典型河谷城市儿童土壤与灰尘铅暴露风险

为定量评价河谷型城市土壤与灰尘铅对城市儿童健康的影响与风险,结合野外调查的基础上,以陕西渭河谷地典型工业城市宝鸡、西安、渭南和铜川为研究区域,以定量分析河谷型城市儿童环境铅暴露为核心,收集4个城市土壤与灰尘分析样品总计243个。利用X射线荧光光谱法测定了4个城市土壤与灰尘铅的含量;采用BCR连续形态分级法探究了城市土壤与灰尘重金属铅地球化学形态分布与迁移特征;根据US EPA污染物暴露与健康风险评价模型对城市儿童铅暴露进行了评价。研究结果表明渭河谷地典型城市宝鸡、铜川、西安和渭南城市土壤与灰尘铅浓度(X±SD)分别为(409.2±52.54)和(624.70±66.15)mg·kg-1、(357.47±41.37)和(592.60±36.78)mg·kg-1、(61.4±13.31)和(78.42±14.89)mg·kg-1、(46.71±12.11)和(64.7±13.76)mg·kg-1,均高出陕西省土壤铅背景值;污染水平依次为宝鸡铜川西安渭南。4个河谷型城市土壤与灰尘重金属铅发生整体迁移的趋势为:宝鸡城市灰尘(90.71%)西安城市灰尘(84.74%)≥宝鸡城市土壤(83.12%)渭南城市灰尘(74.89%)≥西安城市土壤(74.50%)铜川城市灰尘(72.49%)铜川城市土壤(57.50%)渭南城市土壤(53.79%)。可见,铅在均在城市灰尘中的迁移趋势远大于相应的城市土壤。4个城市土壤与灰尘均表现出较大的儿童暴露致癌风险,宝鸡和铜川城市儿童土壤与灰尘铅暴露也分别存在非致癌风险,风险程度依次为宝鸡铜川西安渭南。儿童铅暴露致癌与非致癌风险程度与其城市土壤和灰尘中铅可氧化态分布呈相似的规律,表明碱性的城市土壤与城市灰尘(p H7)中可氧化态铅可能是导致河谷型城市儿童铅暴露风险和儿童血铅污染的主要形态和因素。由此,城市燃煤排放与含铅制品的加工等活动可能是渭河谷地河谷型城市儿童血铅与铅暴露最主要的贡献源,必须采取长期有效的监测与控制措施。     

进出口工业化学品风险管理与风险评估进展

我国是世界化学品生产和贸易的大国。大量化学品的生产和进出口贸易给我国化学品风险管理和风险评估带来了巨大挑战。在借鉴发达国家和经济组织对化学品风险管理经验和评估技术的基础上,我国在近年来也逐步开展了化学品的管理和控制,以应对当前日益突出的化学品环境安全和健康安全事故。本文从我国化学品管理与国外化学品风险管理之间的对比出发,在梳理化学品管理政策发展的过程中,重点就我国环境保护部门对有毒和进口化学品、新化学物质和废弃危险化学品以及质检部门对进出口工业化学品的管理和控制措施,以及化学品的评估技术进行了综述。通过与发达国家就化学品风险管理与评估技术的对比,指出我国目前化学品管理和评估的不足与欠缺,并提出一些可行的应对措施与办法,为完善我国化学品风险管理和评估提供一定的参考。     

