基于SPEI和SPI指数的太原多尺度干旱特征与气候指数的关系

干旱是太原地区发生最频繁的自然灾害之一,出现的次数多、持续的时间长,对国民经济特别是农业生产造成了严重的影响.随着全球气候变暖、极端天气出现得越发频繁,太原干旱发生的频率和危害程度均呈上升趋势.基于1951-2012年月平均降水和气温资料,引入新的干旱指标：标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）,应用SPEI和SPI（标准化降水指数,简称：SPI）定量描述太原地区的62年来的干湿状况;基于月尺度SPEI和SPI指数,对太原月季尺度干旱变化做了分析,并利用交叉小波变换（XWT）探讨了干旱与大尺度气候因子之间的关系.结果表明：基于降水和蒸散的SPEI可以更灵活地反映月季干旱变化特征;交叉小波变换分析表明,太原地区的干旱与4个大尺度因子都具有6-12 a年代际主共振周期,在1980s都存在较好的相关性.SPEI和SPI与NAO通过显著性检验的6-12 a共振周期主要表在1985-2000年,序列在此频段上表现出一定的正位相共振关系;SPEI和SPI与WP在1955-1960年和1990-2000年分别表现出2-3 a和4-8 a显著的共振周期,存在明显的滞后相关,在1970-1990年具有10-16 a正位相显著共振关系.SPEI与PDO在1986-2000年之间存在4-6、8-14 a两个显著的共振周期,各自表现出负、正位相共振关系,在1955-1960年存在2-3 a共振周期,在此频段上SPEI显著滞后于PDO.与SPEI相比,SPI与PDO的相关性较弱,仅在1955-1960、1986-2000年出现了弱的共振关系.SPEI和SPI与PNA在1983-1995年表现出4-7 a的显著共振关系,反映了SPEI和SPI显著滞后于PNA.     

Temporary disaster debris management site identification using binomial cluster analysis and GIS

An essential component of disaster planning and preparation is the identification and selection of temporary disaster debris management sites (DMS). However, since DMS identification is a complex process involving numerous variable constraints, many regional, county and municipal jurisdictions initiate this process during the post‐disaster response and recovery phases, typically a period of severely stressed resources. Hence, a pre‐disaster approach in identifying the most likely sites based on the number of locational constraints would significantly contribute to disaster debris management planning. As disasters vary in their nature, location and extent, an effective approach must facilitate scalability, flexibility and adaptability to variable local requirements, while also being generalisable to other regions and geographical extents. This study demonstrates the use of binomial cluster analysis in potential DMS identification in a case study conducted in Hamilton County, Indiana.     

General overview of the disaster management framework in Cameroon

Efficient and effective disaster management will prevent many hazardous events from becoming disasters. This paper constitutes the most comprehensive document on the natural disaster management framework of Cameroon. It reviews critically disaster management in Cameroon, examining the various legislative, institutional, and administrative frameworks that help to facilitate the process. Furthermore, it illuminates the vital role that disaster managers at the national, regional, and local level play to ease the process. Using empirical data, the study analyses the efficiency and effectiveness of the actions of disaster managers. Its findings reveal inadequate disaster management policies, poor coordination between disaster management institutions at the national level, the lack of trained disaster managers, a skewed disaster management system, and a top‐down hierarchical structure within Cameroon's disaster management framework. By scrutinising the disaster management framework of the country, policy recommendations based on the research findings are made on the institutional and administrative frameworks.     

基于风险分析的城市防灾减灾规划编制——以地震规划为例

为减轻城市灾害损失,提出城市防灾减灾规划编制方法,将减灾规划分为准备、风险分析、编制和实施4个步骤。依据风险分析结果,制订防灾减灾规划目标、减灾措施及策略。给出典型的地震灾害风险分析方法。以某市为例,算出其各区域的地震风险。根据风险等级划分标准确定各区域的地震风险可接受水平。基于此结果在GIS平台上的表达,可知市内旧城区的地震风险很高,须立刻采取风险减缓措施。对减灾措施进行优化,结果表明:加快现有设防不足工程的抗震加固,严抓新建工程的抗震设防水准是提高该市抗震减震能力的关键。     

城市燃气管线泄漏致灾灾害链研究

为了研究城市燃气管线泄漏致灾灾害链,对灾害链的形成机理进行分析,建立灾害链模型,并通过计算灾害链发生概率对灾害链断链减灾方法进行研究。结果表明,城市燃气管线泄漏致灾灾害链可分为致灾环、激发环、损害环三部分;灾害链中因管道裂纹导致的中毒窒息灾害事故、管道穿孔导致的中毒窒息灾害事故及火灾等链条的发生概率较高;致灾环是灾害链断链减灾的关键环节,在城市安全管理中应落实应急预案制度并加强对城市居民的防灾减灾安全教育力度。     

