示踪技术用于气体泄漏扩散模拟的多元线性回归分析

采用江苏工业学院油气储运安全综合实验模型平台,利用示踪技术(以CO2为示踪剂),模拟了有害气体瞬时泄漏扩散的整个过程.并结合多元线性回归分析的基本方法,定量分析了气体泄漏扩散过程,建立了多元线性回归模型,初步确定了泄漏气体浓度与相关物理量的变化关系,在此基础上得到了2个定量评价指标:确定性系数R=0.991,相关系数r=0.995.研究表明,在实验室建立的试验模型能较好地反映现实情况,模型仿真度较高,数据拟合效果较好.研究可为评价模型的相似性提供理论参考,对有害气体泄漏扩散事故应急救援、实施有效的现场控制,具有一定的科学参考价值.     

A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species’ current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.     

以氢气为主要成分的其他可燃气体对低浓度甲烷爆炸特性的影响

为研究矿井火区中一氧化碳(CO)、氢气(H_2)、乙烯(C_2H_4)和乙烷(C_2H_6)等其他可燃气体对甲烷(CH_4)爆炸特性的影响,利用可视球形气体爆炸系统开展了多元可燃气体爆炸压力特性试验,观察并分析了峰值爆炸压力、最大爆炸压力上升速率及其相应时间。通过高速摄影系统拍摄了视窗范围内爆炸火焰传播图像,基于边缘检测方法确定了火焰前锋位置,继而得到最大火焰传播速度。分析了以氢气为主要成分的其他可燃气体对低浓度CH_4-空气混合物压力特性和火焰传播行为的影响。结果表明,多元可燃气体的存在增加了低浓度CH_4-空气混合物的爆炸危险性。随混合气体体积分数增加,低浓度CH_4-空气混合物的峰值爆炸压力、最大爆炸压力上升速率和最大火焰传播速度非线性增加;此外,到达峰值爆炸压力、最大爆炸压力上升速率的时间显著缩短。     

一种赤腹松鼠种群数量的估计方法

赤腹松鼠剥食树皮的行为对林木危害严重,根据野外长期的观察和研究发现,赤腹松鼠在剥落树皮上遗留下来的上门齿齿印间距具有个体差异,可以用作个体识别的依据.对2003年监测样地内赤腹松鼠在剥落树皮上的齿印间距测量记录,并统计分析以估计赤腹松鼠的个体数量.结果表明:种群数量与危害率的相关系数为0.876,P=0.01,表现出很强的正相关关系;显示在较小面积内,该方法可以用来估计赤腹松鼠的个体数量.同时对该方法的基本条件和局限进行了讨论.图2表4参10     

Effects of golden shiner (Notemigonuscrysoleucas ) nest association on host pumpkinseeds (Lepomisgibbosus ): evidence for a non-parasitic relationship

The reproductive success of male parental pumpkinseeds, Lepomisgibbosus, was studied in relation to the use of their nests by spawning golden shiners, Notemigonuscrysoleucas. The brood size of pumpkinseeds with and without golden shiner's young was compared in a field population. Mean egg and larval numbers of pumpkinseeds did not differ between broods with and without shiners, suggesting that shiners had no net effect on the fitness of host pumpkinseeds. In the laboratory, however, hatching success of pumpkinseed embryos was significantly lower with shiners than without. This difference was attributable to fungal infection. Against this fitness loss, the presence of shiner larvae reduced predation on pumpkinseed larvae in laboratory experiments. Thus, two counteracting mechanisms are proposed to account for no observed net effect on the host: (1) increased fungal infection on pumpkinseed embryos and (2) decreased predation on pumpkinseed young. Received: 10 January 1997 / Accepted after revision: 9 August 1997     

MODELING OF NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION OF NITROGEN AT THE WATERSHED SCALE1

ABSTRACT: The Watershed Nutrient Transport and Transformation (NTT-Watershed) model is a physically based, energy-driven, multiple land use, distributed model that is capable of simulating water and nutrient transport in a watershed. The topographic features and subsurface properties of the watershed are refined into uniform, homogeneous square grids. The vertical discretization includes vegetation, overland flow, soil water redistribution and groundwater zones. The chemical submodel simulates the nitrogen dynamics in terrestrial and aquatic systems. Three chemical state variables are considered (NO₃^-_-, NH₄⁺, and Org-N). The NTT-Watershed model was used to simulate the fate and transport of nitrogen in the Muddy Brook watershed in Connecticut. The model was shown to be capable of capturing the hydrologic and portions of the nitrogen dynamics in the watershed. Watershed planners could use this model in developing strategies of best management practices that could result in maximizing the reductions of nitrogen export from a watershed.     

测定氨氮的经验点滴

用纳氏比色法测定NH3-N时,在保证斜率不变(b=0.0037)的条件下,减少显色剂中HgCI2-KI三分之二的含量,聚乙烯醇做胶体稳定剂,显著提高了显色剂和显色的稳定度,并大大降低了空白吸光度.以KOH和酒石酸钾纳做缓冲溶液,并增加KOH一倍的含量,保持恒定的显色碱度,同时也掩蔽了金属离子的干扰.测定废水,先做一条件试验,确定氨氮废水的稀释比,是测定氨氮的重要步骤.     

引入稀释因素后的废水处理效果估算方法讨论

讨论了经稀释后废水处理时几种常州的污染物去除率及削减量的估算方法，通过实例分析了各估算方法的区别与联系，并提出了在选用估算方法时的注意事项。     

污水在水体中的稀释扩散及稀释度的计算

结合长江白龙港水域水力模型试验对污水排海工程中污水稀释扩散的机理进行了描述，并对污水的两种稀释度（浓度释稀度和体积稀释度）进行了分析比较，得出了在污染物本底值存在时两种稀释度之间的关系。