Pressures,trends, and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems

This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning.     

气候变化与自然灾害

气候变化与自然灾害是当今科学研究的两大热点，两者之间在一定程度上具有相关性，但目前要确切地定量计算气候变化对自然灾害的强度和出现频率的影响还很困难。本文在分析气候变化与自然灾害关系的基础上，研究了气候变化对我国自然灾害的影响。研究结果显示：１．在千年尺度上，长江流域的大旱和气候变冷成正相关，而长江流域的大涝以及黄河流域的大旱和大涝与气候冷暖过渡期成正相关；２．在百年尽度上，近１０４２年来，共出现２８１次全国性大旱和大涝，平均每百年出现２７次，在地域分布上以南涝北旱为主；３．就百年至千年尺度的气候变化对自然灾害的影响而言，气候冷冷组合期（１３０１～１９００）易发生全国性大涝，而冷暖组合期（９５０～１３００年，１９０１～１９９１年）易发生全国性大旱。总的来说，冷冷组合期的大旱大涝发生频率明显大于暖期，但不同地区有差异；４．在其它影响方面，台风、地震与海啸灾害在冷暖组合期（２０世纪）均有比冷冷组合期（１４和１９世纪）多的趋势。因此，气候变暖将使防灾任务更加艰巨。     

渭河径流特性研究

由于工农业的快速发展,渭河径流逐年减少,污染加重,河道淤积不断发展,洪涝灾害时有发生,对中下游人民生产生活造成严重影响.为了减少洪害,减轻污染,必须保证渭河常年径流稳定.     

土-地下结构的非线性动力相互作用——理论及应用

基于土-结构动力相互作用理论，阐述了土-地下结构非线性动力相互作用的基本原理及其建模方法。根据这一方法，对1995年日本阪神地震中震害最为严重的大开地铁车站进行了成灾机理有限元数值模拟分析。分析结果表明：在地震动作用下，车站结构顶板与侧墙的交叉部位，和中柱的顶底端首先发生弯曲破坏而形成塑性铰，使得顶板上覆土的大部分重量传递到由中柱来承担；在由顶板破坏后传来的上覆土重力和地震动在中柱中引起的压应力的共同作用下，中柱发生压曲和弯曲的双重破坏，导致中柱倒塌，进而导致车站顶板塌陷；同时还表明，水平向地震作用仍是造成大开地铁站结构破坏的主要因素。     

生活事件分析法在煤矿企业中的应用

我国煤矿一再的发生事故,绝大部分原因是人为失误.根据人为失误的发生机理,本文提出了生活事件分析方法,并研制了其配套应用程序,对某煤矿企业的人因事故危险性进行了实际评价.该方法可方便地应用于煤矿企业人为事故的预防工作中.     

The GaNE programme in a global perspective

This paper provides the background to this special issue, outlining the extent to which the global atmospheric nitrogen cycle has been modified by human activity and outlining the range of effects. The global total emissions of reduced and oxidized nitrogen, amount to 124 Tg N, and exceed those from natural sources (34 Tg N) by almost a factor of four showing the extent to which anthropogenic activity has taken over the global N cycle. Of the 124 Tg N, 70 Tg N is emitted in the oxidized form, largely as NO and 70% of which results directly from anthropogenic activity. The remaining 54 Tg N is emitted as NH₃, (66% anthropogenic). The enhanced nitrogen emissions are associated with a range of local, regional and global issues including, acidification, eutrophication, climate change, human health and tropospheric O₃. The paper also places the Global Nitrogen Enrichment (GaNE) research programme in the UK in a wider perspective.     

CO2-free paper?

Black liquor gasification–combined cycle (BLGCC) is a new technology that has the potential to increase electricity production of a chemical pulping mill. Increased electricity generation in combination with the potential to use biomass (e.g. bark, hog fuel) more efficiently can result in increased power output compared to the conventional Tomlinson-boiler. Because the BLGCC enables an integrated pulp and paper mill to produce excess power, it can offset electricity produced by power plants. This may lead to reduction of the net-CO₂ emissions. The impact of BLGCC to offset CO₂ emissions from the pulp and paper industry is studied. We focus on two different plant designs and compare the situation in Sweden and the US. The CO₂ emissions are studied as function of the share of recycled fibre used to make the paper. The study shows that under specific conditions the production of “CO₂-free paper” is possible. First, energy efficiency in pulp and paper mills needs to be improved to allow the export of sufficient power to offset emissions from fossil fuels used in boilers and other equipment. Secondly, the net-CO₂ emission per ton of paper depends strongly on the emission reduction credits for electricity export, and hence on the country or grid to which the paper mill is connected. Thirdly, supplemental use of biomass to replace fossil fuel inputs is important to reduce the overall emissions of the pulp and paper industry.     

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES ON A GREAT LAKES COMMUNITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.     

基于可接受安全间距的单车道交通流模拟模型

交通流微观模拟是采用计算机对交通流进行描述及分析的方法。尤其对于复杂的交通流而言,微观模拟具有明显的优势,然而模拟的准确与否,关键在于模型的建立。笔者即是在研究我国单车道交通流特点的基础上,借鉴车道变换理论,基于驾驶员可接受的交通安全间距,分析安全变换车道的各间距之间的关系,阐述了有超车的单车道交通流模拟模型的建立方法     

对地铁工程风险评估体系框架的研究

地铁工程同一般建设项目相比,受不可预见的水文地质条件、社会环境、施工技术的可靠度、经济发展的程度等多方面因素的影响较重;就必然使地铁工程成为高风险的工程建设项目,然而目前对其风险评估工作还停留在简单的定性和定量的评估水平上。为此,笔者在研究系统论的基础上,从动态系统风险评估的观点出发,运用动态控制的原理,着重研究适合于地铁工程风险评估体系的理论框架,及建立理论框架时应考虑的诸多问题;同时对动态系统风险评估、评价因素可靠性分析技术、各种风险评估方法及评估技术的运用做了简要论述。该框架体系不仅适用于地铁工程的风险评估,同样适用于其他复杂的工程系统的风险评估评价。