资增长速度,并建立了回归模型。应用弹性系数法对主要影响因素进行重要性排序,并推测工矿商贸就业人员十万人事故死亡率将保持持续下降的趋势。     

基于不同漏风源浅埋煤层采空区自燃“三带”分布规律研究*

为解决浅埋自燃煤层采空区因地表及工作面漏风而自燃的难题,以沙坪煤矿1818工作面为例,利用SF6示踪法检测采空区地表漏风通道和风速,利用FLUENT数值模拟分析不同漏风源采空区自燃“三带”分布的特征,并通过现场束管测试结果对比分析浅埋煤层采空区地表漏风对自燃“三带”分布的影响,同时限定工作面最小推进速度,确保工作面的安全生产。研究结果表明:地表漏风风速为0.06～0.30 m/s,漏风通道多且复杂;相比于工作面单一漏风源,有地表漏风存在时,自燃危险性加大;限定工作面最小推进速度为1.24 m/d。因此,多漏风源煤层开采条件下自燃“三带”分布的确定对浅埋藏自燃煤层采空区遗煤自燃预测预报及预防工作具有重要的指导和借鉴意义。     

基于数据填补-机器学习的煤与瓦斯突出预测效果研究*

为解决煤与瓦斯突出事故数据集少,数据缺失严重的问题,提出将多重插补（MI）和随机森林填补(MF)应用于填补缺失参数,并将填补前和填补后的数据输入SVM,ELM,RF 3种机器学习算法进行训练,构建9种耦合模型。采用总体准确率、局部准确率、运行时间这3种指标评价模型性能。研究结果表明:采用数据填补算法后,由于训练样本增大,煤与瓦斯突出事故预测的总体准确率提高,运行时间增长;MF-RF模型的总体准确率与事故预测准确率最高,分别为97.90%和98.93%;RD-ELM模型的运行时间最短,为0.24 s;多重插补使得煤与瓦斯突出预测的总体准确率提高0.98%~1.11%,随机森林填补总体准确率提高5.13%~7.50%,随机森林填补的效果好于多重插补。     

Practical implementation of cumulative-effects management of marine ecosystems in western North America

Globally, ecosystem structure and function have been degraded by the cumulative effects (CE) of multiple stressors. To maintain ecosystem resilience, there is an urgent need to better account for CE in management decision-making at various scales. Current laws and regulations are supported by a multitude of frameworks and strategies that vary in application and terminology use across management agencies and geopolitical boundaries. We synthesized management frameworks that accounted for CE in marine ecosystems at the regional and national levels across western North America (Canada, United States, Mexico) to identify similarities and shared challenges to successful implementation. We examined examples of solutions to the identified challenges (e.g., interagency and cross-border partnerships to overcome challenges of managing for ecologically relevant spatial scales). Management frameworks in general consisted of 3 phases: scoping and structuring the system; characterizing relationships; and evaluating management options. Challenges in the robust implementation of these phases included lack of interagency coordination, minimal incorporation of diverse perspectives, and data deficiencies. Cases that provided solutions to these challenges encouraged coordination at ecological rather than jurisdictional scales, enhanced involvement of stakeholders and Indigenous groups, and used nontraditional data sources for decision-making. Broader implementation of these approaches, combined with increased interagency and international coordination and collaboration, should facilitate the rapid advancement of more effective CE assessment and ecosystem management in North America and elsewhere.     

便携式气相色谱-氢火焰离子化检测器法测定低浓度总烃的氧气干扰特征研究

研究了采用便携式气相色谱-氢火焰离子化检测器法测定气体中的总烃浓度时,氧气浓度对测定结果的影响,并采用多元线性回归模型对总烃的测定结果进行了校准。当总烃的实际浓度不低于9 mg/m³时,氧气的干扰较小(相对标准偏差≤2%)。在试验的所有总烃实际浓度下(1~200 mg/m³),当氧气浓度为1%~7%时,也无需考虑氧气干扰的影响(相对标准偏差≤2%)。当总烃的实际浓度低于9 mg/m³且氧气浓度为9%~21%时,需依据多元线性回归分析原理并采用模型对测得的总烃浓度进行校准。线性回归方程分析结果显示,模型拟合情况良好(R²=0.999),可以用来修正测试结果,从而得到更加准确的总烃实际浓度。     

重点生态功能区生态资产保护成效及驱动力研究

重点生态功能区是保障国家生态安全、扩大绿色生态空间的重要区域,在实现全国生态资产保值增值方面发挥着重要作用。然而,现阶段围绕重点生态功能区生态资产保护成效及驱动力开展的研究较少。为明确重点生态功能区生态资产保护的驱动力以及存在的问题,本文利用遥感影像并结合图像解译、GIS空间分析和数理统计等方法对重点生态功能区内生态资产展开分析,并将其与非重点生态功能区进行比较。研究结果显示:重点生态功能区内森林、灌丛、草地和湿地生态资产总面积为349.30万km~2,优级和良级生态资产占生态资产总面积的42.42%,生态资产综合指数为21.19。15年间,重点功能区内生态资产总面积增加0.05%,优级和良级生态资产面积占比分别增加0.59%和0.85%,生态资产综合指数增加2.94。重点生态功能区生态资产面积和质量增幅均小于非重点生态功能区,然而重点生态功能区生态资产指数增量高于非重点生态功能区。生态恢复是驱动重点生态功能区生态资产面积变化的主因,对原有生态资产的保护是促进生态资产指数增加的最主要驱动力(贡献率达81%),城镇化和农业开发对生态资产的不利影响不容忽视(贡献率达-6.81%)。研究表明,对重点生态功能区生态资产保护成效显著,同时还有较大提升空间。本研究也为优化重点生态功能区的城镇化和农业开发的管理提供了证据和参考。     

南水北调东线水资源配置中的期权契约研究

针对南水北调东线实际和传统水资源配置方法的局限性。借鉴金融工程的理念。引入水期权契约作为市场机制下水资源配置的一种方式．用以提高干旱年水供给保证率、规避水价波动风脸，从而提高东线水资源使用价值。分析期权契约理论用于南水北调水资源配置的可行性。并根据东线受水区流域水资源供求缺口的影响因素分析．得出水价的均值回复特性。在上述分析基础上引入多次执行期权契约。考虑应用动态规划方法对期权价值进行求解。并通过算例分析验证了该方法的可行性．最后根据南水北调东线实际构建了水期权契约在东线的应用流程。