Slope,aspect and climate: Spatially explicit and implicit models of topographic microclimate in chalk grassland

The slope and aspect of a vegetated surface strongly affects the amount of solar radiation intercepted by that surface. Solar radiation is the dominant component of the surface energy balance and influences ecologically critical factors of microclimate, including near-surface temperatures, evaporative demand and soil moisture content. It also determines the exposure of vegetation to photosynthetically active and ultra-violet wavelengths. Spatial variation in slope and aspect is therefore a key determinant of vegetation pattern, species distribution and ecosystem processes in many environments. Slope and aspect angle may vary considerably over distances of a few metres, and fine-scale species’ distribution patterns frequently follow these topographic patterns. The availability of suitable microclimate at such scales may be critical for the response of species distributions to climatic change at much larger spatial scales. However, quantifying the relevant microclimatic gradients is not straightforward, as the potential variation in solar radiation flux under clear-sky conditions is modified by local and regional variations in cloud cover, and interacts with long-wave radiation exchange, local meteorology and surface characteristics.     

Eco-hydrological modelling in a highly regulated lowland catchment to find measures for improving water quality

Water quality modelling in the meso-scale Rhin catchment in the German federal state Brandenburg was done (1) to answer some specific questions concerning identification of point and diffuse sources of nutrient pollution in the catchment, (2) to assess the influences of possible climate and land use changes on water quantity and quality and (3) to evaluate potential measures to be done in order to achieve a “good ecological status” of the river and its lakes as required by the Water Framework Directive (WFD).The Rhin catchment is a typical highly regulated lowland river basin in Northern Germany. The regulations complicate water quantity and quality modelling in the catchment. The research was done by using the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), which simulates water and nutrient fluxes in soil and vegetation, as well as transport of water and nutrients to and within the river network. The modelling period was from 1981 until 2005. After calibrating the hydrological processes at different gauges within the basin with satisfactory results, water quality (nitrogen and phosphorus) modelling was done taking into account the emissions of different point sources (sewage treatment plants, etc.) and identifying the amount of diffuse pollution caused mainly by agriculture.For suggesting some feasible measures to improve water quality and to reduce diffuse pollution considering possible climate and land use changes, different reasonable scenarios were applied in consultation with the Environmental Agency of Brandenburg (LUA). The study revealed that the amount of water discharge has significant influence on the concentration of nutrients in the river network, and that nitrogen pollution, caused mainly by diffuse sources, could be notably reduced by application of agricultural measures, whereas the pollution by phosphorus could be diminished most effectively by the reduction of point source emissions.     

吉林西部土地利用/覆被时空变化驱动力分析

针对吉林两部土地利用/覆被情况,基于TM影像,借助人机交互解译方法,结合1:10万地形图获得1986年、1996年、2000年和2004年的4期土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)矢量数据.利用土地利用动态度模型、土地利用转移矩阵.全面揭示研究区15年的LUCC时空变化特征,结果表明.盐碱地扩张,湿地、水域萎缩和草地退化已经成为吉林西部生态环境恶化的突出表现.结合研究区的实际情况选取总人口数、农业人口数、粮食总产置等12个指标作为LUCC:变化的丰十会经济驱动因子,借助多元线性回归模型,建立主要土地利用类型的驱动力模型.结果表明吉林西部土地利用变化的最主要社会经济因子是农业人口数、农民人均纯收入、农业生产技术(农业机械总动力、化肥施用量)和农村用电量,同时提出相应的生态环境保护和社会经济措施.     

颗粒活性炭对水中邻苯二甲酸二甲酯的吸附特性

研究了颗粒活性炭(GAC)对水中邻苯二甲酸二甲酯(DMP)的静态与动态吸附特性.结果表明,Freundlich和Langmuir等温线模型可以较好的拟合GAC对DMP的吸附.GAC对DMP的吸附容量较大,溶液初始浓度为200mg/L时,GAC对DMP的动态和最大静态吸附容量分别为484.60,450.89mg/g.考察了不同流速条件下(0.65～4.00mL/min)GAC吸附DMP的穿透特性,Yoon-Nelson模型能很好地拟合DMP在GAC柱中的穿透曲线,根据试验数据和Yoon-Nelson模型计算出穿透参数K′、T和穿透点t1以及平衡点t2.在建立了进水流量与Yoon-Nelson穿透模型的参数之间的关系基础上,得到了活性炭柱出水浓度与进水流量和穿透时间之间的动态关系模型.     

餐厨垃圾和剩余污泥厌氧混合发酵过程的动态膜强化特性研究

比较了厌氧动态膜生物反应器（DMBR）与完全混合式反应器（CSTR）在处理餐厨垃圾（FW）和剩余污泥（WAS）时的发酵产气过程,验证了高负荷餐厨垃圾和剩余污泥混合发酵时DMBR系统运行的稳定性,考察了动态膜（DM）基材孔径（300目、200目和100目）对DMBR运行性能及其固液分离效果的影响.结果表明：一体式DMBR能够强化餐厨垃圾和剩余污泥混合发酵的高负荷稳定运行,DMBR过膜滤液中平均总挥发性脂肪酸（TVFA）为86.1 mg·L^-1,低于CSTR排泥中TVFA的浓度（527.3 mg·L^-1）.当动态膜基材孔径为300目时,DMBR过膜滤液中总有机物（TCOD）为（1.6±1.1）g·L^-1,相应的固液分离效果优于200目（（3.2±1.9）g·L^-1）和100目（（32.0±1.3）g·L^-1）动态膜基材,即当动态膜基材孔径为100目时,DMBR过膜滤液中TCOD比300目动态膜基材高6.7倍.与200目动态膜基材孔径相比,300目动态膜基材相应的跨膜压差增长缓慢,反洗频率和运行能耗均较低,而100目动态膜基材孔径过大,固液分离效果较低.因此,在高负荷餐厨垃圾和剩余污泥混合发酵系统中,选用300目动态膜基材形成的动态膜过滤效果最优.此外,本文还对比分析了有机废物和废水处理领域中较优的动态膜基材孔径及DMBR的应用情况,为拓展DMBR在有机物处理领域的应用提供依据.     

