水环境数学模型的研究进展

在作者多年研究工作和查阅大量文献资料的基础上,本文综述了环境数学模型国内外的研究现状、发展历史及未来趋势。重点介绍了这方面研究的最新进展。该文还介绍了本领域所涉及的理论和实际应用问题,提出了今后值得进行研究的若干前沿课题,给出了60余篇关于水环境数学模型研究的主要参考文献目录。     

苏北盐城海岸带陆源氮磷污染负荷估算初探

海岸带陆源氮磷污染输入是导致近海赤潮的主要原因,但目前尚缺乏系统的调查研究。文章采用野外实地调查和文献调研相结合的方法,从农田径流、养殖废水排放、居民生活污水和工业废水排放等几个方面,初步估算了盐城海岸带陆源氮磷污染负荷的分配情况。结果表明,盐城海岸带主要陆源污染源中,养殖水域氮磷排放总量为7641t和480t,分别占排放总量的75.1%、63.5%;其次为居民工矿的生活生产污水,其氮磷排放量为2083t和232t,占总排放量的20.5%、30.7%;农田目前看来不是盐城海岸带主要的陆源污染源,排放量仅占4.4%和5.8%。在当前海岸带陆源污染源治理中,除采取有力措施控制养殖水域养分流失外,农村和乡镇生活生产污水的排放也应引起重视。     

Kinetic free mathematical model for the prediction of Kst values for organic dusts with arbitrary particle size distribution

Risk mitigation in production facilities has been an issue of great interest for decades, especially in activities which represent a serious hazard to human health, environment and industrial plants. Dust explosions are a major hazard in many industrial processes: only in the first part of 2019 (January–June) 34 dust explosions, mainly due to organic powders, occurred worldwide. An explosion may take place whenever there is the presence of combustible dusts, which are frequently generated by activities such as grinding, crushing, conveying and storage. Currently, a relatively expensive experimental test, carried out into a 20-L Siwek apparatus, is used to address the order of magnitude (class) of explosive dust: this piece of information is referred to as the deflagration index, K_st. At the current state, only a few pioneering models have been developed in order to predict the value of the K_st as a function of some relevant properties of the dust: e.g. particle size distribution (PSD), humidity, thermal conductivity, etc‥ Most of these models condense the information about the PSD of a given dust into an average value, referred to as D₅₀. In this work, a kinetic free mathematical model aimed at predicting the deflagration index for organic dusts is presented. This model, unlike the older ones, considers the whole particle size distribution for the computation of the deflagration index. In order to be implemented, only a single experimental K_st value (which works as a reference) and a particle size analysis on the dust are required. The model was validated using the whole granulometric distribution of three different organic powders (fosfomycin, sugar and niacin). In addition, the same estimations were done by considering only the D₅₀ data. It was noticed that, for highly polydispersed dusts, results were less accurate with respect to those obtained using the complete PSD, highlighting the importance of considering a complete granulometric distribution for process safety purposes.     

伤亡事故中生命经济价值估算研究

伤亡赔偿标准由于人的年龄、经历、工作等的不同而不同。本文参考国内外相关资料后,在人人平等的基础上区分了不同人的生命价值,设计的估算方法基本包含了各个年龄段的人的生命价值。估算结果仅适用于事故和不可抗力造成的伤亡情况,不适用于故意伤害谋杀等犯罪活动造成的伤亡。生命价值没有上限只有下限,使生命经济价值的估算值有较大提高,这对提高伤亡赔偿标准,对提高人们对生命价值的认识都有一定的价值。     

Speciation and quantification of vapor phases in soy biodiesel and waste cooking oil biodiesel

This study characterizes the compositions of two biodiesel vapors, soy biodiesel and waste cooking oil biodiesel, to provide a comprehensive understanding of biodiesels. Vapor phases were sampled by purging oil vapors through thermal desorption tubes which were then analyzed by the thermal desorption/GC/MS system. The results show that the compounds of biodiesel vapors can be divided into four groups. They include methyl esters (the main biodiesel components), oxygenated chemicals, alkanes and alkenes, and aromatics. The first two chemical groups are only found in biodiesel vapors, not in the diesel vapor emissions. The percentages of mean concentrations for methyl esters, oxygenated chemicals, alkanes and alkenes, and aromatics are 66.1%, 22.8%, 4.8% and 6.4%, respectively for soy biodiesel, and 35.8%, 35.9%, 27.9% and 0.3%, respectively for waste cooking oil biodiesel at a temperature of 25 ± 2 °C. These results show that biodiesels have fewer chemicals and lower concentrations in vapor phase than petroleum diesel, and the total emission rates are between one-sixteenth and one-sixth of that of diesel emission, corresponding to fuel evaporative emissions of loading losses of between 106 μg l⁻¹ and 283 μg l⁻¹. Although diesels generate more vapor phase emissions, biodiesels still generate considerable amount of vapor emissions, particularly the emissions from methyl esters and oxygenated chemicals. These two chemical groups are more reactive than alkanes and aromatics. Therefore, speciation and quantification of biodiesel vapor phases are important.     

