地统计学在土壤重金属研究中的应用及展望

从采矿学与地质学研究中发展起来的地统计学是应用数理统计学的一个分支。与传统的统计学相比，地统计学可应用于土壤重金属研究中，能探索土壤重金属的空间分布特征及其变异规律。地统计学的基础理论与方法主要包括：区域化变量、半方差函数、克立格空间插值技术。半方差函数可以用来描述研究土壤重金属分布的空间相关性；而克立格插值可以对未采样区土壤重金属的含量进行无偏最优估计。在对地统计学理论进行简要阐述的基础上，回顾了近些年在土壤重金属研究的采样设计、空间结构分析、空间插值等方面的应用，并就其应用前景作了展望。     

洞庭湖生态功能保护的必要性和效益评估

保护具有重要生态功能地区的生态环境，是我国实施可持续发展战略的重要措施。洞庭湖是长江流域极重要的调蓄滞洪区，在维系长江江湖水系和水域生态平衡等方面，发挥着巨大的作用，是国家进行生态功能保护区建设的重点地区之一。文章对洞庭湖生态功能保护的必要性和效益进行了分析和评估。     

珠江三角洲经济区农业生态环境现状与对策

珠江三角洲经济区耕地锐减，水资源分布不均，工业和农业污染严重，农业生态环境日趋恶化。经济发展不平衡，农业趋于萎缩状态，本文针对这些问题，提出了珠江三角洲农业生态环境治理的指导思想、发展目标和基本措施。     

地理信息系统支持下的城市生态环境功能区划

本文以马鞍山市为例，利用地理信息系统软件－－ＩＤＲＩＳＩ进行ＧＩＳ支持下的城市生态环境功能区划，以生态环境适宜度分析方法进行了工业用地、居住用地、综合用地的适宜度分析，并以此为基础划分了城市生态环境功能区，最后，讨论了ＧＩＳ支持下的城市生态环境功能区划的优势与不足以及发展趋势。     

生态环境质量物元可拓评价及实例分析

生态环境质量评价属于环境质量评价的重要方面。为了探索建立生态环境质量评价的方法，尝试运用物元可拓的方法来建立生态环境质量评价模型，并且通过用该方法对土壤生态环境质量评价实例验证物元可拓方法的可行性，得到该土壤生态环境质量评价等级值为3．73。从而为尚处在探索发展阶段的生态环境质量评价方法提供一种新思路。     

Spatial assessment of ecosystem functions and services for air purification of forests in South Korea

Ecosystem functions can be understood as the quantified amount of an ecosystem’s role in a natural process, while ecosystem services are the requantification of the ecosystem functions by factoring in environmental conditions and human needs based on social perspectives. In this study, differences between ecosystem functions and services were presented in terms of air purification of a forest ecosystem. Forest volume growth was employed to quantify the pollutant absorption capacity of a forest and was indicated by the natural functions (NF) for air purification by a forest ecosystem. Forest ecosystem services can be requantified from the forest functions by adding the air pollutant and population densities. Air pollutant density was applied to the assessment of the environmental services (ES) of forest ecosystems. Furthermore, the environmental social services (ESS) of forest ecosystems were assessed by including population density considerations. We simulated differences in NF, ES, and ESS in relation to pollutant and population density; while NF was spatially quantified without a close relationship to air pollutant and population density, ES and ESS reacted to environmental and social condition more sensitively. These results imply that the ecosystem services of forest resources for air purification are high where the pollutant and population densities are high, while the ecosystem functions of forest resources for air purification depend solely on forest conditions and not on the density changes of air pollutants and population. This study suggests that the differences in NF, ES, and ESS are important factors to be understood and considered in the decision-making process for ecosystem services. When considering human needs and surrounding environmental conditions, the results suggest that decision makers should utilize the ES and ESS concepts, which reflect both population and pollutant density along with additional human-related factors.     

COMPARISON OF REGRESSION AND TIME-SERIES METHODS FOR SYNTHESIZING MISSING STREAMFLOW RECORDS1

ABSTRACT: Regression and time-series techniques have been used to synthesize and predict the stream flow at the Foresta Bridge gage from information at the upstream Pohono Bridge gage on the Merced River near Yosemite National Park. Using the available data from two time periods (calendar year 1979 and water year 1986), we evaluated the two techniques in their ability to model the variation in the observed flows and in their ability to predict stream flow at the Foresta Bridge gage for the 1979 time period with data from the 1986 time period. Both techniques produced reasonably good estimates and forecasts of the flow at the downstream gage. However, the regression model was found to have a significant amount of autocorrelation in the residuals, which the time-series model was able to eliminate. The time-series technique presented can be of great assistance in arriving at reasonable estimates of flow in data sets that have large missing portions of data.     

三峡库区几种林下苔藓的保水功能

通过对三峡库区三种森林类型(松栎混交林、栓皮栎纯林、马尾松纯林)林下苔藓储量调查分析及其持水特性试验，得到不同森林类型林下苔藓储量、最大持水量、吸水速率等水文特征参数。结果表明，马尾松纯林林下苔藓储量最大(12．93t／hm^2)，松栎混交林和栓皮栎纯林林下苔藓储量相同(9．47t／hm^2)。松栎混交林林下苔藓最大持水量为5．36mm，栓皮栎纯林为5．73mm，马尾松纯林为6．26mm。研究结果还表明，三峡库区林下苔藓持水量随时间变化过程与森林类型无关。在只有苔藓覆盖情况下，不同森林类型林内不产生水分下渗和地表径流时的最大降雨量和最大降雨雨强分别为：松栎混交林林地5．36mm，5．820mm／h；马尾松纯林林地6．26mm，7．420mm／h；栓皮栎纯林林地5．73mm，6．060mm／h。     

基于Copula函数的汉江中上游流域极端降雨洪水联合分布特征

选取汉江中上游流域作为研究对象,根据流域九个气象站点1969~2008年逐日降雨资料以及丹江口水库同时期日入库流量资料,采用年最大值法(AM)和百分位法两种选样方式选取1 d、3 d降雨和1 d、3 d洪量极值样本,分别运用广义极值分布(GEV)、广义帕累托分布(GPD)、伽玛分布(Gamma)3种极值统计模型对样本进行单变量边缘分布拟合,运用Gumbel、Clayton以及Frank Copula函数模型对样本进行多变量联合分布拟合,遴选出描述流域降雨和洪水联合分布规律的最优概率模型。结果显示:对于AM选样样本,边缘分布为GEV时降雨洪量的二维和三维联合分布Frank Copula函数拟合效果最优;对于百分位选样样本,边缘分布为GPD时降雨洪量的二维联合分布Gumbel Copula函数拟合效果最优,三维联合分布则是Frank Copula函数拟合效果最优;比较二维和三维Copula函数模拟结果,三维联合Copula函数推求的设计值更大,说明三维联合分布考虑了更多的变量和极值信息,能更全面地反映极端降雨洪水事件的真实特征,对工程设计更显安全。     

推进我国减灾事业的三个支柱

本文阐述推进我国减灾事业的3个支柱,即:(1)发挥政府的主导作用;(2)重视科学技术在减灾中的作用;(3)依靠全民的参与。