对旱情的理性思考和构建新的监测、抗旱理念

对旱灾造成的损失,不能仅从农业粮食减产单方面估算,而应把旱灾造成的隐性损失科学评估出来。据此提出,抗旱要处理好农业用水、工业用水和城市用水及生态用水的关系,真正实现水资源的可持续利用,并应建立自动化的干旱监测和快速评估系统,以保证及时掌握旱情,将旱灾损失减至最小。     

西攀高速公路泥石流防治与对策

在野外调查与资料分析的基础上,总结了西攀高速公路沿线泥石流的分布特征,并通过分析典型泥石流防治工程的缺陷,提出在当前山区高速公路泥石流防治工程中,西攀高速公路泥石流防治中所暴露的问题具有代表性。针对高速公路与成昆铁路的空间位置关系,在成昆铁路沿安宁河已占有较好线位的条件下,根据成昆铁路防治泥石流的成功经验,提出了西攀高速公路泥石流防治工程的主要策略。     

改进剩余推力法及其在三板溪滑坡稳定研究中的应用

基于传统剩余推力法和Sarma法,提出改进剩余推力法,以位于三板溪电站进水口上游的滑坡体为例,说明了对水利水电工程诱发的滑坡灾害的评价和治理方法.采用剩余推力法和改进剩余推力法对三板溪滑坡的天然状态、水库蓄水、地震、库水位骤降等工况进行了稳定分析.结果显示,在水库蓄水、地震、库水位骤降工况下,该滑坡的稳定性低于设计标准,因此,须采取相应的加固措施.推荐了抗滑桩设计方案,已经在三板溪滑坡工程中成功实施.     

基于SPEI和SPI指数的青海省东部农业区春夏气象干旱特征的评估

青海省东部农业区是青海省重要的粮食生产基地,春夏干旱直接影响着该区农业的有序发展。论文选取青海省东部农业区13个气象站点1961-2014年平均月降水和气温数据,采用泰森多边形法、SPEI和SPI指数、R/S分析等方法对比评估了该区的春夏气象干旱演变特征。研究表明：1）近54 a SPEI和SPI指数显示青海省东部农业区干旱年际变化在2000年代前基本一致,2000年代后变化趋势发生变化;SPEI指数显示2000年代后春夏旱逐渐加重,SPI指数显示2000年代后春旱逐渐缓解该区干旱,气温是导致两者产生差异的主要原因。2）该区干旱面积覆盖率与干旱年际变化规律保持一致,两种指数主要在1990年代中期前后有所不同,1990年代中期后SPEI指数显示的春夏干旱覆盖面积要比SPI指数显示的广。3）SPEI和SPI指数在2000年代后春夏干旱频率呈相反趋势,SPEI指数显示的2000年代为干旱高频期,SPI指数为干旱低频期;两种指数均显示春旱高频区由西部转向东部地区,夏旱高频区由西北转向东南地区。4）根据干旱周期及R/S分析法,未来4~6 a该区春旱加重,北部地区为春旱高发区;未来18~22 a夏旱也有所加重,西部和东部地区为夏旱高发区。5）通过对比分析发现,SPEI指数在该区的适用性较好,能为该区干旱监测提供较为科学的理论依据。     

Drought risk reduction through a Socio-economic,Institutional and Physical approach in the northwestern region of Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, drought is seasonal and can destroy crops, causing hardship to poor agricultural labourers and others who cannot find alternative sources of income. Droughts most commonly affect the northwestern region, which generally has less rainfall than the rest of the country. In this context, this study attempts to measure the existing level of drought resilience with indicators related to Socio-economic, Institutional and Physical (SIP) conditions in two of the most drought-prone districts, namely Rajshahi and Chapai-Nawabganj. The results of 14 sub-districts (upazilas) show a variation of 2.41 (lowest resilience) and 3.61 (highest resilience) in a scale of 1–5. Some of the critical areas that need improvement include education and awareness, conflict resolution on water usage, policy enhancement, coordination among different stakeholders and proper land-use pattern. SIP methodology can be used as a rapid planning tool at the district level, and as a micro-level planning and improvement tool at the sub-district level. The tool has potential application for a participatory and process-based approach of engaging local stakeholders in minimizing drought risks in future.