淮北市南湖湿地生态系统服务及价值评估

淮北市南湖湿地是由采煤塌陷形成的,经过多年的生态恢复,已经建设成为国家湿地公园,在物质生产、净化水质、动物栖息地等方面具有巨大的综合效益。通过实地考察,针对湿地的特点,依据生态经济学的原理,运用直接市场法、替代市场法、条件价值法等多种价值评估方法,对南湖湿地生态服务的直接使用价值、间接使用价值和非使用价值进行货币化评估。研究发现,南湖湿地主要生态服务价值量总和计3544.4×10⁴元/a（2007年不变价,下同）。其中,物质生产功能的价值最大,在南湖湿地生态系统服务价值中的比例为27%,其次是非使用价值,占总生态服务价值的25.9%。     

Data-directed modelling of Daphnia dynamics in a long-term micro-ecosystem experiment

The micro-ecosystem under consideration consists of three compartments forming a closed chain in which water circulates. Three trophic levels are represented in different compartments: autotrophs (algae, mainly Chlorella vulgaris), herbivores (Daphnia magna) and microbial decomposers. From a 20 years experiment with this system, data has been selected for this study. The dynamics of algae and Daphnia magna in only one of the compartments were modeled by different systems of differential and difference equations. We describe the successive steps in the process of model development, and the fitting of parameters using a Nelder-Mead simplex calibration method. Identification problems were overcome by taking values for physiological parameters in agreement with the literature. It turned out that a logistic type of model gives the best result for the structured Daphnia population because of the set up of the experiment: algae grow and reproduce in the upstream compartment. For this reason well-known plant–herbivore models did not comply with the data. The results of the parameter estimation procedure are discussed. The estimated grazing rate by Daphnia was smaller than expected. Possibly the Daphnia fed also on detritus and decomposing algae which were not measured.     

影响红沿河核电厂区热带气旋特征及最大强度估算

红沿河核电厂区位于我国北方海域的辽东湾东海岸,经常受到北上热带气旋的侵袭和影响。观测和统计表明,在辽宁登陆的热带气旋,强度能够达到台风,不容忽略。影响红沿河的热带气旋基本出现在7、8月份,以进入渤海后向西北移动和穿越山东半岛向北在辽东半岛登陆的两类热带气旋对红沿河区域影响最大,建国56年来最强的热带气旋在红沿河附近区域造成的最大风速达到25～33m/s,极大风速达40m/s以上。使用概率论方法和梯度风公式估算红沿河核电厂区可能最大热带气旋的强度参数,得到:百年一遇的可能最低气压估值为961 hPa,最大风速为35.4m/s,极大风速为46.0m/s;千年一遇的可能最低气压估值为939 hPa,最大风速为42.2m/s,极大风速为54.9m/s。     

太湖流域典型地区农村生活污水中污染物在表层土壤中的削减特征与测算

原位采集太湖流域典型平原河网地区农户化粪池排污口附近的表层土壤及化粪池出水,人工模拟研究区域典型降雨（夏季30 mm·次-1,冬季5mm·次-1）、气温（夏季27℃,冬季5℃）条件以及排污负荷[TN：（2.35±0.06） g·m^-2 ·d^-1,NH4＋-N：（2.08±0.04）g·m^-2· d^-1,TP：（0.21±0.01）g·m^-2·d^-1,COD：（11.14±0.59）g·m^-2·d^-1],并进行室内模拟土柱试验,测算不同季节（夏季和冬季）、不同天气过程（雨前、雨天和雨后）排污口表层土壤对农村生活污水各类污染物的削减率并探讨其削减规律.结果表明：在季节差异上,雨前、雨天和雨后TN削减率均表现为夏季＜冬季（P＜0.05或P＜0.001）,NH4＋-N削减率则均表现为夏季＞冬季（P＜0.01）;雨前和雨后TP削减率表现为夏季＞冬季（P＜0.001）,COD削减率无显著季节性差异;雨天TP和COD削减率则均表现为夏季＜冬季（P＜0.01或P＜0.001）.在天气过程差异上,夏季土壤TN削减率表现为雨后＞雨前＞雨天（P＜0.01）,夏季TP和COD削减率表现为雨前≈雨后＞雨天（P＞0.05,P＜0.01）,而夏季NH4＋-N,冬季TN、NH4＋-N、TP和COD削减率在不同天气过程之间无显著差异（P＞0.05）.据此划分,夏季雨前、雨天和雨后及冬季TN削减率分别为38.5％、-25.0％、46.0％和50.4％,夏季和冬季NH4＋-N削减率分别为91.5％和85.5％,夏季雨天、夏季其余时间及冬季TP削减率分别为63.3％、93.1％和82.7％,夏季雨天及其余时间COD削减率分别为8.2％和66.2％.     

