盐池北部风沙区土地利用变化的社会经济效应

以盐池北部风沙区为研究区域,利用1996—2007年土地利用变更调查与社会经济统计数据,借助典型相关分析,提取沙区农村土地利用变化对社会经济发展影响的主要方面。结果表明：（1）研究区土地利用变化对农村经济总体水平、经济结构、社会发展具有显著影响;（2）种植业、林业、牧业产值与粮食总产量是衡量研究区农村经济总体水平的重要指标,耕地、林地、居民点、沙地组成对其影响显著;（3）人口产业结构与居民收入结构反映了研究区农村社会发展、劳动力就业情况,受林地和沙地组成影响较大;（4）林地和沙地组成对地区农业结构,尤其是林业产值比重影响较大。沙区土地利用变化的社会经济效应分析,为土地利用结构调整方向提供依据,目的是促进沙区种植业结构调整、林牧业发展、农村劳动力合理分配。     

Models-as-usual for unusual risks? On the value of catastrophic climate change

We study the role of intertemporal preference representations in a model of economic growth, stock pollutant and endogenous risk of catastrophic collapse. We contrast two polar instances of risk-sensitive preferences: the traditional “discounted utility” model, which imposes a positive rate of pure time preference and risk neutrality with respect to intertemporal utility, and multiplicatively separable preferences, which display risk aversion in that dimension but no pure time preferences. We show that both representations of preferences can rationalize the same economy when there is no collapse risk associated with pollution. Once we introduce a collapse risk whose hazard rate depends on the pollution stock, multiplicatively separable preferences are associated with a much higher value of catastrophic risk reduction, and a more stringent policy response. A relatively high discount rate may thus be compatible with large emissions abatement in the face of a low probability large impact event, reflecting preferences for catastrophic risk reduction.     

泥炭沼泽土壤酶活性对水热条件变化的响应及其与CO_2释放通量的关系——以小兴安岭地区为例

采用实验室培养的方法,研究了小兴安岭地区两类典型的泥炭沼泽:苔草型泥炭沼泽和泥炭藓型泥炭沼泽中几种水解酶活性(β-葡萄糖苷酶、酚氧化酶)对不同温度和水位变化的响应,以及与CO_2释放通量的相瓦关系.结果表明:β-葡萄糖苷酶活性在两类泥炭沼泽中受多种因素制约,在一定湿度范围内受水位控制较明显,当土壤湿度降低到一定程度时,温度对土壤酶活性影响增强.酚氧化酶活性与温度密切相关,但对温度变化的响应存在明显的季节性差异.相对而言,苔草型泥炭沼泽中β-葡萄糖苷酶和酚氧化酶活性显著高于相同培养条件下泥炭藓型泥炭沼泽.总体上,苔草型泥炭沼泽中水解酶活性较泥炭藓型泥炭沼泽中高,但是其CO_2释放通量却低于泥炭鲜型泥炭沼泽,表明与有机碳分解有关的水解酶的活性高低不能作为解释泥炭沼泽CO_2释放通量大小的唯一指标.     

Using environmental heterogeneity to plan for sea‐level rise

Environmental heterogeneity is increasingly being used to select conservation areas that will provide for future biodiversity under a variety of climate scenarios. This approach, termed conserving nature's stage (CNS), assumes environmental features respond to climate change more slowly than biological communities, but will CNS be effective if the stage were to change as rapidly as the climate? We tested the effectiveness of using CNS to select sites in salt marshes for conservation in coastal Georgia (U.S.A.), where environmental features will change rapidly as sea level rises. We calculated species diversity based on distributions of 7 bird species with a variety of niches in Georgia salt marshes. Environmental heterogeneity was assessed across six landscape gradients (e.g., elevation, salinity, and patch area). We used 2 approaches to select sites with high environmental heterogeneity: site complementarity (environmental diversity [ED]) and local environmental heterogeneity (environmental richness [ER]). Sites selected based on ER predicted present‐day species diversity better than randomly selected sites (up to an 8.1% improvement), were resilient to areal loss from SLR (1.0% average areal loss by 2050 compared with 0.9% loss of randomly selected sites), and provided habitat to a threatened species (0.63 average occupancy compared with 0.6 average occupancy of randomly selected sites). Sites selected based on ED predicted species diversity no better or worse than random and were not resilient to SLR (2.9% average areal loss by 2050). Despite the discrepancy between the 2 approaches, CNS is a viable strategy for conservation site selection in salt marshes because the ER approach was successful. It has potential for application in other coastal areas where SLR will affect environmental features, but its performance may depend on the magnitude of geological changes caused by SLR. Our results indicate that conservation planners that had heretofore excluded low‐lying coasts from CNS planning could include coastal ecosystems in regional conservation strategies.