Human error analysis in furnace start-up operation using HEART under intuitionistic fuzzy environment

To address human error in system reliability, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is an essential issue. Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) as a rather straightforward technique for HRA has successfully been used in many areas to predict human error probability (HEP). However, knowledge acquisition of experts during assessed proportion of affect (APOA) calculation is subjected to vagueness and ambiguity. To overcome this challenge, in this paper Intuitionistic Fuzzy (IF) set due to their advantage to represent more fuzzy information than a classical fuzzy set adopted through APOA calculation. To demonstrate this hybrid approach short for, IF-HEART, the furnace start-up operation is handled, since analysis shows that most of explosions and losses occur during furnace start-ups operation. Further, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to approve the proposed integrated approach. In addition to its academic contribution, the results of the paper enable to improve the overall safety level of a furnace by taking into account potential human error.     

不同噪声强度对煤矿工人作业失误率的影响研究

为探究噪声强度对煤矿工人作业失误率的影响程度,采用实验室模拟试验和现场调研收集数据的方式对噪声和作业失误率间的关系展开研究,利用模拟试验所得结果和煤矿现场调研收集结果分别构建噪声-作业失误率、噪声-"三违"数量回归预测模型,定量分析作业失误率、"三违"数量和噪声水平之间的关系,研究结果表明:煤矿"三违"数量、实验室模拟人员失误率与环境噪声均呈正相关,随噪声强度增加,失误率及"三违"数量呈上升趋势;当外界噪声强度高于75 dB后,人员失误次数会出现显著性变化;基于事故预防的角度出发,可将75 dB设定为噪声安全临界值,以降低人员作业失误率,达到事故预防的目的。     

Reality and risk of contact-type head injuries related to bicycle-mounted child seats

Objective

The authors have treated numerous children who have been injured by falling from bicycle-mounted child seats. Despite the greatly increased use of such seats, the understanding of their risk and the importance of helmet use remains alarmingly poor. The objective of this study was to confirm the risk of bicycle-mounted child seats and to evaluate the efficacy of helmets, seat belts, and back seat height in terms of preventing or mitigating contact-type head impacts that occur in falls from bicycle-mounted child seats.

Materials and methods

Biometrical dummy tests were performed to examine contact-type head injuries in falls from stationary bicycles. A bicycle with an anthropometric test dummy placed in a bicycle-mounted child seat was tipped over. Each test was repeated three times and three-dimensional acceleration was measured using accelerometer. Head Injury Criteria (HIC) were calculated and the respective influences of a helmet, a seat belt, and increased height of the back of the seat on such impacts were evaluated.

Results

Only helmets unequivocally lowered maximal acceleration and/or HIC values with statistical significance. The seat belt lowered HIC values as long as it was used with the high-back seat. Only when the dummy wore a helmet sitting in a high-back seat did the HIC show less than the threshold of 570 for three-year-old children. The HIC showed the lowest score of 161.5 when the dummy wore both a helmet and a seat belt sitting in a high-back seat.

Conclusions

Riders in bicycle-mounted child seats definitely have higher risks of contact-type head injuries. In transporting a child on a bicycle-mounted child seat, parents must use both a child-bicycle helmet and a high-back child seat at least; a seat belt is highly recommended as long as it is used with the other safety devices.

Impact on Industry

The bicycle-mounted child seat should have a high enough back and an appropriate seat belt to protect the head of the child from a contact-type injury.     

组织定向的人因失误因果模型及影响关系研究

为了更好地从源头上预防人因失误,首先,基于系统理论发展一个组织定向人因失误的"结构-行为"因果模型,包括组织子模型、情境状态子模型、个体因素子模型以及人因失误子模型。然后,分析模型中各子模型之间以及其因素类别之间的直接和间接影响关系,如模型中各层级之间的因果关系:组织因素→情境状态因素→直接触发人因失误的个体因素→人的认知行为失误。最后,基于事件报告分析、专家意见和文献资料,并依据建立的4种影响类型(I,C,A,N)识别具体情境环境与人因失误或认知行为之间的影响关系。分析结果表明,情境环境因素对人因失误的影响非常复杂,不同的情境环境因素对同一人因失误可能产生不同类型的影响,同一情境环境因素对不同的人因失误可能产生不同类型的影响。     

