云南蒋家沟泥石流运动特征及其发展趋势

根据蒋家沟1965~2005年的泥石流运动观测资料与会泽气象站1965~2005年日降水资料,应用Hurst指数分析泥石流的运动要素,研究发现:泥石流年输沙量的Hurst指数为0.682时,年输沙量呈较强的正持续性,未来呈增长趋势;降雨量的Hurst指数0.605时,降雨量呈较弱的正持续性,未来呈较弱的增长趋势。同时,运用小波分析方法,发现泥石流输沙量具有多时间尺度周期的特征,主要表现为:第8、14和24年分别为其第1、2和3活动周期;结合小波方差图分析可知:在未来15 a以上,年输沙量将呈减少趋势,泥石流活跃程度弱;而15 a以内,未来将会保持较短时间的增加趋势,泥石流活跃程度强。综合以上分析可知:蒋家沟泥石流具有规模巨大,作用强烈,类型齐全等主要特征。     

欧洲能源复兴计划CCS示范项目实施进展与启示

碳捕集与封存(Carbon Capture and Storage,CCS)作为最有前景可有效深度减排的低碳技术之一,在世界范围内受到广泛推行,特别是欧洲,其作为全球CCS技术的先行者,一直在积极推进该项技术工业化进程.2009年,欧盟委员会(European Commission,EC)启动欧洲能源复兴计划(European Energy Programme for Recovery,EEPR),正式批准资助6个全流程CCS示范项目.这6个CCS示范项目囊括了当前所有可行的CO2工业捕集技术,运输方式以及封存方法,本文将对其基本情况和最近进展进行介绍,并重点对欧盟层面的CCS法律法规与此6个项目所在欧盟成员国的CCS技术与政策环境的交互影响进行比对和分析,以进一步系统评述欧洲能源复兴计划CCS示范项目带来的积极成果,包括达成减排目标和气候政策,建立欧洲CCS示范项目网络共享平台,获得CCS技术研发突破等,同时也详细列举了这些项目目前所面临的阻碍与困境,如相关法律政策缺乏执行力,融资困难,公众接受度低,技术成本高等.最后,试探讨欧盟能源复兴计划CCS全流程示范项目实施发展现状对我国未来CCS商业化走向的思索与启示.     

泥石流灾害风险评价方法及其应用研究

探讨泥石流灾害风险评价的理论和方法;利用已有的泥石流灾害资料,建立泥石流风险评价体系和实施流程;提出风险评价的定量计算方法;结合遥感和地理信息系统技术,完成了云南省昆明市东川区泥石流灾害的定量风险评价。研究结果与泥石流实际分布和调查资料基本一致,表明所提出的泥石流灾害风险评价的理论与方法具有一定的理论价值和现实意义,可以为泥石流灾害风险评价和防灾减灾管理提供有益的科学依据。     

水幕在隧道中灭火的数值模拟研究

利用CFD软件中的专用FDS软件对水幕在隧道产生火灾进行灭火模拟研究,模拟水幕对隧道中火灾产生的烟气流动速度、烟气浓度以及温度等特性参数的影响,模拟得到水幕能有效地减慢地下隧道中烟雾的扩散和降低烟雾的温度,为地下工事中的人员逃离提供有力的保证,为加强地下工事的防御提供了理论参考。     

电缆隧道火灾数值仿真及分析

电缆隧道灭火以及人员疏散的关键,在于对灾变条件下隧道火灾参数变化的正确预测,特别是火焰、烟气蔓延范围,烟气浓度变化以及有毒气体的扩散范围等参数的预测。为了获得电缆隧道火灾参数,应用美国国家标准和技术研究院(NIST)开发的FDS(Fire Dynam ics Simulator)软件,建立电缆隧道模型,对隧道火灾进行全尺寸模拟,通过对模拟实验数据处理和分析,给出电缆隧道火灾时烟气浓度和氧气浓度,纵向温度的变化规律,火焰蔓延情况以及高温烟气在隧道中水平蔓延规律,为有效救援和紧急疏散以及消防决策提供一定依据。     

电缆隧道火灾有效灭火技术试验研究

针对工业企业的电缆隧道的灭火技术进行试验研究,探讨电缆隧道火灾的有效灭火安全措施并对不同灭火措施的灭火效果进行分析。利用火灾动力学模拟程序软件对电缆隧道火灾进行模拟,研究火灾中喷淋系统启用前后各时间点测点温度以及各时段内的降温速率,并与试验结果作对比分析,论证了灭火实验结果有效性,确定了电缆隧道火灾中无机隔板和防火门的安全防火时效,以及4种常用灭火剂在各时段的灭火效果。     

A method for regional-scale material flow and decoupling analysis: A demonstration case study of Aichi prefecture, Japan

We have developed a method to analyse the annual material flow in a prefecture and have calculated environmental indicators for a prefecture. Material flow analysis (MFA) is important to clarify the structure of a regional society and obtain environmental indicators for a circular society. However, MFA has not advanced in local governments because of few local statistics. We have developed a method to analyse the annual material flow in Aichi prefecture from 1980 to 2000 using an input–output (I–O) table and statistics of Aichi. We have verified the accuracy of this method by comparing its results for 2000 which calculated on the basis of official I–O table for 1995 with the I–O table data for 2000; the correlation coefficient obtained in this case is greater than 0.95. Moreover, by performing MFA, we have estimated the resource consumption and decoupling indicator of each industry in Aichi prefecture from 1980 to 2000. We could obtain more detailed and accurate environmental indicators by using our method. From these results, we could estimate the progress of Aichi prefecture towards a circular society.     