Evolving patterns of agricultural frontier expansion in Mexico’s Chihuahuan Desert: a political ecology approach

ABSTRACT

This study sought to understand why and how the area of irrigated agriculture in Janos County, in northwestern Chihuahua, Mexico, has tripled since 1987. Expansion of agricultural frontiers has often been attributed to state policies and programs or von Thünian land-rent dynamics. Here, a political ecology approach relying on qualitative interviews with landowners was used to understand the drivers and patterns of conversion from native rangeland to crops. Results show that socioeconomic patterns of agricultural frontier expansion evolved over time, with different drivers at different phases. State policies, especially the land reform, were initially important for settling the agriculture frontier in small farms. Subsequently, economic differentiation, intensification, and growth of existing farms drove expansion. Since 2010, expansion has been driven by investment-oriented land purchases by absentee owners and larger-than-family farms. The Janos case details what may be common but underappreciated temporal dynamics at agricultural frontiers.     

A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

江苏省植被NPP时空特征及气候因素的影响

利用2000—2006年的EOS/MODIS卫星遥感资料,对江苏省植被净初级生产力（NPP）时空特征及气候变化对其影响进行分析。在ArcGIS软件中,建立线性回归方程获得NPP的变化斜率,分析7 a间各像元NPP的空间变化趋势。计算各像元的NPP数值与气候要素的线性相关系数,为定量阐述气候变化对植被生长的影响提供依据。结果表明,江苏省植被NPP 7 a平均值为506.6 g.m-2.a-1（以C计）,比全国同期NPP数值高出约40%。NPP表现出明显的年际变化,2004年植被年均NPP最大为530.6 g.m-2.a-1（以C计）,2000年最小,为481.1 g.m-2.a-1（以C计）。空间分布上NPP表现为东南高于西北,沿海高于内陆。2000—2006年江苏省有76%的区域植被NPP表现为显著增加,仅江苏南部少数区域表现出减少的趋势。除苏南少数区域外,气候因素控制着NPP的时空变化规律。其中气温的升高和太阳辐射的增加促进NPP提高,而降水量的增加引起NPP的降低。     

资源型城市土地利用变化及其对生态系统服务价值的影响

东营市是新兴的石油资源城市,土地利用/覆被变化剧烈且具有独特的区域特征。探讨该地区的土地利用变化及其对生态系统服务价值的影响有着重要的现实意义。为此,基于RS和GIS技术,利用Costanza提出的生态系统服务价值评估方法,研究了东营市1986—2008年间的土地利用变化及其引起的生态系统服务价值动态变化。研究结果表明：（1）耕地是东营市主要的土地利用类型,面积有所减少;未利用地和次生盐碱地所占比重较大,居民点及工矿用地大幅增加,油田生产建设和生态环境保护矛盾非常突出。（2）生态系统服务价值减少了6.68%。2008年东营市提供的生态服务仍然以维护原材料、气体调节、食物生产、气候等为主,而废物处理、水源涵养、生物多样性保护、土壤形成与保护和娱乐文化功能是比较弱的。今后应维护生物多样性保护和水源涵养功能,防止土壤盐渍化,提升区域生态系统服务功能;（3）生态系统服务价值对生态价值系数的敏感性指数均小于1,说明研究区内的生态系统服务价值缺乏弹性,研究结果是可信的。     

Effects of temperature variation on TSD in turtle (C. picta) populations

We formulate a two-sex model of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) for a freshwater turtle (C. picta) population. The aim is to understand how environmental temperature variations and nest heat conduction properties affect the long term dynamics of the population. This is a key to understanding how global temperature changes may affect their survival. With stochastic inputs of ambient temperature and solar radiation, the model uses the heat equation to determine the temperature in the egg layer in the nest; in turn, this determines the sex ratio in the egg clutch using a variable degree-day model. Finally, a nonlinear Leslie type, stage-based, two-sex model, is used to determine the long term male and female populations. A two-sex model is required because of different development rates for males and females. The model is flexible enough to enable other researchers to examine the effects of temperature variation variations on other species with TSD, e.g., crocodilians, reptilians, as well as other turtle species. It can be adapted to study effects of nest location, soil type, rain events, different incubation periods, and density effects, for example, the dependence of the mating function on the ratio of males to females and each’s contribution to the sex of hatchlings. Modifications can be easily made to fit a specific life history traits. The model is a beginning step in understanding the long term, high fitness shown by many reptile species with TSD, and it may suggest to experimentalists what data may be relevant to these issues; it can also be useful to wildlife managers in developing strategies for intervention if needed. Among the principal findings are that temperature variability and detailed nest heat conduction properties may buffer projected negative effects on a population.