基于集合卡尔曼滤波的区域臭氧资料同化试验

基于集合卡尔曼滤波方法和嵌套网格空气质量模式系统建立了一个区域空气质量资料同化系统(RAQDAS),并利用该系统开展了京津冀地区2008年北京奥运会期间的地面臭氧观测资料同化试验,分析了同化系统订正臭氧初始场对24 h臭氧预报的影响.试验结果表明采用50个集合样本的集合卡尔曼滤波同化不仅改进了观测站点的臭氧预报,也提高了观测以外区域的臭氧预报技巧,使得臭氧预报的均方根误差平均下降了15％,并且当集合样本数减小到20时也可达到相近的预报改进效果.为了解决滤波发散问题,分别采用了放大集合离散度和扰动模式误差源两种方法.其中放大集合离散度能避免滤波发散,但没有提高臭氧预报技巧,反而导致预报误差的增加;扰动模式误差源不仅解决了滤波发散问题,也使同化导致的臭氧预报均方根误差下降比例从15％进一步提高到20％.     

Rice and wheat straw ashes: Characterization and modeling of pretilachlor sorption kinetics and adsorption isotherm

The rice straw ash (RSA) and wheat straw ash (WSA) were explored as low cost adsorbent for pretilachlor removal from water. The ashes were characterized and sorption behavior of pretilachlor was evaluated. Kinetics study suggested that the modified Elovich model best explained the pretilachlor sorption on both the ashes. The adsorption data were analyzed using 2-, 3- and 4-parameter models and nine error functions were used to compute the best fit isotherm by nonlinear regression analysis. The pretilachlor was more sorbed onto the RSA (22.0–92.2%) than the WSA (11.4–61.4%) and percent adsorption decreased with increase in the herbicide concentration in solution. Isotherm model optimization analysis suggested that the Freundlich and the Temkin isotherms were the best models to predict the pretilachlor adsorption onto the RSA and the WSA. The error analysis suggested that the reciprocal of the observed squared (ROS) and the reciprocal of the predicted squared (RPS) error functions provided the best determination of the adsorption constants for the Freundlich and the Temkin isotherms, respectively. The RSA, which exhibited higher pretilachlor sorption potential, can be utilized as low cost adsorbent for pesticide removal from contaminated water.     

地表水监测误差分析与对策

分析和探讨了地表水环境监测过程中存在的误差。在13家监测站同步采样、同步分析的基础上,筛选出地表水监测实验室间比对结果偏差较大的石油类、挥发酚、氨氮、五日生化需氧量、化学需氧量、高锰酸盐指数和总磷等7个监测指标。从方法误差、仪器误差、试剂误差、操作误差、环境误差、过失误差和质控选择不当造成的误差等各方面探讨误差成因。根据实样测定结果,提出合理选择并统一分析方法、增加平行测定次数、加强质控措施和修改允许相对偏差等切实可行的对策和措施,为地表水监测和水环境管理提供技术依据。     

防灭火泡沫流体在采空区高位倾斜裂隙通道中的扩散研究

防灭火泡沫材料是1种新型的防灭火材料,对高位倾斜裂隙火灾的降温隔热、充填加固具有很好的应用性能。为了了解高位倾斜裂隙通道中泡沫流体的扩散规律,通过理论推导得出不同裂隙倾角和方位角下浆体2端面压力差随时间的变化方程式,以理论公式为基础进行修正,提出了泡沫流体的扩散规律函数式,并通过用其他实验测点进行误差对比分析。研究结果表明:误差均在允许的范围之内,证明拟合出的函数式具有普遍适用性,可以为大采空区隐蔽高温火源点的防治提供理论支持。     

邻氯酚厌氧降解血清瓶试验的误差分析

采用自制的厌氧血清瓶,以2-氯酚(以下简称2-CP)为主要降解基质,研究了各种可能因素对试验试验结果的影响,并进行了误差分析。结果表明氮气吹脱、定容过程和滤膜过滤等试验操作所引起的试验误差很小,而基质挥发、污泥吸附导致的水样中2-氯酚浓度的降低量远小于微生物的降解量。因此利用血清瓶对2-氯酚进行厌氧生物降解的试验研究,可以较好地反应厌氧生物降解的基本规律,结果准确可靠,重现性好。     

