Extinction Rate Estimates for Plant Populations in Revisitation Studies: Importance of Detectability

Abstract:  Many researchers have obtained extinction-rate estimates for plant populations by comparing historical and current records of occurrence. A population that is no longer found is assumed to have gone extinct. Extinction can then be related to characteristics of these populations, such as habitat type, size, or species, to test ideas about what factors may affect extinction. Such studies neglect the fact that a population may be overlooked, however, which may bias estimates of extinction rates upward. In addition, if populations are unequally detectable across groups to be compared, such as habitat type or population size, comparisons become distorted to an unknown degree. To illustrate the problem, I simulated two data sets, assuming a constant extinction rate, in which populations occurred in different habitats or habitats of different size and these factors affected their detectability. The conventional analysis implicitly assumed that detectability equalled 1 and used logistic regression to estimate extinction rates. It wrongly identified habitat and population size as factors affecting extinction risk. In contrast, with capture-recapture methods, unbiased estimates of extinction rates were recovered. I argue that capture-recapture methods should be considered more often in estimations of demographic parameters in plant populations and communities.     

燃用甲醇燃料的发动机尾气排放

本文主要报导了在二冲程、四冲程汽油机及柴油机上燃用甲醇-汽油混合燃料、M_(100)甲醇燃料的发动机尾气排放方面所做的研究,并与燃用汽油、柴油的尾气排放进行了对照。结果表明,无论是甲醇-汽油混合燃料,还是M_(100)甲醇燃料尾气排放,都较汽油、柴油尾气排放的常规污染物,均有不同程度的减少。因此,应用甲醇燃料对改善环境是有益的。     

Lifting technique and abdominal belt usage: a biomechanical, physiological and subjective investigation

Some 10 male subjects carried out a repetitive lifting task for 15 min under four conditions on separate days. Subjects used either a squat lifting or a stoop lifting technique with or without an abdominal belt on each day. Measurements of spinal shrinkage, heart rate, perceived exertion and regional body pain were made under each condition. Although there was a significant difference in spinal shrinkage under all lifting conditions compared with shrinkage during 15 min of quiet standing (4.36 ± 2.24 vs. 1.13 ± 1.18 mm), there were no significant differences in shrinkage between the conditions. The subjects' heart rates were higher during the squat lift than the stoop lift (123 vs. 97 beats/min; p < 0.001). While the squat lift was perceived to be the safest lift by 90% of the subjects, 60% regarded this lift as the least preferred method (with or without the belt). Although all 10 subjects perceived the safest lifting method to involve the use of the belt, 50% rated the belt as their least preferred lifting condition. The findings cast doubt on the efficacy and acceptability of both abdominal belts and the practice of training workers in ‘safe’ lifting techniques and indicate that individual characteristics and preferences need to be considered when attempting to improve the safety of manual handling operations in industry.     

煤矿井下气候参数和劳动强度对矿工生理参数影响的研究

对机械化采煤工作面的采煤机司机和支柱工的劳动心率和能量代谢进行了现场实测。就气候参数和劳动强度对作业人员的生理参数影响进行了模拟实验,取得一些实验研究成果。对改善劳动条件和作业环境,提高生产效率,保护井下矿工的身心健康与安全,提供了科学依据。     

脉冲电晕放电等离子体烟气脱硫技术研究

通过实验模拟烟气,观察SO_2在一种特殊的脉冲电晕放电等离子体环境中的氧化变化过程,研究了烟气温度、SO_2初始浓度等参数对SO_2氧化率、单位能量氧化量的影响规律。     

基于人工神经网络模型预测ABR反应器处理效率

ABR反应器的处理效率受多方面的因素影响，本文通过BP人工神经网络，利用ABR反应器进水CODcr浓度、容积负荷、温度、稳定运行时间四个参数对其反应器处理效率进行预测。结果表明，BP人工神经网络可较好的用于ABR反应器处理效率的预测，具有较高的精度，在实际生产中，可以运用人工神经网络，对ABR反应器的运行参数进行调整，使之达到最优化的运行状态。     

