Objective: Though it is common to refer to age-specific groups (e.g., children, adults, elderly), smooth trends conditional on age are mainly ignored in the literature. The present study examines the pedestrian injury risk in full-frontal pedestrian-to–passenger car accidents and incorporates age—in addition to collision speed and injury severity—as a plug-in parameter.
Methods: Recent work introduced a model for pedestrian injury risk functions using explicit formulae with easily interpretable model parameters. This model is expanded by pedestrian age as another model parameter. Using the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) to obtain age-specific risk proportions, the model parameters are fitted to the raw data and then smoothed by broken-line regression.
Results: The approach supplies explicit probabilities for pedestrian injury risk conditional on pedestrian age, collision speed, and injury severity under investigation. All results yield consistency to each other in the sense that risks for more severe injuries are less probable than those for less severe injuries. As a side product, the approach indicates specific ages at which the risk behavior fundamentally changes. These threshold values can be interpreted as the most robust ages for pedestrians.
Conclusions: The obtained age-wise risk functions can be aggregated and adapted to any population. The presented approach is formulated in such general terms that in can be directly used for other data sets or additional parameters; for example, the pedestrian's sex. Thus far, no other study using age as a plug-in parameter can be found. 相似文献
Background: Traffic accidents and traffic-related injuries and mortality have become a major public health concern in Iran. This study aimed to examine the role of drug and alcohol use in motor vehicle accidents in Iran.
Methods: This case–crossover study was conducted on 441 drivers who survived a road traffic crash and were taken to the emergency department of Shahid Rajaee trauma hospital in Shiraz, southern Iran. Data were collected using checklists that included demographic characteristics and drug and alcohol use prior to driving. Alcohol and drug use was identified through self-report, and cannabis, morphine, and methamphetamine urine tests were used to confirm drug abuse among drivers.
Results: In total 17.9% of drivers reported using drugs (cannabis, opium, or metamphetamine) and 8.84% of drivers reported consuming alcohol prior to the collision. The crude odds ratios (ORs) for having a crash for opium, cannabis, and metamphetamine were 1.94 (95% interval confidence [CI], 1.11–3.38), 2.37 (95% CI, 1.03–5.42), 5.5 (95% CI, 1.21–24.81), respectively, and for all drugs was 3.83 (95% CI, 2.28–6.43). The OR for alcohol was 3.5 (95% CI, 1.73–7.06) based on self-report.
Conclusion: Drug and alcohol use are increasing the risk of traffic crashes in Iran. Risk-reducing programs must be designed and implemented. 相似文献
Traditional approaches to the siting of potentially hazardous but regionally necessary facilities are often ineffective and lead to drawn-out legal disputes ultimately satisfactory to none of the parties. Research at MIT over the last decade has indicated five factors that may solve the siting puzzle. Application of these principles do not guarantee that a decision will not be disputed but may enhance the possibility of a wise and durable agreement. 相似文献
Objective: Streetcars/tram systems are growing worldwide, and many are given priority to increase speed and reliability performance in mixed traffic conditions. Research related to the road safety impact of tram priority is limited. This study explores the road safety impacts of tram priority measures including lane and intersection/signal priority measures.
Method: A before–after crash study was conducted using the empirical Bayes (EB) method to provide more accurate crash impact estimates by accounting for wider crash trends and regression to the mean effects. Before–after crash data for 29 intersections with tram signal priority and 23 arterials with tram lane priority in Melbourne, Australia, were analyzed to evaluate the road safety impact of tram priority.
Results: The EB before–after analysis results indicated a statistically significant adjusted crash reduction rate of 16.4% after implementation of tram priority measures. Signal priority measures were found to reduce crashes by 13.9% and lane priority by 19.4%. A disaggregate level simple before–after analysis indicated reductions in total and serious crashes as well as vehicle-, pedestrian-, and motorcycle-involved crashes. In addition, reductions in on-path crashes, pedestrian-involved crashes, and collisions among vehicles moving in the same and opposite directions and all other specific crash types were found after tram priority implementation.
Conclusions: Results suggest that streetcar/tram priority measures result in safety benefits for all road users, including vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists. Policy implications and areas for future research are discussed. 相似文献
ABSTRACTThis article examines systematic assessment practices linked to sustainable development policies. We consider five types of assessment—monitoring, policy evaluation, formal audit, peer review, and specialist reporting—and explore their fate in the policy and electoral politics cycles. In contrast to traditional views of the policy cycle, we note that systematic assessments provide complementary feedback around the entire policy cycle. However, despite this omnipresence, their policy relevance is usually severely limited, inter alia because the policy cycle captures only parts of the political reality. A major concern for politicians (but not necessarily for policy or governance scholars) that goes far beyond the formulation and implementation of policies is the broader cycle of electoral politics that determines the state's political personnel as well as government priorities. Here, we highlight that the findings of systematic assessments are often lost in a cacophony of voices to which politicians are more carefully attuned, such as media responses and opinion polls, implying that scientific evidence is simply ‘overwritten’ with other kinds of evidence representing alternative rationalities and priorities. Despite numerous shortcomings, the true value of systematic assessment practices lies in their potential to furnish ammunition to state and non-state actors interested in securing change. 相似文献
Although mismanagement of groundwater resources has resulted in their destruction over centuries, climate change is speeding up this process more than ever. On the one hand, urgent action by government bodies is needed to address the challenge. On the other hand, a vast body of literature proves that bottom-up collective action, although requiring a longer time period, is a better solution to manage such resources. This research aims to address this dilemma. The groundwater resource in Ardabil plain in Iran, which has long been managed solely through government intervention, has been chosen as a case study to explore the opportunities and limitations of managing a critically endangered area from a common pool resource perspective. Our study suggests that managing Ardabil groundwater resources should be conducted on two scales. The bottom-up institutional agreements should take place at village scale while the government should stay in charge of the overall organization at plain scale. 相似文献
In this study, we examine aspects of community values and perspectives on goods and services received from the river along with issues related to sustainable management of the river. The study reveals that the contemporary values placed on rivers by communities are mostly associated with recreational and leisure activities. The distance from the river and age of the participants appeared as the most influential social demographic factors affecting participants' perspectives on river health. The study indicates that people tend to develop a strong bond with the natural resources around them and the amount of time spent at a location is directly related to the strength of this relationship. To assess the general river condition and health, a number of visual indicators (e.g., floating debris) were suggested. If properly standardised and calibrated, such indicators have the potential to develop cost-effective monitoring tools for detecting seasonal and spatial changes in river health. 相似文献