低浓度SO2和NOx 自动监测系统性能评价方法

通过对7种废气自动监测系统的比较研究和现场测试,提出了非分散红外法、紫外差分法、紫外荧光法、化学发光法等多种 SO2和 NO x 自动监测技术在低浓度范围实现准确定量监测的性能评价方法,定义了 CEMS 的系统检出限及其主要影响因素。建议采用系统检出限、线性误差等关键参数作为低浓度 CEMS 的性能评价方法,提出将全系统多点标准气体校准或加标回收率作为验收和质控监督的基本方法。     

重金属镉在线监测仪器性能对比

污染源在线监测仪器的准确性、实时性、连续性与污染源在线监测系统数据可靠性紧密相关。选取7种不同品牌的镉在线监测仪器,综合评价其在线测定性能。结果表明,5种镉在线监测仪器的线性误差、相对误差、量程漂移小于10%,重现性误差、零点漂移均小于5%,能较好地应用于镉的在线监测。     

地下水污染物的有限差分模型的修正

为了更好地研究地下水污染问题,在泰勒级数分析的基础上,对一维地下水污染的模型求解过程中有限差分法的截断误差进行了修正,得到了修正后的有限差分解,并对差分格式的稳定性进行了分析。结果表明,没有修正的截断误差是不能忽略的。本文的研究为河流水质污染的防治和预测提供了一种科学依据。     

Multi-metric evaluation of the models WARM,CropSyst, and WOFOST for rice

WARM (Water Accounting Rice Model) simulates paddy rice (Oryza sativa L.), based on temperature-driven development and radiation-driven crop growth. It also simulates: biomass partitioning, floodwater effect on temperature, spikelet sterility, floodwater and chemicals management, and soil hydrology. Biomass estimates from WARM were evaluated and compared with the ones from two generic crop models (CropSyst, WOFOST). The test-area was the Po Valley (Italy). Data collected at six sites from 1989 to 2004 from rice crops grown under flooded and non-limiting conditions were split into a calibration (to estimate some model parameters) and a validation set. For model evaluation, a fuzzy-logic based multiple-metrics indicator (MQI) was used: 0 (best) ≤ MQI ≤ 1 (worst). WARM estimates compared well with the actual data (mean MQI = 0.037 against 0.167 and 0.173 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). On an average, the three models performed similarly for individual validation metrics such as modelling efficiency (EF > 0.90) and correlation coefficient (R > 0.98). WARM performed best in a weighed measure of the Akaike Information Criterion: (worst) 0<wk<1$0<w_k<1$ (best), considering estimation accuracy and number of parameters required to achieve it (mean wk=0.983$w_k=0.983$ against 0.007 and ∼0.000 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). WARM results were sensitive to 30% of the model parameters (ratio being lower with both CropSyst, <10%, and WOFOST, <20%), but appeared the easiest model to use because of the lowest number of crop parameters required (10 against 15 and 34 with CropSyst and WOFOST, respectively). This study provides a concrete example of the possibilities offered using a range of assessment metrics to evaluate model estimates, predictive capabilities, and complexity.     

Spatial distribution of soil heavy metal pollution estimated by different interpolation methods: accuracy and uncertainty analysis

Mapping the spatial distribution of contaminants in soils is the basis of pollution evaluation and risk control. Interpolation methods are extensively applied in the mapping processes to estimate the heavy metal concentrations at unsampled sites. The performances of interpolation methods (inverse distance weighting, local polynomial, ordinary kriging and radial basis functions) were assessed and compared using the root mean square error for cross validation. The results indicated that all interpolation methods provided a high prediction accuracy of the mean concentration of soil heavy metals. However, the classic method based on percentages of polluted samples, gave a pollution area 23.54-41.92% larger than that estimated by interpolation methods. The difference in contaminated area estimation among the four methods reached 6.14%. According to the interpolation results, the spatial uncertainty of polluted areas was mainly located in three types of region: (a) the local maxima concentration region surrounded by low concentration (clean) sites, (b) the local minima concentration region surrounded with highly polluted samples; and (c) the boundaries of the contaminated areas.