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361.
建筑物地震损失估计方法对比分析 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
合理而准确地确定建筑物的地震损失是当今防震减灾研究的一个主要课题,也是地震保险费率厘定的前提.目前,我国已经在地震发生概率、场地类型、结构性能、财产分布等方面积累了许多震害统计资料.同时,不断应用地震学、抗震工程学和计算方法方面新的研究成果于地震损失的计算,形成了几种常见的损失估计思路和方法.这其中主要包括传统的地震灾害损失风险评估方法、基于动力可靠度的损失分析方法和基于结构性能的损失确定方法.从合理性和适用性的角度,对这3种方法进行了评述和比较,以此看出各种方法的优点和局限性以及分析思路的发展演变过程,并希望从中能够看出今后研究工作的一些方向. 相似文献
362.
蚁群算法在马斯京根模型参数估计中的应用 总被引:12,自引:0,他引:12
蚁群算法是一种模拟进化算法,该算法具有许多优越的性质.研究了一种可用于求解连续空间优化问题的蚁群算法策略,针对洪水演算的马斯京根模型参数估计问题,应用连续性空间优化问题的蚁群算法模型进行了求解.应用实例表明,蚁群算法在求解连续空间优化问题中是很有效的,可以广泛应用于各种自然灾害模型的优化问题. 相似文献
363.
The uncertainty of reported greenhouse gases emission inventories obtained by the aggregation of partial emissions from all
sources and estimated to date for several countries is very high in comparison with the countries’ emissions limitation and
reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Independent calculation of the estimates could confirm or question the undertainty
estimates values obtained thus far. One of the aims of this paper is to propose statistical signal processing methods to enable
calculation of the inventory variances. The annual reported emissions are used and temporal smoothness of the emissions curve
is assumed. The methods considered are: a spline-function-smoothing procedure; a time-varying parameter model; and the geometric
Brownian motion model. These are validated on historical observations of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The estimates of variances obtained are in a similar range to those obtained from
national inventories using TIER1 or TIER2. Additionally, some regularities in the observed curves were noticed. 相似文献
364.
Keith W. Little Donald T. Lauria 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1989,25(4):755-764
ABSTRACT: A common framework for the analysis of water resources systems is the input-parameter-output representation. The system, described by its parameters, is driven by inputs and responds with outputs. To calibrate (estimate the parameters) models of these systems requires data on both inputs and outputs, both of which are subject to random errors. When one is uncertain as to whether the predominant source of error is associated with inputs or outputs, uncertainty also exists as to the correct specification of a calibration criterion. This paper develops and analyzes two alternative least squares criteria for calibrating a numerical water quality model. The first criterion assumes that errors are associated with inputs while the second assumes output errors. Statistical properties of the resulting estimators are examined under conditions of pure input or output error and mixed error conditions from a theoretical perspective and then using simulated results from a series of Monte Carlo experiments. 相似文献
365.
针对大气预测工作中可能出现的各种偏差,结合影响大气扩散的主要因素,对大气污染预测软件的测试方法进行了归纳,提出了测试大气预测软件的基本方案。 相似文献
366.
367.
368.
泥石流灾害的动力成因初探 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文从动力学成因角度分析泥石流灾害的形成机理,提出了泥石流起动的动力学临界条件通式和用实测资料分析确定泥石流起动临界判别式的方法。 相似文献
369.
Jay J. Messer Charles W. Ariss John R. Baker Sevd K. Drous Keith N. Eshleman Andrew J. Kinney W. Scott Overton Michael J. Sale Robert D. Schonbrod 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(4):821-829
ABSTRACT: A pilot study, which was conducted in the Southern Blue Ridge geographical province of the Southeastern U.S., demonstrated the feasibility of a probability-based regional synoptic design for the National Stream Survey, which is a project aimed at estimating the number and percentage of streams in various regions of the U.S. that are acidic or at risk from acid deposition. Estimated population distributions for key chemical variables were not appreciably affected by week-to-week variability in stream chemistry during the spring index period chosen for the study. Differences were observed in estimated acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), nitrate, and pH frequency distributions between spring and summer. Observations made at the downstream node did not represent the chemistry of the entire reach for some variables (ANC and nitrate) as indicated by differences in chemical concentrations between upstream and downstream sampling locations. Coefficients of variation in chemical species were low enough to provide a reasonably stable classification of streams based on ANC. Although median ANC, sulfate, and nitrate concentrations were quite low in the region, the probability of finding streams with ph < 6.3 is less than 1.3 percent at the α= 0.05 confidence level. 相似文献
370.
Nassir El-Jabi Jean Rousselle 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1987,23(2):179-187
ABSTRACT: Hydrologic and economic information must be integrated in flood plain management. This study describes an integrated approach which includes consideration of the hydrologic, hydrodynamic, physical, and economic components of the total system. On the basis of these components, a theoretical model is proposed which provides a rational procedure for estimating flood damages from projections of economic development within an area. The utility of the model is demonstrated by applying it to a flood-prone region in Southern Quebec, Canada. 相似文献