SERENDIPITY: CAPTURING A DESIGN LEVEL PRECIPITATION EVENT1

ABSTRACT: On February 23–24, 1998, a frontal system moved across the U.S. Department of Energy's 3,500 km² Nevada Test Site (NTS) and resulted in significant depths of precipitation at all recording gages on the NTS. A preliminary analysis suggested that this precipitation event was of the magnitude and duration for which many flood mitigation structures have been designed. Given the data and field observations available and the potential implications of the event on the methodologies used to size flood mitigation structures throughout the West, a detailed analysis of this event was undertaken. The goals of this study were to compare this event with the regulatory design precipitation event, compare the estimated peak flow rates from the rainfall/runoff model used to size the flood mitigation structures at a radioactive waste management site with the estimated peak flows from the precipitation event, and examine if modification of the standard source of the design depths of precipitation is warranted.     

清朝前期湖南旱灾研究

旱灾是清代前期湖南的主要自然灾害之一。它严重破坏了农业生产的季节性，并直接或间接的引发了社会性的饥荒。而在当时湖南的各种抗旱方式中，合理性与消极性并存。就这些抗旱方式的整体而言，其技术含量在传统农业社会中已达到了相对的饱和程度。     

施甸5.9级地震房屋震害分析

介绍了施甸５．９ 级地震房匡震害，分析了各类房屋在不同烈度区的综合震害指数，对典型房屋进行了震害预测计算并与实际震害作了对比，分析了震害原因，总结了这次地震防御和减轻震害的经验与教训，对地震灾区恢复重建提出了建议     

山区城镇泥石流减灾决策支持系统

山区城镇泥石流减灾决策支持系统是山区城镇泥石流减灾的重要手段之一。该系统由基础数据库、泥石流模型分析和泥石流减灾决策应用三大模块构成 ,其主要功能有降水、泥石流地声和运动监测及信息实时发送和接收、泥石流预报、泥石流危险范围预测与灾情预估、泥石流警报和临灾预案制定。其工作流程为 :降水监测仪将降水信息无线发送到控制中心主机 ,主机对降水信息处理后发送给泥石流预报模型进行泥石流预报 ,并利用泥石流危险性分区模型进行危险范围预测 ,同时进行灾情预估 ;泥石流地声监测仪将地声信号发送给主机 ,主机检测到泥石流地声后发出泥石流警报 ;泥石流运动监测仪将运动信息发送给主机 ,主机根据泥石流运动要素进行危险范围划定和灾情预估 ,最后制定临灾预案。     

近半世纪华北干旱化趋势研究

首先 ,提出了一种新的干湿指数 ,该指数的主要特点是它是相对于一地的水份需要量而言的 ,并且针对干旱的特点 ,考虑了前期降水对近期干旱现象的贡献。利用该指数 ,对我国华北近几十年来的干湿变化进行了讨论 ,发现近半个世纪以来 ,华北的干旱化趋势是十分明显的。其次 ,对华北干旱化的季节结构和周期性变化特点进行了研究 ,得出了一些有意义的结论。最后 ,讨论了近年来华北的连续干旱现象 ,指出近两年来的连续干旱是近 5 0年来最为严重的 ,并且到目前为止仍没有明显的结束趋势 ,值得我们进一步关注。     

Carbon forestry economic mitigation potential in India,by land classification

Carbon forestry mitigation potential estimates at the global-level are limited by the absence or simplicity of national-level estimates, and similarly national-level estimates are limited by absence of regional-level estimates. The present study aims to estimate the mitigation potential for a large diverse country such as India, based on the GTAP global land classification system of agro-ecological zones (AEZs), as well the Indian AEZ system. The study also estimates the implications of carbon price incentive (US$50 and $100) on mitigation potential in the short-, medium- and long-term, since afforestation and reforestation (A & R) is constrained by lack of investment and financial incentives. The mitigation potential for short and long rotation plantations and natural regeneration was estimated using the GCOMAP global forest model for two land area scenarios. One scenario included only wastelands (29 Mha), and the second enhanced area scenario, included wastelands plus long fallow and marginal croplands (54 Mha). Under the $100 carbon price case, significant additional area (3.6 Mha under the wasteland scenario and 6.4 Mha under the enhanced area scenario) and carbon mitigation is gained in the short-term (2025) compared to the baseline when using the GTAP land classification system. The area brought under A & R increases by 85–100% for the $100 carbon price compared to $50 carbon price in the short-term, indicating the effectiveness of higher carbon price incentives, especially in the short-term. A comparison of estimates of mitigation potential using GTAP and Indian AEZ land classification systems showed that in the short-term, 35% additional C-stock gain is achieved in the $100 carbon price case in the enhanced area scenario of the Indian AEZ system. This difference highlights the role of the land classification system adopted in estimation of aggregate mitigation potential estimates, particularly in the short-term. Uncertainty involved in the estimates of national-level mitigation potential needs to be reduced, by generating reliable estimates of carbon stock gain and losses, and cost and benefit data, for land use sector mitigation options at a scale disaggregated enough to be relevant for national mitigation planning.     