Anthropogenic metal cycles in China

The flows and stocks of seven important industrial metals were characterized for mainland China for several years in the dynamically changing decade of 1994–2004. One-year snapshot cycles are provided for chromium, nickel, and silver. For copper, zinc, lead, and iron, multiple-year cycles have been completed; they demonstrate that the flows of these metals into use in China doubled between 2000 and 2004. Although the Chinese per capita flows from production to disposal are mostly shown to be below the global average rate, they are increasing or are expected to increase dramatically. The metal resource efficiency is evaluated for several indicators of material flow analysis; these metrics for China are also below the global average values. The research quantitatively illustrates that China’s metal cycles may pose significant resource and environmental challenges in terms of their magnitudes and potential for growth.     

Effect of Snow Cover Conditions on the Hydrologic Regime: Case Study in a Pluvial‐Nival Watershed,Japan1

Abstract: Hydrologic monitoring in a small forested and mountainous headwater basin in Niigata Prefecture has been undertaken since 2000. An important characteristic of the basin is that the hydrologic regime contains pluvial elements year‐round, including rain‐on‐snow, in addition to spring snowmelt. We evaluated the effect of different snow cover conditions on the hydrologic regime by analyzing observed data in conjunction with model simulations of the snowpack. A degree‐day snow model is presented and applied to the study basin to enable estimation of the basin average snow water equivalent using air temperature at three representative elevations. Analysis of hydrological time series data and master recession curves showed that flow during the snowmelt season was generated by a combination of ground water flow having a recession constant of 0.018/day and diurnal melt water flow having a recession constant of 0.015/hour. Daily flows during the winter/snowmelt season showed greater persistence than daily flows during the warm season. The seasonal water balance indicated that the ratio of runoff to precipitation during the cold season (December to May) was about 90% every year. Seasonal snowpack plays an important role in defining the hydrologic regime, with winter precipitation and snowmelt runoff contributing about 65% of the annual runoff. The timing of the snowmelt season, indicated by the date of occurrence of the first significant snowmelt event, was correlated with the occurrence of low flow events. Model simulations showed that basin average snow water equivalent reached a peak around mid‐February to mid‐March, although further validation of the model is required at high elevation sites.     

Water‐Yield Reduction After Afforestation and Related Processes in the Semiarid Liupan Mountains,Northwest China1

Abstract: The increase of coverage of forest/vegetation is imperative to improve the environment in dry‐land areas of China, especially for protecting soil against serious erosion and sandstorms. However, inherent severe water shortages, drought stresses, and increasing water use competition greatly restrict the reforestation. Notably, the water‐yield reduction after afforestation generates intense debate about the correct approach to afforestation and forest management in dry‐land areas. However, most studies on water‐yield reduction of forests have been at catchment scales, and there are few studies of the response of total evapotranspiration (ET) and its partitioning to vegetation structure change. This motivates us to learn the linkage between hydrological processes and vegetation structure in slope ecosystems. Therefore, an ecohydrological study was carried out by measuring the individual items of water balance on sloping plots covered by different vegetation types in the semiarid Liupan Mountains of northwest China. The ratio of precipitation consumed as ET was about 60% for grassland, 93% for shrubs, and >95% for forestland. Thus, the water yield was very low, site‐specific, and sensitive to vegetation change. Conversion of grassland to forest decreased the annual water yield from slope by 50‐100 mm. In certain periods, the plantations at lower slopes even consumed the runon from upper slopes. Reducing the density of forests and shrubs by thinning was not an efficient approach to minimize water use. Leaf area index was a better indicator than plant density to relate ET to vegetation structure and to evaluate the soil water carrying capacity for vegetation (i.e., the maximum amount of vegetation that can be supported by the available soil water for an extended time). Selecting proper vegetation types and plant species, based on site soil water condition, may be more effective than the forest density regulation to minimize water‐yield reduction by vegetation coverage increase and notably by reforestation. Finally, the focuses in future research to improve the forest‐water relations in dry‐land areas are recommended as follows: vegetation growth dynamics driven by environment especially water conditions, coupling of ecological and hydrological processes, further development of distributed ecohydrological models, quantitative relation of eco‐water quota of ecosystems with vegetation structures, multi‐scaled evaluation of soil water carrying capacity for vegetation, and the development of widely applicable decision support tools.