PMF模型解析土壤重金属来源的不确定性

正定因子矩阵分解（PMF）是目前污染源解析领域应用最为广泛的受体模型之一,其不确定性研究一直是源解析研究的前沿和热点.利用拔靴法（BS）、替换法（DISP）和拔靴-替换法（BS-DISP）3种不确定性分析方法探讨了PMF模型应用于土壤重金属源解析的不确定性,并以德兴铜矿周边土壤重金属为对象开展案例研究.结果表明,6因子情景是PMF模型最佳运行结果;在6因子情景的源成分谱中,除Cr和Ti外,DISP和BS不确定性区间均处于标识元素基本值的0.6~1.5倍之间,BS-DISP不确定性区间处于基本值的0.6~1.6倍之间;模型结果的不确定性更多源于因子旋转误差.通过这3种不确定性分析方法可以获得PMF模型运算中的随机误差和因子旋转误差.其中,BS-DISP法和BS法得到的结果能够辅助判断因子数是否过拟合,并有助于理解源谱的不确定性,而DISP法能够用于理解旋转的不确定性,可作为评价旋转过程可行性的方法.     

Modeling of real scale waste activated sludge anaerobic digestion process by Anaerobic Digestion Model 1 (ADM1)

In this study, real-scale wastewater treatment plant (Hurma WWTP) sludge anaerobic digestion process was modeled by Anaerobic Digestion Model (ADM1) with the purpose of generating the data to understand the process better by contributing to the prediction of the process operational conditions and process performance, which will be a base for future anaerobic sludge stabilization process investments.

Real-scale anaerobic sludge digestion process data was evaluated in terms of known process and state variables and also process yields. Average VS removal yield, methane production yield, and methane production rate values of the anaerobic sludge digestion unit were calculated as 46.4%, 0.49 m³CH₄/kg VS_removed, and 0.33 m³ CH₄/m³day, respectively. In this study, ADM1 was intended to predict the behavior of real-scale anaerobic digester processing sewage sludge under dynamic conditions. To estimate the variables of real-scale sludge anaerobic digestion process with high accuracy and to provide high model prediction performance, values of the four parameters (disintegration rate constant, carbohydrate hydrolysis rate constant, protein hydrolysis rate constant, and lipid hydrolysis rate constant) that have strong effects on structured ADM1 were estimated by using the parameter estimation module in Aquasim program and their values were found as 0.101, 10, 10, and 9.99, respectively. When the numbers of kinetic parameters with the processes included in ADM1 along with the dynamic and non-linear structure of the real scale anaerobic digestion were taken into consideration, model simulations were in good agreement with measured results of the biogas flow rate, methane flow rate, pH, total alkalinity, and volatile fatty acids.     

尾矿坝溃决泥浆运动机制及其预测模型研究

以尾矿溃坝砂流下游演进动力学过程为研究重点,综合运用水文学及水动力学等运动理论和数值计算方法,建立描述尾矿坝溃决泥浆运动的数学模型,采用VOF模型对溃坝后的砂流运动过程进行数值模拟。以某溃决尾矿坝为例,对溃坝后下泄砂流演进过程进行模拟,模拟得到的最终影响范围及泥深均与该溃决尾矿坝溃后的现场观测结果相吻合,证明了模拟的有效性和正确性。     

基于岭估计的青海省东部农业区ET_0遥感反演研究

论文利用青海东部农业区内的12个气象站2003—2005年气象资料,应用Penman-Monteith公式计算得到各站逐旬的ET_0值,并进一步研究其与高程(DEM)、地表温度(LST)及归一化植被指数(NDVI)3个因子之间的关系,提取遥感数据并耦合到时间分辨率为旬,空间分辨率为1 km,将其与计算所得ET_0建立多元反演模型。由于3个自变量因子之间存在着很强的相关关系,LST与NDVI间判定系数R2平均在0.7左右,不能直接用最小二乘回归方法建立模型。为有效避免自变量间相关性对模型的影响,研究中采用岭估计方法建模。结果表明,通过岭估计建立2003年10~33旬区域二元模型反演最低精度达76.19%,区域三元模型反演最低精度也有83.54%。与传统方法所建模型相比,检查点均方根误差减小约1.1,反演最低精度提高11%左右,能满足实际应用需求。     

坐姿时上肢作业姿势舒适性评价

针对人体呈现坐姿状态时前侧方作业区域的不同,利用人体测量数据在空间划分网格,实现了上肢作业姿势的参数化定义。并设计实验,由12位健康的男被试参加,利用自由模量幅度估计法对定义过的384种作业姿势的舒适性进行了评价和分级。对依据不同被试个数计算出的结果进行比较分析,并与快速上肢评价方法的评价结果进行比对,揭示了结果的可靠性。评价结果可以为操纵装置的工效设计以及作业空间布局提供重要参考,同时为国内的姿势舒适性评价工作提供了可靠的依据。     

沙兰镇突发性洪水灾害损失评估及其反思

我国是洪水灾害频发的国家.本文通过实地调查,对黑龙江省宁安市沙兰镇2005年6月10日突发的洪水灾害损失进行了评估,总结了教训,对防灾、减灾工作进行了反思.     

Processing National CO2 Inventory Emissions Data and their Total Uncertainty Estimates

The uncertainty of reported greenhouse gases emission inventories obtained by the aggregation of partial emissions from all sources and estimated to date for several countries is very high in comparison with the countries’ emissions limitation and reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Independent calculation of the estimates could confirm or question the undertainty estimates values obtained thus far. One of the aims of this paper is to propose statistical signal processing methods to enable calculation of the inventory variances. The annual reported emissions are used and temporal smoothness of the emissions curve is assumed. The methods considered are: a spline-function-smoothing procedure; a time-varying parameter model; and the geometric Brownian motion model. These are validated on historical observations of the CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The estimates of variances obtained are in a similar range to those obtained from national inventories using TIER1 or TIER2. Additionally, some regularities in the observed curves were noticed.     

昆明市工业碳排放估算初探

采用OECD专家组推荐的计算方法,在对比IPCC和国家气候变化协调小组（NCCG）第三工作组给出的碳排放系数后,在昆明市对外公布的2008年工业能耗统计数据基础上,对昆明市的工业碳排放进行了估算。还对昆明市的工业行业碳排放强度、昆明市工业碳排放的行业分布情况进行了初步分析。     

非点源污染负荷估算方法探讨

通过搜集整理国内外非点源污染负荷方法,概括归纳出综合分析、城市非点源和农村非点源三类非点源污染负荷估算方法,并研究比较各类方法的原理、应用条件、具体参数等。在此基础上,提出非点源污染负荷估算方法选择和最佳利用对策建议。     

海洋环境工频磁场量级的快速估计方法

海洋环境中工频电磁场是舰船水下电磁场测量的重要干扰源之一.对工频电磁场进行测量时由于水下布放难度较大,对测试海域进行多点测量并不现实.通过对工频电磁场海水中透射基本理论的分析,提出了一种工频磁场的快速估计方法,实测验证了方法的有效性.