基于支持向量回归机的煤层瓦斯含量预测研究

为了对煤层瓦斯含量进行准确预测,应用支持向量回归机(SVR)理论建立煤层瓦斯含量预测模型,结合现场实测数据利用支持向量机(SVM)工具箱进行模型的求解及预测,并从均方根误差、希尔不等系数和平均绝对百分误差3个不同误差指标与人工神经网络预测模型进行比较分析。研究结果表明:SVR模型其预测精度及可行性高于神经网络模型,而且运算快,实时性较好,用于煤层瓦斯含量的预测较理想,具有良好的应用前景,可以为煤矿瓦斯防治提供理论依据。     

A performance indicator for ranked set sampling using ranking error probability matrix

Ranked set sampling (RSS) is a sampling procedure that has been shown to provide more efficient procedures than simple random sampling, in particular the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon (MWW) statistic and the empirical distribution function (EDF). We briefly review the work of Bohn (1992) and Stokes and Sager (1988) on the effect of imperfect ranking on the RSS-based MWW test and on the RSS-based EDF, respectively. We propose a model for a ranking error probability matrix which we hope will become a useful tool for evaluating RSS-based statistical procedures     

Rice and wheat straw ashes: Characterization and modeling of pretilachlor sorption kinetics and adsorption isotherm

The rice straw ash (RSA) and wheat straw ash (WSA) were explored as low cost adsorbent for pretilachlor removal from water. The ashes were characterized and sorption behavior of pretilachlor was evaluated. Kinetics study suggested that the modified Elovich model best explained the pretilachlor sorption on both the ashes. The adsorption data were analyzed using 2-, 3- and 4-parameter models and nine error functions were used to compute the best fit isotherm by nonlinear regression analysis. The pretilachlor was more sorbed onto the RSA (22.0–92.2%) than the WSA (11.4–61.4%) and percent adsorption decreased with increase in the herbicide concentration in solution. Isotherm model optimization analysis suggested that the Freundlich and the Temkin isotherms were the best models to predict the pretilachlor adsorption onto the RSA and the WSA. The error analysis suggested that the reciprocal of the observed squared (ROS) and the reciprocal of the predicted squared (RPS) error functions provided the best determination of the adsorption constants for the Freundlich and the Temkin isotherms, respectively. The RSA, which exhibited higher pretilachlor sorption potential, can be utilized as low cost adsorbent for pesticide removal from contaminated water.     

地表水监测误差分析与对策

分析和探讨了地表水环境监测过程中存在的误差。在13家监测站同步采样、同步分析的基础上,筛选出地表水监测实验室间比对结果偏差较大的石油类、挥发酚、氨氮、五日生化需氧量、化学需氧量、高锰酸盐指数和总磷等7个监测指标。从方法误差、仪器误差、试剂误差、操作误差、环境误差、过失误差和质控选择不当造成的误差等各方面探讨误差成因。根据实样测定结果,提出合理选择并统一分析方法、增加平行测定次数、加强质控措施和修改允许相对偏差等切实可行的对策和措施,为地表水监测和水环境管理提供技术依据。     

防灭火泡沫流体在采空区高位倾斜裂隙通道中的扩散研究

防灭火泡沫材料是1种新型的防灭火材料,对高位倾斜裂隙火灾的降温隔热、充填加固具有很好的应用性能。为了了解高位倾斜裂隙通道中泡沫流体的扩散规律,通过理论推导得出不同裂隙倾角和方位角下浆体2端面压力差随时间的变化方程式,以理论公式为基础进行修正,提出了泡沫流体的扩散规律函数式,并通过用其他实验测点进行误差对比分析。研究结果表明:误差均在允许的范围之内,证明拟合出的函数式具有普遍适用性,可以为大采空区隐蔽高温火源点的防治提供理论支持。     

低浓度SO2和NOx 自动监测系统性能评价方法

通过对7种废气自动监测系统的比较研究和现场测试,提出了非分散红外法、紫外差分法、紫外荧光法、化学发光法等多种 SO2和 NO x 自动监测技术在低浓度范围实现准确定量监测的性能评价方法,定义了 CEMS 的系统检出限及其主要影响因素。建议采用系统检出限、线性误差等关键参数作为低浓度 CEMS 的性能评价方法,提出将全系统多点标准气体校准或加标回收率作为验收和质控监督的基本方法。