A FLOOD DAMAGE MODEL FOR FLOOD PLAIN STUDIES1

ABSTRACT: Hydrologic and economic information must be integrated in flood plain management. This study describes an integrated approach which includes consideration of the hydrologic, hydrodynamic, physical, and economic components of the total system. On the basis of these components, a theoretical model is proposed which provides a rational procedure for estimating flood damages from projections of economic development within an area. The utility of the model is demonstrated by applying it to a flood-prone region in Southern Quebec, Canada.     

STREAM CHEMISTRY IN THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE: FEASIBILITY OF A REGIONAL SYNOPTIC SAMPLING APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: A pilot study, which was conducted in the Southern Blue Ridge geographical province of the Southeastern U.S., demonstrated the feasibility of a probability-based regional synoptic design for the National Stream Survey, which is a project aimed at estimating the number and percentage of streams in various regions of the U.S. that are acidic or at risk from acid deposition. Estimated population distributions for key chemical variables were not appreciably affected by week-to-week variability in stream chemistry during the spring index period chosen for the study. Differences were observed in estimated acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), nitrate, and pH frequency distributions between spring and summer. Observations made at the downstream node did not represent the chemistry of the entire reach for some variables (ANC and nitrate) as indicated by differences in chemical concentrations between upstream and downstream sampling locations. Coefficients of variation in chemical species were low enough to provide a reasonably stable classification of streams based on ANC. Although median ANC, sulfate, and nitrate concentrations were quite low in the region, the probability of finding streams with ph < 6.3 is less than 1.3 percent at the α= 0.05 confidence level.     

河网水质数学模型的参数估算

本文以无锡县河网水质数学模型的参数估算为例，根据河流的性质、水流特征、污染源的类型，选择５条河流进行现场观测，综合考虑不同河流的分析结果，研究了适用于平原河网水质数学模型的参数估算的方法。     

Bimodality of the combined removal and signs-of-activities estimator for sampling closed animal populations

The possibility of a bimodal log-likelihood function arises with certain data when the combined removal and signs-of-activities estimator is used. Bimodal log-likelihoods may, in turn, yield disjoint confidence intervals for certain confidence levels. The hypothesis that bimodality is caused by the violation of the equal catchability assumption of the removal model, leading to the combination of contradictory data/models in the combined estimator is set forth. Simulations exploring the effect of the violation of removal model assumptions on estimation and inference showed that the assumption of unequal capture probability influenced the frequency of bimodal likelihoods; similarly, extreme parameter values for probability of capture influenced the number of excessively large confidence intervals produced. A sex-specific combined estimator is developed as a remedial model tailored to the problem. The simulations suggest that both the signs-of-activities estimator and the sex-specific estimator perform equally well over the range of simulations presented, though the signs-of-activities estimator is easier to implement.     

An EM algorithm for capture-recapture estimation

Analysis of capture—recapture data often involves maximizing a complex likelihood function with many unknown parameters. Statistical inference based on selection of a proper model depends on successful attainment of this maximum. An EM algorithm is developed for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of capture and survival probabilities conditional on first capture from standard capture—recapture data. The algorithm does not require the use of numerical derivatives which may improve precision and stability relative to other estimation schemes. The asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimated parameters can be obtained using the supplemented EM algorithm. The EM algorithm is compared to a more traditional Newton-Raphson algorithm with both a simulated and a real dataset. The two algorithms result in the same parameter estimates, but Newton-Raphson variance estimates depend on a numerically estimated Hessian matrix that is sensitive to step size choice.     

Small sample estimation for Taylor's power law

An analysis of counts of sample size N=2 arising from a survey of the grass Bromus commutatus identified several factors which might seriously affect the estimation of parameters of Taylor's power law for such small sample sizes. The small sample estimation of Taylor's power law was studied by simulation. For each of five small sample sizes, N=2, 3, 5, 15 and 30, samples were simulated from populations for which the underlying known relationship between variance and mean was given by ² = c^d. One thousand samples generated from the negative binomial distribution were simulated for each of the six combinations of c=1,2 and 11, and d=1, 2, at each of four mean densities, =0.5, 1, 10 and 100, giving 4000 samples for each combination. Estimates of Taylor's power law parameters were obtained for each combination by regressing log₁₀ s ² on log₁₀ m, where s ² and m are the sample variance and mean, respectively. Bias in the parameter estimates, b and log₁₀ a, reduced as N increased and increased with c for both values of d and these relationships were described well by quadratic response surfaces. The factors which affect small-sample estimation are: (i) exclusion of samples for which m = s ² = 0; (ii) exclusion of samples for which s ² = 0, but m > 0; (iii) correlation between log₁₀ s ² and log₁₀ m; (iv) restriction on the maximum variance expressible in a sample; (v) restriction on the minimum variance expressible in a sample; (vi) underestimation of log₁₀ s ² for skew distributions; and (vii) the limited set of possible values of m and s ². These factors and their effect on the parameter estimates are discussed in relation to the simulated samples. The effects of maximum variance restriction and underestimation of log₁₀ s ² were found to be the most severe. We conclude that Taylor's power law should be used with caution if the majority of samples from which s ² and m are calculated have size, N, less than 15. An example is given of the estimated effect of bias when Taylor's power law is used to derive an efficient sampling scheme.     