利用N-乙酰-β-D-氨基葡萄糖苷酶含量评价农药对花翅摇蚊种群发育的影响

为了进一步探索种群水平的生态风险评估方法,本文利用β-N-Acetyl-D-glucosaminidase(NAGase)的变化量来监测农药对摇蚊种群发育的影响。从花翅摇蚊Chironomus kiiensis体内分离纯化得到电泳纯的NAGase,并通过免疫大白兔制得NAGase的多克隆抗体。运用间接非竞争ELISA法检测抗体特异性,结果表明其与共同存在于水体的一些生物的NAGase的交叉反应率为隆线溞4.41%、老年低额溞3.12%、多刺裸腹溞3.40%、中华薄壳介4.17%、日本沼虾3.23%、白纹伊蚊7.50%、小球藻0.5%。运用抗体测得毒死蜱、氰戊菊酯和阿维菌素3种杀虫剂对于摇蚊NAGase释放量的12 d-EC50分别为1.2012、0.0043和0.6281μg·L-1,以NAGase活力作为测试终点,测得相应的12 d-EC50:1.4765、0.0051和0.6756μg·L-1,两者差异不显著,但均显著低于以死亡作为测试终点的12 d-LC50:4.8171、0.0954和2.1340μg·L-1,且毒力大小均为氰戊菊酯阿维菌素毒死蜱。上述结果表明,利用NAGase多克隆抗体可以特异性地检测农药对花翅摇蚊种群发育的影响。     

我国城市冬季PM2.5空间特征及其人为影响因子

以我国114个城市冬季(2013年12月-2014年2月)公布的PM25数据为基础,结合其他相关数据,运用空间自相关分析、克里格插值法和逐步回归分析法,研究我国冬季PM2.5浓度空间分布差异及其影响因素.结果显示,研究期间PM2.5在空间分布上具有高值集聚、低值集聚和高值邻域的低值集聚的变化特征,全局自相关系数Moran's I为0.27.PM2.5浓度分布由北到南、从内陆到沿海具有先升高后逐渐降低的变化趋势,高浓度区域主要集中在华北平原、长江中下游平原和陕西关中平原等地区,这些区域的冬季PM2.5平均质量浓度都达到150 μg·m-3以上,最高达250 μg·m-3.多因子逐步回归分析结果表明,人为活动对我国高浓度PM25(＞150μg·m-3)分布影响显著,对低浓度PM2.5(≤75μg·m-3)分布影响不显著.市辖区人口密度和第二产业GDP是显著影响我国高浓度PM2.5分布的主要人为影响因子.市辖区建成区面积、全市年末总人口和市辖区道路面积等是影响我国城市间PM2.5浓度分布差异的主要人为影响因子.     

Dynamic-risk-informed safety barrier management: An application to cost-effective barrier optimization based on data from multiple sources

An integrated approach for performance assessment and management of safety barriers in a systemic manner is needed concerning the prevention and mitigation of major accidents in chemical process industries. Particularly, the effects of safety barriers on system risk reduction should be assessed in a dynamic manner to support the decision-making on safety barrier establishments and improvements. A simulation approach, named Simulink-based Safety Barrier Modeling (SSBM), is proposed in this paper to conduct dynamic risk assessment of chemical facilities with the consideration of the degradation of safety barriers. The main functional features of the SSBM include i) the basic model structures of SSBM can be determined based on bow-tie diagrams, ii) multiple data (periodic proof test data, continuous condition-monitoring data, and accident precursor data) may be combined to update barrier failure probabilities and initiating event probabilities, iii) SSBM is able to handle uncertainty propagation in probabilistic risk assessment by using Monte Carlo simulations, and iv) cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and optimization algorithms are integrated to support the decision-making on safety barrier establishments and improvements. An illustrative case study is demonstrated to show the procedures of applying the SSBM on dynamic risk-informed safety barrier management and validate the feasibility of implementing the SSBM for cost-effective safety barrier optimization.     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

Methodology for Natech coupling risk assessment using correlative multi-criteria decision-making method

