船舶区域溢油风险程度甄别的人工神经网络方法

利用误差反向传播 (BP)人工神经网络 ,建立了海域船舶溢油风险程度甄别的评价模型。该模型能够反映出研究海域各区域发生船舶溢油事件的风险等级差别 ,具有一定的客观性和实用性。     

Residual risk for cytogenetic abnormalities after prenatal diagnosis by interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH)

Results from conventional cytogenetic studies on 21 609 amniotic fluid specimens were analyzed retrospectively to determine the residual risk for a cytogenetic abnormality if interphase FISH, capable of only detecting aneuploidy for chromosomes 13, 18, 21, X and Y, was performed and did not reveal an abnormality. Detection rates (the probability of detecting a cytogenetic abnormality when an abnormality is present) and residual risks (the likelihood of a cytogenetic abnormality, in view of normal interphase FISH results) were calculated for the four major clinical indications for prenatal diagnosis (advanced maternal age, abnormal maternal serum screen indicating increased risk for trisomy 18 or trisomy 21, abnormal maternal serum screen indicating increased risk for neural tube defects and ultrasound abnormality). Differences in detection rates were observed to depend on clinical indication and presence or absence of ultrasound abnormalities. The detection rate ranged from 18.2 to 82.6% depending on the clinical indication. The detection rates of abnormalities significant to the pregnancy being evaluated (i.e. abnormalities excluding familial balanced rearrangements and familial markers) were between 28.6 and 86.4%. The presence of ultrasound abnormalities increased the detection rate from 72.2 to 92.5% for advanced maternal age and from 78.6 to 91.3% for abnormal maternal serum screen, indicating increased risk for trisomy 18 or trisomy 21. With regard to residual risk, the risk for a clinically significant abnormality decreased from 0.9–10.1%, prior to the interphase FISH assay, to a residual risk of 0.6–1.5% following a normal interphase FISH result in the 4 groups studied. Providing patients with detection rates and residual risks, most relevant to their situation (clinical indication and presence or absence of ultrasound abnormality) during counseling, could help them better understand the advantages and limitations of interphase FISH in their prenatal diagnostic evaluation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Size distributions and sources of elements in particulate matter at curbside, urban and rural sites in Beijing

Size distributions of 29 elements in aerosols collected at urban, rural and curbside sites in Beijing were studied. High levels of Mn, Ni, As, Cd and Pb indicate the pollution of toxic heavy metals cannot be neglected in Beijing. Principal component analysis (PCA) indicates 4 sources of combustion emission, crust related sources, traffic related sources and volatile species from coal combustion. The elements can be roughly divided into 3 groups by size distribution and enrichment factors method (EFs). Group 1 elements are crust related and mainly found within coarse mode including Al, Mg, Ca, Sc, Ti, Fe, Sr, Zr and Ba; Group 2 elements are fossil fuel related and mostly concentrated in accumulation mode including S, As, Se, Ag, Cd, Tl and Pb; Group 3 elements are multi-source related and show multi-mode distribution including Be, Na, K, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Ga, Mo, Sn and Sb. The EFs of Be, S, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Ga, Se, Mo, Ag, Cd, Sb, Tl and Pb show higher values in winter than in summer indicating sources of coal combustion for heating in winter. The abundance of Cu and Sb in coarse mode is about 2-6 times higher at curbside site than at urban site indicating their traffic sources. Coal burning may be the major source of Pb in Beijing since the phase out of leaded gasoline, as the EFs of Pb are comparable at both urban and curbside sites, and about two times higher in winter than that in summer.     

Ultrafine particle emission characteristics of diesel engine by on-board and test bench measurement

This study investigated the emission characteristics of ultrafine particles based on test bench and on-board measurements. The bench test results showed the ultrafine particle number concentration of the diesel engine to be in the range of (0.56-8.35) × 10⁸ cm^-3. The on-board measurement results illustrated that the ultrafine particles were strongly correlated with changes in real-world driving cycles. The particle number concentration was down to 2.0 × 10⁶ cm^-3 and 2.7 × 10⁷ cm^-3 under decelerating and idling operations and as high as 5.0 × 10⁸ cm^-3 under accelerating operation. It was also indicated that the particle number measured by the two methods increased with the growth of engine load at each engine speed in both cases. The particle number presented a "U" shaped distribution with changing speed at high engine load conditions, which implies that the particle number will reach its lowest level at medium engine speeds. The particle sizes of both measurements showed single mode distributions. The peak of particle size was located at about 50-80 nm in the accumulation mode particle range. Nucleation mode particles will significantly increase at low engine load operations like idling and decelerating caused by the high concentration of unburned organic compounds.     