Measuring direct and indirect treatment effects using safety performance intervention functions

Recent traffic safety research has advocated the use of the Full Bayes (FB) approach to conduct controlled before-after safety evaluations. The FB approach was shown to offer both methodological and data advantages. However, there is still a lack of complete understanding of the role that the model parameters play in the formulation of treatment effectiveness. This paper offers a novel approach to compute components related to direct and indirect treatment effects under a linear intervention model for the Safety Performance Function (SPF). The isolation of a component corresponding to the direct treatment effects enables the analyst to assess the effectiveness of the countermeasures apart from local (site-related) environmental factors. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the approach. The first case study is based on the results published from a previous safety evaluation in Iowa and the second uses a new data set from British Columbia based on the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia Road Improvement Program. The various direct and indirect components have yielded valuable insight into the effects of the model parameters on treatment impacts. Moreover, the calculation of the treatment effectiveness indices have been simplified by providing straightforward equations in terms of model parameters for the computation of their components without resorting to additional algorithms. More importantly, the results can have a significant impact on the economic evaluation of safety programs and countermeasures by allowing the calculation of collision modification factors (CMFs) that vary with time.     

多元可燃混合溶液的闪点预测

为了预测多元可燃混合液的闪点,建立了一个预测模型,通过二元和三元可燃混合液闪点实测值的试验对比,证实此模型的误差在可接受的范围内。此模型可以在预知可燃混合液组分比例和单组分闪点基础上快速预测混合液的闪点。     

Modeling seasonal course of carbon fluxes and evapotranspiration in response to low temperature and moisture in a boreal Scots pine ecosystem

Environmental conditions act above and below ground, and regulate carbon fluxes and evapotranspiration. The productivity of boreal forest ecosystems is strongly governed by low temperature and moisture conditions, but the understanding of various feedbacks between vegetation and environmental conditions is still unclear. In order to quantify the seasonal responses of vegetation to environmental factors, the seasonality of carbon and heat fluxes and the corresponding responses for temperature and moisture in air and soil were simulated by merging a process-based model (CoupModel) with detailed measurements representing various components of a forest ecosystem in Hyytiälä, southern Finland. The uncertainties in parameters, model assumptions, and measurements were identified by generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). Seasonal and diurnal courses of sensible and latent heat fluxes and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO₂ were successfully simulated for two contrasting years. Moreover, systematic increases in efficiency of photosynthesis, water uptake, and decomposition occurred from spring to summer, demonstrating the strong coupling between processes. Evapotranspiration and NEE flux both showed a strong response to soil temperature conditions via different direct and indirect ecosystem mechanisms. The rate of photosynthesis was strongly correlated with the corresponding water uptake response and the light use efficiency. With the present data and model assumptions, it was not possible to precisely distinguish the various regulating ecosystem mechanisms. Our approach proved robust for modeling the seasonal course of carbon fluxes and evapotranspiration by combining different independent measurements. It will be highly interesting to continue using long-term series data and to make additional tests of optional stomatal conductance models in order to improve our understanding of the boreal forest ecosystem in response to climate variability and environmental conditions.     

基于OUR-HPR测量在线估计活性污泥合成PHA量

活性污泥工艺是一种具有重要应用前景的工业化生产聚羟基烷酸酯(PHA)的方法.当前PHA测量主要采用离线分析方法,时间滞后、分析操作复杂,不适于PHA生产过程控制.本研究基于活性污泥同时储存生长-溶解性微生物产物模型(SSAG-SMP),认为在饱食(外部有机碳基质充足)期间,聚羟基烷酸酯(PHA)的合成速率与氧利用速率(OUR)及氢离子产生速率(HPR)呈线性关系,建立了一种基于OUR-HPR在线测量数据估计活性污泥合成PHA量的方法.本研究对乙酸作基质的不同浓度情况进行模拟,结果表明OUR及HPR的PHA合成的氧气消耗分数(kPHA,OUR)和质子消耗分数(kPHA,HPR)为常数,分别是0.67和0.57.利用建立的线性关系来预测饱食期PHA含量,结果显示预测值与实测值较为吻合,说明提出的基于OURHPR测量在线估计PHA合成量的方法可行.     

首都水源地——洋河流域人为源多环芳烃(PAHs)排放清单估算及其影响分析

洋河流域位于京西北上风向,是北京重要水源地和生态保护屏障,我国北方典型的农牧交错带和生态脆弱敏感区,也是北京-张家口2022年冬奥会的申办地,具有极重要的战略地位.建立洋河流域大气PAHs排放清单,分析其可能来源及影响,通过气团后向轨迹辨识其区域PAHs传输途径,对于北京及张家口地区环境PAHs的污染控制具有重要的指导意义.本研究收集和分析了洋河流域大量工、农业生产和居民生活等相关数据资料,评估了流域各行业、各县市PAHs排放因子,单体排放量及其影响因素,通过气团后向轨迹模型分析了PAHs的传输轨迹.结果表明,洋河流域大气PAHs排放量为4.4×102t.从排放行业看,煤炭燃烧源、秸秆燃烧源是洋河流域大气PAHs的重要排放源,其贡献率分别为76%和16%.从排放地区看,宣化县的排放量最大,约49 t;其次分别为:兴和县、天镇县、怀来县、万全县,排放量分别约为:36、32、24和15 t.从排放谱看,低环(2~3环)与高环分子(4~6环)PAHs的排放量相差不大,分别约占PAHs排放总量的50%左右.洋河流域单位PAHs总排放量与各县市的工业生产总值(r=0.96,P<0.05)、居民收入(r=0.94,P<0.05)、人口密度呈正相关(r=0.92,P<0.05),与单位国土面积呈负相关(r=-0.9,P<0.05),与农业生产总值没有显著相关(r=0.026,P>0.01).流域内PAHs的较高排放与该地以煤炭为主的能源结构和较高的居民消费水平有关.基于气团后向轨迹模拟和洋河流域PAHs排放,可以推断洋河流域已成为PAHs的高污染风险区,通过西北气流可将流域高浓度的PAHs输送至北京,对北京的生态环境和人体健康造成潜在风险.