When a natural disaster occurs, it may damage multiple industrial facilities in a certain area at the same time, and the resulting Natech events may have an impact on the surrounding industrial facilities, generating coupling risk. In this study, the assessment of Natech events coupling risk is conducted using the method of correlated multi-criteria decision-making, and the knowledge of fuzzy measures is introduced to solve the uncertainty problem in Natech coupling risk. Natech Coupling Risk Index is constructed to involve physical and functional facilities. The concept of equivalent population is proposed to compare the risks generated by physical facilities and functional facilities. And economic indicators are added to calculate the comprehensive risk value. The purpose of this contribution is to enable local government managers to use their expertise and resources and the existing risk assessment of the plants themselves and rely on the scoring of experts limitedly to quickly and easily identify potential high Natech risk areas. In the calculation process of coupling risk, the government can also take the lead to promote information communication between different plants and other industrial subjects. The proposed method was applied in a realistic chemical industry area in Guangzhou, China and in a hypothetical town. The result shows that the physical risk may be transferred to the population and economy through the coupling between industrial facilities and the functional link between functional facilities and population and economy.     

Dynamic risk assessment for underground gas storage facilities based on Bayesian network

Loss of the underground gas storage process can have significant effects, and risk analysis is critical for maintaining the integrity of the underground gas storage process and reducing potential accidents. This paper focuses on the dynamic risk assessment method for the underground gas storage process. First, the underground gas storage process data is combined to create a database, and the fault tree of the underground gas storage facility is built by identifying the risk factors of the underground gas storage facility and mapping them into a Bayesian network. To eliminate the subjectivity in the process of determining the failure probability level of basic events, fuzzy numbers are introduced to determine the prior probability of the Bayesian network. Then, causal and diagnostic reasoning is performed on the Bayesian network to determine the failure level of the underground gas storage facilities. Based on the rate of change of prior and posterior probabilities, sensitivity and impact analysis are combined to determine the significant risk factors and possible failure paths. In addition, the time factor is introduced to build a dynamic Bayesian network to perform dynamic assessment and analysis of underground gas storage facilities. Finally, the dynamic risk assessment method is applied to underground gas storage facilities in depleted oil and gas reservoirs. A dynamic risk evaluation model for underground gas storage facilities is built to simulate and validate the dynamic risk evaluation method based on the Bayesian network. The results show that the proposed method has practical value for improving underground gas storage process safety.     

A thermal hazard risk evaluation of emulsion polymerisation and vinyl acetate monomers in the latex manufacturing process

Latex is extensively used in industrial products. However, completing some processes at scale leads to unacceptable levels of risk that need to be quantified and mitigated. Systemic risks must be eliminated wherever possible, and safety takes priority over efficiency and quality. To assess the process risks accurately, four raw materials were examined in this study: polyvinyl acetate (PVA), latex process-initiator-ammonium persulfate (APS) and hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂), and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM). The physicochemical composition of the PVA latex process was determined via calorimeters, including differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and vent sizing package 2 (VSP2). The calorimetry results showed that the protective colloid was a critical component in the polymerisation reaction. In addition, when adding initiators to the system, it is vital to observe the normal ratio of materials and keep the stirring system operating. The scenario system also simulated the effects of shutting down various inhibitory programs, including the build-up of free radicals that could result in a runaway reaction when the initiator was added in excess. On the other hand, the result of the risk matrix displayed as a medium level, indicating that although the probability of an accident is low, the resulting severity is at disaster level. As a result, this study provides process safety engineers with a reliable frame of reference for assessing the potential dangers in the PVA latex manufacturing process.     

小煤柱巷道围岩变形的力学机理及演化过程研究

为研究小煤柱巷道围岩变形力学机理与演化过程,以石槽村矿某回风巷为研究对象,采用理论分析、FLAC3D数值模拟以及现场实测等方法,分析小煤柱条件下巷道围岩变形的主要影响因素以及表征特点。研究结果表明:侧压系数为巷道围岩变形的主控因素;侧压系数与巷道顶底板位移量呈正比关系,与两帮位移量呈反比关系;回风巷每次受采动影响时,变形可分为巷道稳定阶段、位移分化阶段以及位移加速变化阶段;围岩变形主要发生在一次采动影响时,此时巷道变形呈现明显的不对称,左右两帮的位移量差异明显,巷道的中心位置明显偏移。研究结果可为小煤柱巷道围岩支护提供技术参考。