NITRATE CONCENTRATIONS IN ILLINOIS RIVERS 1967 TO 1974: COMPARISON AMONG REPORTING AGENCIES1

ABSTRACT: Long term data on surface water quality can sometimes be assembled by combining data collected by different agencies at different times and assuming that between agency differences in data quality are insignificant. The objective of this paper was to assess the quality of riverine nitrate (NO₃) concentrations in Illinois measured and reported by four agencies from 1967 to 1974 by comparing median values for similar sampling locations and periods. A total of 17 river reaches were identified for which two agencies reported NO₃ concentrations during similar periods. Nonparametric comparison of median values and analysis of covariance with discharge as a covariant produced similar results. Nitrate concentrations reported by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from 1967 to 1971 were not statistically (P > 0.05) different from values reported by the Illinois State Water Survey (ISWS) for two of three river reaches. Additionally, NO₃ concentrations reported by USGS from 1972 to 1974 were not statistically different than concentrations reported by the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IEPA) for four of five river reaches. From 1969 to 1971, NO₃ concentrations reported by the Illinois Department of Public Heath and the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IDPH/IEPA) were less than one‐fourth the magnitude of values reported by ISWS. The median NO₃ concentrations measured by the Central Illinois Public Service (CIPS) were significantly greater than those measured by USGS and IDPH/IEPA in the three comparable sampling locations. The use of NO₃ concentrations measured by CIPS and IDPH/IEPA prior to 1972 is not recommended.     

TEMPORAL CHANGES IN THE YADKIN RIVER FLOW VERSUS SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION RELATIONSHIP1

ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log₁₀ streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log₁₀ suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log₁₀ streamflow versus log₁₀ suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log₁₀ streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration.     

AN EVALUATION OF THE AVAILABLE TECHNIQUES FOR ESTIMATING MISSING FECAL COLIFORM DATA1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the findings of a study aimed at evaluating the available techniques for estimating missing fecal coliform (FC) data on a temporal basis. The techniques investigated include: linear and nonlinear regression analysis and interpolation functions, and the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs). In all, seven interpolation, two regression, and one ANN model structures were investigated. This paper also investigates the validity of a hypothesis that estimating missing FC data by developing different models using different data corresponding to different dynamics associated with different trends in the FC data may result in a better model performance. The FC data (counts/100 ml) derived from the North Fork of the Kentucky River in Kentucky were employed to calibrate and validate various models. The performance of various models was evaluated using a wide variety of standard statistical measures. The results obtained in this study are able to demonstrate that the ANNs can be preferred over the conventional techniques in estimating missing FC data in a watershed. The regression technique was not found suitable in estimating missing FC data on a temporal basis. Further, it has been found that it is possible to achieve a better model performance by first decomposing the whole data set into different categories corresponding to different dynamics and then developing separate models for separate categories rather than developing a single model for the composite data set.     

多级模糊综合评判方法在泥石流评价中的应用

介绍了多级模糊综合评判方法在泥石流评价中的应用, 指出了在进行模糊评判的时候,评判因子的选取以及隶属函数的构造应具体结合泥石流自身的特点来进行,并应用此方法对西南某拟建水电站坝址附近泥石流沟危险性做出了评价,评价结果与实际调查结果比较吻合.     

黄河积石峡水电站库区泥石流危险度评价

在选取一次(可能)最大冲出物方量、泥石流发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、流域相对高差、流域切割密度、泥沙补给段长度比7个因子为泥石流沟谷危险度划分的主要因子的基础上,对评价因子隶属度的确定作了分析和阐述,并运用模糊综合评判法对黄河上游积石峡水电站库区16条泥石流沟进行了危险度划分.     

自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向

由于自然灾害系统的复杂性及数据资料的不完备性,人们不可能精确估计任何自然灾害发生的概率,"概率值估不准"是现有超越概率风险区划图的致命弱点.简要回顾了针对这一问题已进行的提高估计精度和进行模糊风险计算的有关研究,并将模糊风险研究引入风险区划图的编制,给出了自然灾害软风险区划图的定义和一个初步的样式.讨论了这种风险图在体现风险值估不准方面,以及在为用户提供更多风险信息,为决策者提供调整余地等方面的优点.研究结果表明,软风险区划图是自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向.为推进这一研究领域的发展,对今后的工作提出了一些建议.     

非饱和土边坡稳定的安全分析及进展

笔者基于基质吸力和土抗剪强度之间的关系和非饱和土力学理论 ,以基质吸力问题为中心 ,通过工程实例对影响非饱和土边坡滑动的各种内在及外界因素进行了参数分析 ,尤其对降雨入渗和裂隙影响的定量分析新进展进行了研究。研究结果表明 :非饱和土边坡稳定分析应加强考虑基质吸力对抗剪强度的折减影响 ,修正极限平衡方法对考虑降雨入渗 ,裂隙影响及暂态渗流的非饱和土边坡稳定性研究具有工程意义和实用价值。     

我国道路交通安全发展情景分析

以日本和美国为例 ,分析了发达国家道路交通事故高发期的发展历程 ,得出了道路交通事故的上升与国家经济发展和机动化增长有着直接关系的结论。笔者通过分析和预测我国经济和道路交通的发展情景发现 ,今后我国道路交通发展特征和日本道路交通高发期的情况十分类似。如果现有交通管理体制和技术措施没有大的变化 ,我国道路交通事故死亡人数到 2 0 2 0年可能会超过 2 3万人。为此 ,国家应尽快改善道路交通管理方面所存在体制上、行政上和技术上的不足 ,防止出现笔者所预测的道路交通事故极其严重的局面。     

给水管道振动信号的小波分析及消振研究

某核发电厂部分蒸汽和给水管道振动情况非常严重 ,以致影响到正常的安全生产。笔者从给水管道的测振出发 ,并利用 3层Daubechise对振动信号进行了小波消噪、滤波、重构处理 ,以找到影响管系振动的激励源的主要频域成分。进而利用比较成熟的结构分析软件ANSYS对管系进行了模态分析 ,得到系统的低阶固有频率和振型。根据管道振动的原因 ,在不改变管系主要特征的基础上 ,给出了简单易行的消振措施 ,实际运行情况表明消振方法效果良好。     

聚丙烯车间12m3釜聚合岗危险分析及安全措施

聚合岗位是石油化工厂聚丙烯车间重要且非常危险的岗位,一旦发生意外事故,将会导致人员的重大伤亡和巨大的经济损失。笔者依据聚丙烯车间生产现状,详细地介绍了12m3 釜聚合岗位工艺流程,用“系统安全”的理论和方法对其主要物质、生产工艺、操作过程的危险性进行了辨识,且绘制了主要危险点分布图;通过危险源辨识可知,聚合釜具有的超温、超压特点是该岗位众多危险源中最为严重的潜在危险,应用“事故树法”对聚合釜超温、超压爆炸事故进行了危险分析,找出其爆炸潜在的危险因素有2 4种,该事故树的最小割集共有6 6个,表明聚合釜爆炸可能性是很大的。依据分析结果,针对聚合釜爆炸可能性最大的危险因素,提出了安全对策与措施,以避免或减少爆炸事故的发生