居民用水阶梯式水价及其节水效果测算模型研究

居民用水阶梯式水价是近年来水价改革和研究的热点,现有文献主要集中在对阶梯式水价的优缺点、可行性和对策建议进行探讨,而对阶梯式水价模型参数估计方法和模拟测算阶梯式水价节水效果的研究不多。结合居民用水阶梯式水价的定价原则和目标要求,研究了居民用水三阶式阶梯水价模型及其参数估计方法,基于扩展线性支出系统理论建立了模拟测算阶梯式水价节水效果的模型;以广州市番禺区为例,假设该区2009 年实施居民用水三阶式阶梯水价,利用建立的模型模拟测算了该区实施三阶式阶梯水价所能产生的节水效果。研究结果表明:三阶式阶梯水价模式下,2009 年番禺区居民年人均可节约用水15.46 m³,年人均用水量理论上可下降16.87%。     

A framework to estimate the risk-based shutdown interval for a processing plant

Petrochemical plants and refineries consist of hundreds of pieces of complex equipment and machinery that run under rigorous operating conditions and are subjected to deterioration over time due to aging, wear, corrosion, erosion, fatigue and other reasons. These devices operate under extreme operating pressures and temperatures, and any failure may result in huge financial consequences for the operating company. To minimize the risk and to maintain operational reliability and availability, companies adopt various maintenance strategies. Shutdown or turnaround maintenance is one such strategy. In general, shutdown for inspection and maintenance is based on the original equipment manufacturer's (OEM) suggested recommended periods. However, this may not be the most optimum strategy given that operating conditions may vary significantly from company to company.The framework proposed in this work estimates the risk-based shutdown interval for inspection and maintenance. It provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making by considering the probability of the equipment or system for failure and the likely consequences that may follow. The novel risk-based approach is compared with the conventional fixed interval approach. This former approach, characterized as it is by optimized inspection, maintenance and risk management, leads to extended intervals between shutdowns. The result is the increase in production and the consequent income of millions of dollars.The proposed framework is a cost effective way to minimize the overall financial risk for asset inspection and maintenance while fulfilling safety and availability requirements.     

基于贝叶斯网络的煤矿事故人因推理

煤矿事故的不可重现性决定了事故原因的调查具有很强的不确定性,如何通过事故发生后的相关信息提高事故深层次原因调查的准确性是非常重要的。将HFACS与贝叶斯网络相结合,以煤矿事故HFACS分析结果为样本,通过卡方检验和让步比分析建立人因的贝叶斯网络因果图,进一步利用最大似然估计算法确定了煤矿事故人因的贝叶斯网络参数。最后,以双柳煤业顶板事故的调查信息为证据推理导致煤矿事故发生的深层次原因,提高事故原因调查的准确性,从而验证模型的有效性。     

氧气瓶爆炸事故性质认定及原因分析

在事故现场勘查的基础上,通过材料成分、力学性能、金相组织与断口、碎片附着物以及充装气体成分等检测和试验,结合爆炸能量的理论估算,对一起氧气瓶爆炸事故的性质和原因进行了系统分析。结果表明：瓶体存在的脱碳、微裂纹及局部腐蚀凹坑这些类裂纹缺陷在爆炸产生的巨大载荷下诱发了气瓶的开裂及扩展,其宏观断口表现为韧脆交替的快速断裂特征。依据碎片抛射距离估算的气瓶实际爆炸能量远大于其发生物理爆炸所产生的能量,气瓶爆炸属于化学爆炸。气瓶内存在的碳烃类油脂有机物以及瓶阀关闭时产生的摩擦热或静电火花是氧气瓶发生化学爆炸的直接原因。     

多风机多级机站通风网络的状态估计

利用计算机实现矿井通风系统优化管理和自动控制,必须具有相应的硬件基础,即需要一定数量的遥控检测装置,实时检测出系统运行中的部分状态变量的值,并传送到控制中心,作为计算机决策的依据。本文提出了利用加权最小二乘状态估计器对矿井通风系统进行静态状态估计以及对检测量中出现的错误数据进行识别、纠正的方法。利用该算法对一个中等规模的实际矿井通风系统进行了计算机的仿真计算,获得了满意的结果。     

DETERMINATION OF HYDRAULIC C.ONDUCTWITY TENSOR USING A NONLINEAR LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATOR1

ABSTRACT: Reliable and consistent estimation of the components of the hydraulic conductivity tensor provides information needed to make proper decisions regarding clean up and restoration of contaminated aquifers. In this study, the nonlinear least-squares estimation technique was applied to drawdown versus time data from three or more observation wells to determine a theoretical ellipse of equal drawdown. The angle of rotation of this ellipse with respect to the working coordinate axes was determined by a procedure based on contouring the drawdowns at a given time. This ellipse, in turn, was used to estimate the directions and magnitudes of the horizontal components of the hydraulic conductivity tensor. The technique is applicable to confined, as well as leaky, aquifers. Sources of error in this technique include nonhomogeneity of the aquifer and partial penetration of the pumping and observation wells into the aquifer. The procedure presented may be used as an additional tool to verify computations of hydraulic conductivity anisotropy based on other techniques.