闽江福州段沉积物中多环芳烃的分布、来源及其生态风险

对闽江福州段37个沉积物样品中的15种多环芳烃(PAHs)进行了研究.结果表明,15种PAHs的总量在241.5～1310.8ng·g-1之间,均值为630.9ng·g-1,且从上游到下游整体上呈下降的趋势,但在福州市区附近有突增的现象.沉积物中有机质含量(SOM)与PAHs总量呈显著正相关(r=0.58,p<0.01).同时,应用因子分析和多元线性回归方法对PAHs进行了源解析.结果表明,煤燃烧来源占31.7%,汽油燃烧占25.2%,柴油燃烧占28.7%,石油泄漏源占14.5%,石油燃烧是闽江福州段沉积物中PAHs的主要来源.用效应区间中值ERM(the effects range median)和效应区间低值ERL(the effects range low)及其商值平均方法对闽江福州段沉积物中PAHs的生态风险进行了评价.结果表明,有4个样品芴的含量超过ERL指导值(19ng·g-1),具有一定的生态风险,其余PAH单体和PAHs总量都不超标.     

运用三维荧光光谱解析高温厌氧产氢反应过程对温度变化的响应

为建立反应器运行状态的荧光光谱快速监测方法,应用三维荧光光谱表征了高温厌氧反应器的出水,采用平行因子分析方法分析后得到3种荧光组分——蛋白质、辅酶NADH和核黄素,并获得它们的激发发射光谱图及相对浓度.结果表明,当温度从50 ℃上升到60 ℃的过程中,3种荧光物质的相对浓度均呈现相应的变化,它们与反应器的运行参数呈现明显相关性.进一步研究表明,核黄素是高温厌氧产氢反应中的特有荧光物质,采用标准加入法和二阶校正方法可以测定其实际浓度,出水中核黄素浓度变化范围为0.04~0.13 mg·L^-1.该研究为厌氧产氢反应器的运行监控提供了理论基础.     

基于支持向量机的湖泊生态系统健康评价研究

利用支持向量机在处理分类问题、小样本问题和泛化推广方面的优势,构建了基于支持向量机的湖泊生态系统健康评价模型.同时,对广州市最大的人工湖——白云湖的水质及生物群落情况进行了监测,最后运用该模型对白云湖生态系统健康状况进行了评价.评价结果表明,白云湖生态系统处于病态状态,不能达到其净化水质的设计作用.建议从提高进水水质、实施湖区截污和丰富生物量3方面改善白云湖生态系统健康水平.与传统熵权综合健康指数法和熵权模糊综合评价法相比,所建模型更加客观、科学地评价了湖泊生态系统健康状况,能够为湖泊生态系统健康管理提供一定依据,具有广阔的应用前景.     

象山港养殖区缢蛏和泥蚶的Cu、Cd、Pb含量及其健康风险评价

根据2010年全年4个季节象山港5个养殖区(大佳何、郭巨、咸祥、桐照、西店)两种贝类(缢蛏、泥蚶)体中的3种重金属(Cu、Cd、Pb)的检测结果,分析和比较了象山港内贝类体中的重金属含量,并应用两种评价模型进行了健康风险评价.结果为:所测得Cu、Pb、Cd在5个不同的养殖区的缢蛏和泥蚶体中的含量分别在2.89～4.99、0.24～0.39、0.12～0.22mg.kg-1和0.79～1.05、0.10～0.38、2.17～4.60mg.kg-1范围,其中大佳何的缢蛏体内的Cu、Pb含量要高于其他4个养殖区,郭巨的泥蚶体内的Cd含量高于其他4个区;其次,同一种重金属Cu、Pb、Cd在两种贝类中的含量分别为1.52～10.48和0.66～1.20mg.kg-1,0.08～0.68和0.02～1.01mg.kg-1,及0.04～0.50和0.74～4.43mg.kg-1范围,Cu在缢蛏体中的含量远远大于泥蚶,而Cd在泥蚶中的含量远远大于缢蛏;所得结论为:不同养殖区内,同一种重金属在同种贝类体内的含量存在明显的差异;同一种重金属在不同种类贝类中的含量也存在明显的差异;贝类的不同养殖规格及不同年龄间Cu、Pb、Cd的含量基本相同,无明显差异;采用USEPA和PMTDI两种健康风险评价模型得出相同的结果:除泥蚶体中Cd可能存在致癌健康风险外,其他对人体均不存在健康风险.     

兰州市大气中苯并(a)芘与儿童尿中1-羟基芘的分析及风险评价

对兰州市不同区域空气中苯并(a)芘和儿童尿液中1-羟基芘同步采样,分别采用气相色谱-质谱联用法和高效液相色谱法进行检测.结果表明:不同区域苯并(a)芘浓度有显著差别,研究区日均浓度约为对照区日均浓度的两倍.冬季大气中的浓度明显高于夏季,其中研究区冬季均值约为夏季的26.46倍,对照区冬季均值约为夏季的29.41倍.儿童尿中1-羟基芘的浓度与空气中苯并(a)芘的浓度呈一致的变化,冬季研究区儿童尿中1-羟基芘的均值为0.86μmol·(mol肌酐)-1,对照区为0.63μmol·(mol肌酐)-1.冬季研究区儿童的终生超额危险度最高,达到2.32×10-4,接近不可接受水平.