地震火灾损失评估研究

地震火灾是一种严重的震次生灾害,历史地震资料表明,地震火灾造成的损失有时甚至超过地震的直接破坏所造成的损失,本文根据目前我国地震现场灾害的评估方法,结合我国地震结构损失评估的经验,建立了地震火灾损失的评估方法。     

Estimating the population size with a behavioral response in capture-recapture experiment

A new estimating procedure is suggested to estimate the population size in a capture-recapture experiment. The capture intensities for first-capture and recapture are allowed to be different and time dependent but they are assumed to be proportional. It is shown that the information on the proportionality constant is crucial to the estimation of the population size. Sensitivity analysis with a misspecification of the proportionality constant is conducted. The method has also been extended to the case with an unknown proportionality. A real example is given.     

污染模型中参数订正的集合Kalman滤波扩展状态变量法

污染模型中不确定参数的精确订正对于提高模型的精度有着重要的意义。在集合Kalman滤波（EnKF）同化方法的基础上,提出了对模型中不确定参数进行订正的EnKF扩展状态变量法,将不确定参数看成和模型状态变量一样的量,根据观测资料对不确定变量进行订正,以达到订正参数的目的。采用一个简化的空气质量方程,对模型参数订正方案进行检验,结果证明,提出的方案可行和有效。同时发现,随着观测资料精度的提高,无论是参数还是模型的状态变量,估计分析值的精度也得到相应的提高。     

石化装置停工放空的VOCs排放估算参数要求探讨

石化装置开停工及检维修过程中的泄压吹扫放空是石化企业VOCs的重要排放源项之一。分析了我国石化企业对停工及检维修的现行操作规范与《石化行业VOCs污染源排查工作指南》中对该源项核算方法参数要求的不符之处,并参照美国炼油厂有毒有害空气污染物国家排放标准的相关规定,提出了监测和操作方面的改进建议。     

Source term estimation of natural gas leakage in utility tunnel by combining CFD and Bayesian inference method

As an effective way to construct and maintain various life pipelines in urban areas and industrial parks, the underground utility tunnel has been developed rapidly in China in recent years. However, the natural gas pipeline leakage in a utility tunnel may cause fire, explosion or other coupling disastrous accidents that could result in fatal consequences. The effective source term estimation (STE) of natural gas leakage can provide technical supports for emergency response during natural gas leakage accidents in utility tunnels. In this paper, a STE model with the combination of gas transport model, Bayesian inference and slice sampling method is proposed to estimate the source parameters of natural gas leakage in underground utility tunnels. The observed data can be integrated into the gas transport model and realize the inversion of natural gas leakage location and release rates. The parameter sensitivity analysis is presented to evaluate the robustness of the proposed model with good practicability, and the gas sensor layouts in the utility tunnel are analyzed and optimized. The spatio-temporal distribution of the leaked gas could be well predicted based on the estimation source parameters by the proposed STE model. The results show that the proposed model is an alternative and effective tool to provide technical supports for loss prevention and mitigation for natural gas leakage accidents in urban utility tunnels.     

工业企业大震灾害下直接经济损失评估方法研究——基于财务会计资产项目

大震灾害会导致工业企业遭受惨重经济损失。为了推进灾区恢复生产和重建工作的顺利开展,快速评估工业企业地震直接经济损失具有重要意义,而我国目前尚未有成熟的针对工业企业的统一评价方法。在总结国内外地震直接经济损失评估成果的基础上,从财务会计的角度提出了一种估算工业企业各项地震易损资产项目经济损失值的方法,详细阐述了各项参数的内涵,提出如何在实际应用中确定各参数数值,并结合汶川地震黑色金属冶炼及压延加工行业地震损失案例简要说明了评估过程。结果表明,该方法将大大提升灾损评估的时效性。     

鲸鱼优化算法下气体泄漏源波达方向估计法

为减小压力容器气体泄漏实时位置估算误差,准确监测容器工况,首先,从声学监测角度提出一种引入鲸鱼优化算法(WOA)的泄漏源估计方法,采用波达方向(DOA)估计法预测气体泄漏位置方向,获得泄漏源角坐标;然后,引入WOA自适应选择方法分解DOA的特征值,多次迭代得到最精确的泄漏位置;最后,以某化工厂中压力容器数据为实际算例,...     

Modelling the biological performance of a side-stream membrane bioreactor using ASM1

Membrane bioreactors(MBRs) are attracting global interest but the mathematical modeling of the biological performance of MBRs remains very limited. This study focuses on the modelling of a side-stream MBR system using Activated Sludge Model No. 1 (ASM1), and comparing the results with the modelling of traditional activated sludge processes. ASM1 parameters relevant for the long-term biological behaviour in MBR systems were calibrated(i, e. YH = 0.72gCOD/gCOD, YA = 0.25gCOD/gN, bH = 0.25 d^-1, bA = 0.080 d^-1 and fp =0.06), and generally agreed with the parameters in traditional activated sludge processes, with the exception that a higher autotrophic biomass decay rate was observed in the MBR. A sensitivity analysis for steady state operation and DO dynamics suggested that the biological performance of the MBR system (the sludge concentration, effluent quality and the DO dynamics) are very sensitive to the parameters(i.e. YH, YA, bH, hA, μmaxH and μmaxA), and influent wastewater components( X1, Ss, Xs, SNH).     

带有阶跃函数的GIM（1）预测模型及其应用

结合某水域地面水ＲＯＤ５的预测实践,研究提出了带有阶跃函数的ＧＩＭ（１）预测模型,并给出了估计这种模型参数的简便方法,从而扩大了ＧＩＭ（１）模型在环境系统中的应用范围,实例表明,运用该方法得到的模型比常规ＧＩＭ（１）具有更高的精度。     

Dynamic simulation and performance prediction of free displacer Stirling engines

ABSTRACT

In this study, a Stirling engine with a free-displacer and a kinematically controlled power piston was proposed and analyzed from thermodynamic and dynamic points of view. The analysis intended to reveal the dynamic behaviors of moving components of the engine as well as predicting global thermal performance of it. A dynamic-thermodynamic mathematical model of the engine involving the isothermal gas pressure equation and motion equations of the displacer, power piston and crankshaft was developed. For the solution of the dynamic-thermodynamic model equations, and simulation of the engine’s running, a computer program was prepared in FORTRAN language. By considering a hot-end temperature of 1,000 K and a cold-end temperature of 350 K, dimensions of mechanic, volumetric and thermal components of the engine were quantified interactively. Variations of engine speed, engine power, displacer stroke, and engine torque were examined with respect to the spring constant, displacer mass, displacer damping constant and external load and, results were graphically presented. In comparison with engines having free-piston and kinematically driven displacer, the thermodynamic performance of the free-displacer engine was found to be lower. The engine was found to be able to work at constant speed and power. The values of the displacer mass and spring constant were optimized as 1,500 g and 1,30,000 N/s, respectively and the global speed of the engine was determined to be 47.75 Hz for these values. The effective and the indicated work of the engine were determined to be 113 and 126 J, respectively.