巢湖流域大气污染的经济损失分析

在对2002年巢湖流域大气污染资料进行调查和统计的基础上,应用人力资本法、市场价值法、机会成本法、资产价值法等环境经济价值评估方法,从人体健康、农作物、森林、家庭清洗费用和建筑材料腐蚀5个方面估算了巢湖流域大气污染造成的经济损失。结果表明,建筑材料腐蚀损失和人体健康损失分别为185亿元和151亿元,这两项费用占整个损失的比重达7814%;家庭清洗费用增加值、农作物经济损失和森林经济损失分别为073亿元、012亿元和009亿元。当年全流域环保投资总额为46亿元,而仅大气污染造成的环境经济损失就达到43亿元,约占当年GDP的084％。环保投资力度与环境污染损失不相适应。     

贵州森林碳汇现状及增汇潜力分析

区域层面的森林碳收支估算研究有利于为整体层面持续固碳增汇的森林经营提供科学参考,评估森林碳汇对减少区域内碳排放的贡献。采用温室气体清单估算法,对2000、2005和2010年贵州省森林碳汇进行估算,结果表明:贵州省森林碳汇从15.380×106增长到22.447×106、24.314×106 t CO2,呈稳定增长趋势,占全省碳排放量的6.73%～10.35%。贵州省尚有161.70×104 hm2宜林地,如果能用于发展碳汇林业,每年可吸收CO2达2.379×106 t,30年内将吸收CO2达71.370×106 t。贵州省正处于碳排放增长阶段,相对于森林碳汇而言,全区域碳减排工作任重道远,森林碳汇能力有很大的提升空间。     

统计在企业地震灾害损失评估中的应用

地震灾害导致企业资产遭受损失,为了科学合理的制定灾区企业恢复生产和重建工作的计划,需要对企业灾害损失进行快速的评估.本文从统计的角度提出了一种估算灾区企业固定资产损失情况的方法,并以汶川地震为例对此方法进行效验.     

海域水质生态模型参数估计方法研究初探——以叶绿素参数估计为例

建立了海域水质生态模型参数估计新方法,将数据驱动模型理论同海域生态模型结合在一起,通过海域水质生态模型设计工况的计算构建海域内部观测点的解集,应用基于人工神经网络的数据驱动模型归纳建立状态变量(污染物浓度)同控制变量(模型参数)之间的关系,最后将实测资料带入上述关系反演模型参数最优解。以渤海海域水质生态模型叶绿素参数估计为例,采用"孪生"试验验证参数估计新方法的可行性,模型参数的校验结果表明该方法是有效的。     

居民生活消费碳排放估算方法分析比较

对当前国内外居民生活消费碳排放估算方法进行对比,从居民生活消费能源的界定和估算方式的选择2方面入手,分析各种估算方法的优缺点,为我国合理准确的估算居民生活消费碳排放提供参考借鉴。     

城市重点污染区土壤重金属污染评价标准探讨——以衡阳市某区为例

在对衡阳市某区土壤重金属污染现状进行调查的基础上,采集该区不同土地类型36个土壤样品,测定了样品中As、Zn、Cr、Cd、Ni和Pb的总量及有效态含量,分析比较了不同土地类型土壤中重金属元素有效态含量和总量之间的比例,并对土壤重金属总量污染起始值和有效态污染起始值的评价结果进行了对比,结果表明:研究区工业用地、城区和农地的土壤受到一定程度的Cd、Zn、Pb和As污染,且以Cd的污染较为严重;土壤中重金属有效态含量更能够真实地反映污染元素的生态环境效应,因此在进行土壤环境质量评价时,可采用区域土壤重金属有效态污染起始值作为评价标准。     