从理论到实践的美国排污交易

阐述了排污交易产生的背景，排污权与排放许可证的概念，ＴＤＰ的理论研究和实践应用，排污交易政策在美国的发展等。美国的排污交易政策由补偿政策、气泡政策、净得政策和排污银行４项组成，以美国酸雨计划为例说明了排污交易的巨大环境经济效益，并给出了建议。     

Achieving the Kyoto Protocol in the U.S.: How Great are the Needed Changes?

The Kyoto Protocol requires the U.S.to reduce the rate of emissions of six greenhousegases (GHG) to 93% of their 1990 rate and to achievethis target by the 2008 to 2012 commitment period. This study assesses the magnitude of change needed inthe U.S. economy and, specifically, in the U.S. energysector, to achieve and maintain the target establishedby the Kyoto Protocol. A simple carbon (C)emissions-energy model is explained in this analysisusing four key variables. Current and future trendsin C emissions are explained by: the carbon/energy(C/E) ratio, Gross Domestic Product growth, energyprices and an energy trend variable. Potential GHGmitigation policy actions affect C emissionsindirectly by affecting at least one of these keyvariables. The analysis concludes that reducingfossil energy use in the U.S. to meet the Kyoto GHGemissions reduction target would be very costly. Technological progress that reduces C emissions wouldnot be fully sufficient without prematurely abandoningproductive capital equipment. Energy price increasesof about 14% per year, or declines in economic growthof almost 5% per year, could reduce energy demand andassociated C emissions enough to achieve the terms ofthe Kyoto Protocol.     

基于空间聚类的中国东北气候分区及其气象干旱时间变化特征

近50年来,中国东北地区干旱化趋势明显,越来越频繁的干旱事件对该区域人民的生产和生活造成了严重的影响。基于1961-2016年中国地面降水和气温月值0.5°×0.5°格点数据,利用空间系统聚类方法对中国东北进行气候分区,通过标准化降水指数探讨了中国东北各亚区气象干旱的时间演变规律,并结合小波功率谱和小波全谱分析了各亚区干旱的周期变化特征。结果表明：（1）空间上,可将东北地区分为8个气候亚区,即西辽河平原半干旱农牧区、吉辽东部山地湿润农林区、呼伦贝尔高原半干旱牧业区、东北中部半湿润—半干旱农牧区、黑吉东部山地湿润农林区、大兴安岭北部湿润林业区、呼伦贝尔—黑河湿润—半湿润农林区、三江平原湿润农业区;（2）不同亚区的干旱事件时间演变特征存在明显差异,但大致都经历了3个干旱时期：1960s后期、1970s中后期至1980s前期、1990s后期至2000s;2000-2010年间东北地区干旱发生频率和影响范围最大,尤其是中、西部;（3）不同亚区干旱变化主要存在11年和3~8年的显著周期,第一主周期差异明显。研究结果对于弄清楚中国东北各亚区特有的气候变化驱动因素、制定气候均质区域干旱监测计划和水资源的管理具有重要的现实意义。     

Leakage and Comparative Advantage Implications of Agricultural Participation in Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation

The world is moving toward efforts to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. Reduction efforts may involve the agricultural sector through options such as planting of trees, altering crop and livestock management, and increasing production of biofuels. However, such options can be competitive with domestic food production. In a free trade arena, reduced domestic food production could stimulate increased production and exports in other countries, which are not pursuing net emission reductions. As a consequence, emission reduction efforts in implementing countries may be offset by production increases stimulated in other countries. We examine the competitive effects of agriculturally related emission reduction actions on agricultural production and international trade. In doing this, we employ the assumption that U.S. emission reduction caused cost increases will also occur in other reducing countries. We consider emission reduction: 1) unilaterally by the U.S., 2) by all Kyoto Protocol Annex B countries, and 3) globally. The results, which are only suggestive of the types of effects that would be observed due to the simplifying cost assumptions, indicate compliance causes supply cutbacks in regulated countries and increases in non-regulated countries. The study results show that producers in regulating countries are likely to benefit and consumers lose due to commodity price increases. Seniority of Authorship is shared among the first three authors.