基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法研究

为确定燃气管网风险评估的关键风险因素,以A省各地市燃气管网为研究对象,基于燃气专家经验确定燃气管线风险等级,提出基于Logistic回归的燃气管网风险因素重要度分析方法。采用样本增强及随机抽样的方式,选取400个均衡样本作为管网评估数据输入,通过因子分析方法对其进行降维,得到3个公共因子并作为一级指标反向构建燃气管网风险评估指标体系;利用有序多分类Logistic回归方法,根据回归系数绝对值大小对风险因素进行重要度排序。研究结果表明：外界环境对燃气管网风险的贡献程度相对较高,管道自身因素和巡检养护次之。研究结果可为城市燃气风险防控提供理论依据和方法参考。     

Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.     

石灰窑烟气治理技术探讨

依据石灰窑烟气的特点,提出了一种新型的烟气治理工艺——SDS干法脱硫+布袋除尘脱硝一体化技术;分析了该技术的工艺流程、技术优势和关键系统.工程案例表明,该技术处理效果好、运行成本低,适用于我国石灰窑烟气的治理.     

基于2GW-HAZOP与偏离度的输气站降压排污作业风险评估

为预防输气站降压排污过程中发生事故,提出1种基于2GW-HAZOP与偏离度的作业过程风险评估方法.在HAZOP方法的基础上定义作业偏差,将传统7种工艺参数偏差引导词映射到1个偏差二元组中;通过将作业过程节点功能作为参量,采用节点跨越和节点功能偏离2种引导词,从而构建节点功能偏差;进一步通过定义功能偏离度和控制措施偏离度...     

管道结构对氢/空预混气体爆炸特性影响研究

为研究管道结构对氢-空预混气体爆炸特性影响,采用实验与数值模拟相结合的方法,分析不同管道结构内氢-空预混气体燃爆时火焰传播进程、爆炸压力、湍流动能变化及流场分布.结果表明:90°弯管对氢-空预混气体爆炸强度增强作用明显高于T型分岔管和直管.火焰阵面在结构突变处褶皱变形较明显,并出现大尺度强湍流和涡团,气团脉动速度与湍流...     

综合管廊燃气舱结构形式对燃气爆炸超压的影响

为研究地下综合管廊燃气舱结构形式对燃气爆炸超压的影响,采用数值模拟的方法,改变燃气舱高度,通风分区长度和局部开口大小,分析不同情况下的燃气爆炸超压变化规律.结果表明:冲击波传播速度随燃气舱高度的增加而减小,随着高度的增加,超压峰值曲线由"驼峰状"逐渐变为两端高中间低的"盆形",爆炸过程产生的最大超压与高度成反比关系.超...     

连续起伏管道投产过程中的气相运移研究

为应对山区液体管道在投产过程中可能出现的气阻、超压问题,从气相运移角度出发,建立液顶气模型,研究在1个U型单元内积气形成、压缩和破碎的全过程,在此基础上,提出连接各个U型单元的气相的传递函数,探讨背压累积因素下,连续起伏管道投产过程中各个U型管段的积气情况和压力的变化,进行动态的建模和计算.以国内某原油管道的现场投产数...     

Thermodynamic investigation and hydrate inhibition of real gas flow through orifice during depressurization

A thermodynamic procedure has been proposed which can be used to predict the gas pressure, temperature and flow rate through orifice upon chock flow condition, using equation of state (EOS). The procedure applied for emergency depressurization operation incorporating the Peng-Robinson EOS and validated by comparing flow rates of a multi-component hydrocarbon gas mixture for thirteen experimental cases. The average absolute deviations of the predicted flow rates for orifice discharge coefficients of 0.85 and 0.9, are 7.36% and 2.03%, respectively. The corresponding error for API 520 (American Petroleum Institute Recommendation Practice 520) method is 6.91%. In this work, the hydrate formation temperature and hydrate inhibitor type and its required weight fraction for preventing the hydrate formation upon orifice and its upstream conditions are evaluated by the EZ-Thermo software using the Moshfeghian–Maddox method. The results qualitatively show that the hydrate prevention is essential for the safety of the operation due to low temperature condition.     

采场通风方式与瓦斯运移规律研究

采场是煤矿生产的核心地带,而采场通风系统是确保采场作业安全,创造良好生产环境的重要环节。本文以采场风流流动及瓦斯运移理论为基础,通过现场试验、模型模拟试验及计算机模拟研究等方法,着重研究了中国常用的和有发展前途的走向长壁后退式U型通风方式、U+L型通曲方式、后退式Y型通风方式条件下采场风流流动及瓦斯运移规律。     

泄爆面积比对泄爆门封闭泄爆特性的影响研究

为研究泄爆面积比对泄爆门泄爆特性的影响,运用FLUENT软件建立煤矿井下1:1巷道模型,在不同泄爆面积比的工况下对瓦斯爆炸传播规律及泄爆过程进行模拟,分析其变化特征和封闭泄爆效果.结果表明:S0工况条件下,压力和温度衰减后保持在0.29 MPa和565 K;S1～S4工况条件下,S4比S1,S2和S3达到封闭状态时间快...