Modelling asymmetrically distributed circular data using the wrapped skew-normal distribution

We consider problems of inference for the wrapped skew-normal distribution on the circle. A centered parametrization of the distribution is introduced, and simulation used to compare the performance of method of moments and maximum likelihood estimation for its parameters. Maximum likelihood estimation is shown, in general, to be superior. The operating characteristics of two moment based tests, for wrapped normal and wrapped half-normal parent populations, respectively, are also explored. The former test is easy to apply, maintains the nominal significance level well and is generally highly powerful. The latter test does not hold the nominal significance level so well, although it is very powerful against negatively skew alternatives. Likelihood based tests for the two distributions are also discussed. A real data set from the ornithological literature is used to illustrate the application of the developed methodology and its extension to finite mixture modelling. Received: September 2003/ Revised: April 2005     

柴河铅锌矿尾矿库复垦治理中不同覆土与植被措施的效益估算

以铁岭柴河铅锌矿尾矿库复垦治理为例,根据尾矿库“生态封闭”原理,选取表层覆土50cm种植紫穗槐（措施1）、设置土工布隔离后覆土30cm种植紫穗槐（措施2）和厚覆土150cm种植刺槐与紫穗槐（措施3）等3种不同覆土及植被措施,运用影子工程法、替代成本法、恢复费用法和生态价值法等方法,构建尾矿库覆土与植被措施的效益估算模型,估算各措施的深层淋滤污染扩散防治效益、地表径流侵蚀扩散防治效益和风蚀扩散防治效益.效益估算结果表明：措施1、措施2和措施3的深层淋滤污染扩散防治效益分别为2975.24,3449.56,3604.75万元/a;3种措施可在不同程度上减少表层覆土流失、下游河道淤积及水体重金属污染,产生的地表径流侵蚀扩散防治效益分别为1222.66,2585.71,2586.75万元/a;3种覆土及植被措施均可有效抑制重金属风蚀污染扩散,产生的风蚀扩散防治效益分别为1235.45,1235.45,1237.86万元/a. 3种覆土及植被措施在重金属污染防治方面的综合效益分别为5433.35,7270.72,7429.36万元/a. 深层淋滤污染扩散防治效益在综合效益中所占比重最大,尾矿库覆土及植被措施的选择应以控制雨水入渗淋滤为主,结合降雨、蒸发等气象因素和覆盖土壤特性等,考虑治理成本,合理确定覆土厚度以及设置隔离层的必要性.     

中央环保督察“回头看”的市场反应——基于重污染行业上市公司的影响分析

运用事件研究法和非参数检验,探究了中央环保督察“回头看”的宣布实施对于沪深两市A股重污染行业上市公司收益情况的影响及其差异情况,结果显示：事件窗内中央环保督察“回头看”使得重污染行业上市公司的平均累计异常收益率降低至-2.005%,且这一负面冲击在时间上有延长趋势;不同公司性质、子行业的重污染行业上市公司所受影响存在显著差异.就企业性质差异而言,非国有公司累计收益率所受的负面冲击平均比国有公司高1.696%.在不同行业中,建材、制药、石化行业所受负面冲击最大,纺织、造纸、制革行业所受影响则较小.此外,市场对于火电、化工行业企业的反应并非多为负向,注重环境管理使得部分企业在中央环保督察“回头看”中得到了市场的正向回馈.建议持续推进中央环保督察“回头看”制度,以切实促进公司开展节能减排,同时,重污染行业公司特别是非国有公司以及上述行业公司应加强自身环境管理,积极进行环境信息披露,从而尽可能避免在类似的环境规制中受到负面冲击.