总量控制费用分摊的多目标规划模型及解法

文章指出了污染物总量控制规划中公平合理分摊优化治理投资费用的重要性，分析了现有的优化治理投资费用分摊方法存在的问题，建立了公平合理分摊优化治理投资费用的多目标规划模型，提出用最短距离理想点法加以求解，并通过实例验证了该方法的合理性。结果表明该模型及解法既可以保证总量控制规划方案的社会整体效益最大，又不失公平，从而确保总量控制规划方案的顺利实施。     

Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry

Many proposed activities formitigating global warming in the land-use change and forestry(LUCF) sector differ from measures to avoid fossilfuel emissions because carbon (C) may be held out ofthe atmosphere only temporarily. In addition, thetiming of the effects is usually different. Many LUCFactivities alter C fluxes to and from the atmosphereseveral decades into the future, whereas fossil fuelemissions avoidance has immediate effects. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are animportant part of emissions from deforestation inlow-latitude regions, also pose complications forcomparisons between fossil fuel and LUCF, since themechanism generally used to compare these gases(global warming potentials) assumes simultaneousemissions. A common numeraire is needed to expressglobal warming mitigation benefits of different kindsof projects, such as fossil fuel emissions reduction,C sequestration in forest plantations, avoideddeforestation by creating protected areas and throughpolicy changes to slow rates of land-use changes suchas clearing. Megagram (Mg)-year (also known as`ton-year') accounting provides a mechanism forexpressing the benefits of activities such as these ona consistent basis. One can calculate the atmosphericload of each GHG that will be present in each year,expressed as C in the form of CO₂ and itsinstantaneous impact equivalent contributed by othergases. The atmospheric load of CO₂-equivalent Cpresent over a time horizon is a possible indicator ofthe climatic impact of the emission that placed thisload in the atmosphere. Conversely, this index alsoprovides a measure of the benefit of notproducing the emission. One accounting methodcompares sequestered CO₂ in trees with theCO₂ that would be in the atmosphere had thesequestration project not been undertaken, whileanother method (used in this paper) compares theatmospheric load of C (or equivalent in non-CO₂GHGs) in both project and no-project scenarios.Time preference, expressed by means of a discount rateon C, can be applied to Mg-year equivalencecalculations to allow societal decisions regarding thevalue of time to be integrated into the system forcalculating global warming impacts and benefits. Giving a high value to time, either by raising thediscount rate or by shortening the time horizon,increases the value attributed to temporarysequestration (such as many forest plantationprojects). A high value for time also favorsmitigation measures that have rapid effects (such asslowing deforestation rates) as compared to measuresthat only affect emissions years in the future (suchas creating protected areas in countries with largeareas of remaining forest). Decisions on temporalissues will guide mitigation efforts towards optionsthat may or may not be desirable on the basis ofsocial and environmental effects in spheres other thanglobal warming. How sustainable development criteriaare incorporated into the approval and creditingsystems for activities under the Kyoto Protocol willdetermine the overall environmental and social impactsof pending decisions on temporal issues.     

农药污染环境质量评价

本文根据计算排毒系数的方法确定了主要污染源和污染物,又根据食入、饮进、呼吸等量建立了权重系统,由此而计算了中国不同农业区域的污染指数。结果表明,重污染区集中在长江、黄河流域的粮、棉产区,而且我国农业环境中BHC、DDT污染程度是向南或向北逐渐减弱。     

锡工业砷和铅排放标准的初步研究

根据污染源现场调研结果,结合现有污染控制工艺所能达到的技术水平,建议污水排放标准中As浓度由现国家排放标准的0 5mg/L调整为0 1mg/L;Pb不变为1 0mg/L。大气污染物排放标准中As和Pb不变为1 0mg/L。大气污染物排放标准As和Pb的浓度限值分别是为0 5mg/m3和0 7mg/m3。