ANALYSIS OF PUMPING TESTS: SIGNIFICANCE OF WELL DIAMETER,PARTIAL PENETRATION,AND NOISE1

ABSTRACT: The nonlinear least squares (NLS) method was applied to pumping and recovery aquifer test data in confined and unconfined aquifers with finite diameter and partially penetrating pumping wells, and with partially penetrating piezometers or observation wells. It was demonstrated that noiseless and moderately noisy drawdown data from observation points located less than two saturated thicknesses of the aquifer from the pumping well produced an exact or acceptable set of parameters when the diameter of the pumping well was included in the analysis. The accuracy of the estimated parameters, particularly that of specific storage, decreased with increases in the noise level in the observed drawdown data. With consideration of the well radii, the noiseless drawdown data from the pumping well in an unconfined aquifer produced good estimates of horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities and specific yield, but the estimated specific storage was unacceptable. When noisy data from the pumping well were used, an acceptable set of parameters was not obtained. Further experiments with noisy drawdown data in an unconfined aquifer revealed that when the well diameter was included in the analysis, hydraulic conductivity, specific yield and vertical hydraulic conductivity may be estimated rather effectively from piezometers located over a range of distances from the pumping well. Estimation of specific storage became less reliable for piezometers located at distances greater than the initial saturated thickness of the aquifer. Application of the NLS to field pumping and recovery data from a confined aquifer showed that the estimated parameters from the two tests were in good agreement only when the well diameter was included in the analysis. Without consideration of well radii, the estimated values of hydraulic conductivity from the pumping and recovery tests were off by a factor of four.     

淮北市南湖湿地生态系统服务及价值评估

淮北市南湖湿地是由采煤塌陷形成的,经过多年的生态恢复,已经建设成为国家湿地公园,在物质生产、净化水质、动物栖息地等方面具有巨大的综合效益。通过实地考察,针对湿地的特点,依据生态经济学的原理,运用直接市场法、替代市场法、条件价值法等多种价值评估方法,对南湖湿地生态服务的直接使用价值、间接使用价值和非使用价值进行货币化评估。研究发现,南湖湿地主要生态服务价值量总和计3544.4×10⁴元/a（2007年不变价,下同）。其中,物质生产功能的价值最大,在南湖湿地生态系统服务价值中的比例为27%,其次是非使用价值,占总生态服务价值的25.9%。     

Data-directed modelling of Daphnia dynamics in a long-term micro-ecosystem experiment

The micro-ecosystem under consideration consists of three compartments forming a closed chain in which water circulates. Three trophic levels are represented in different compartments: autotrophs (algae, mainly Chlorella vulgaris), herbivores (Daphnia magna) and microbial decomposers. From a 20 years experiment with this system, data has been selected for this study. The dynamics of algae and Daphnia magna in only one of the compartments were modeled by different systems of differential and difference equations. We describe the successive steps in the process of model development, and the fitting of parameters using a Nelder-Mead simplex calibration method. Identification problems were overcome by taking values for physiological parameters in agreement with the literature. It turned out that a logistic type of model gives the best result for the structured Daphnia population because of the set up of the experiment: algae grow and reproduce in the upstream compartment. For this reason well-known plant–herbivore models did not comply with the data. The results of the parameter estimation procedure are discussed. The estimated grazing rate by Daphnia was smaller than expected. Possibly the Daphnia fed also on detritus and decomposing algae which were not measured.     

影响红沿河核电厂区热带气旋特征及最大强度估算

红沿河核电厂区位于我国北方海域的辽东湾东海岸,经常受到北上热带气旋的侵袭和影响。观测和统计表明,在辽宁登陆的热带气旋,强度能够达到台风,不容忽略。影响红沿河的热带气旋基本出现在7、8月份,以进入渤海后向西北移动和穿越山东半岛向北在辽东半岛登陆的两类热带气旋对红沿河区域影响最大,建国56年来最强的热带气旋在红沿河附近区域造成的最大风速达到25～33m/s,极大风速达40m/s以上。使用概率论方法和梯度风公式估算红沿河核电厂区可能最大热带气旋的强度参数,得到:百年一遇的可能最低气压估值为961 hPa,最大风速为35.4m/s,极大风速为46.0m/s;千年一遇的可能最低气压估值为939 hPa,最大风速为42.2m/s,极大风速为54.9m/s。