串行接口控制技术研究及应用

本文研究在VB6．0中如何通过添加ActiveX控件MSComm，实现计算机与称重仪通过串行端口进行数据传送，为应用管理程序提供数据源。     

海洋信息系统图件的输入与数字化仪的连接

本文论述了各类海洋信息系统建设过程中空间数据的输入方法，比较了各种数字化方式的优缺点，并以数字化仪数字化作为空间数据的输入方式，就常见的ＧＩＳ软件ＡＲＣ／ＩＮＦＯ为例，对数字化仪参数的设置、数字化仪数据格式与ＡＲＣ／ＩＮＦＯ软件数据格式的匹配，连接状况测试等问题具体地介绍了实际解决问题的方案，为常见的数字化仪与ＧＩＳ软件连接问题提供了一个可借鉴的范例，同时为海洋信息系统空间信息的建立奠定了基础。     

区域历史地理研究与国土规划

人口与资源和环境之间的相互关系是一个历史过程。从发生学观点研究特写区域这种关系及其变化规律是区域历史地理研究的核心内容，探索历史上人口与资源和环境之间相互关系的规律及其演化机制，可为区域国土规划与整治中人口、资源与环境发展提供必要的历史借鉴和客观依据。同时，国土规划与整治的现实任务亦为区域历史地理研究提供了发展机遇。     

UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME FLOOD ESTIMATES INCORPRATING HISTORICAL DATA1

ABSTRACT: The ability to predict extreme floods is an important part of the planning process for any water project for which failure will be very costly. The length of a gage record available for use in estimating extreme flows is generally much shorter than the recurrence interval of the desired flows, resulting in estimates having a high degree of uncertainty. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the three parameter lognormal (3PLN) distribution, which make use of historical data, are presented. A Monte Carlo study of extreme flows estimated from samples drawn from three hypothetical 3PLN populations showed that inclusion of historical flows with the gage record reduced the bias and variance of extreme flow estimates. Asymptotic theory approximations of parameter variances and covariances calculated using the second and mixed partial derivatives of the log likelihood function agreed well with Monte Carlo results. First order approximations of the standard deviations of the extreme flow estimates did not agree with the Monte Carlo results. An alternative method for calculating those standard deviations, the “asymptotic simulation” method, is described. The standard deviations calculated by asymptotic simulation agree well with the Monte Carlo results.     

ESTIMATING CENTRAL TENDENCY FROM UNCENSORED TRACE LEVEL MEASUREMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The statistical analysis of data which have trace level measurements has traditionally been a two-step process in which data are first censored using criteria based on measurement precision, and then analyzed with statistical methods for censored data. The process might be more informative if data were left uncensored. In this paper, information loss attributable to censoring and measurement noise are assessed by comparing the sample mean and median of uncensored measurements with a log regression mean and median based on censored data. Measurements are derived from lognormal parent distributions which have random variability characteristic of trace level measurement. The relative performance of estimators used with error-free samples and with samples having measurement noise can be explained by differences between the probability distributions of parents and measurements. Measurement introduces bias and dispersion and transforms lognormal parent distributions toward greater symmetry. Estimates using uncensored data are less biased and more accurate than the log regression mean and median when censoring exceeds about 50 percent, and are not much worse at any fraction censored. For data with many (80 percent) results below the limit of detection, bias may be quite severe.     

大气监测仪器维护检修能力的评价

一直以来,环境大气监测的数据精度与维护成本,始终是数据应用部门和数据提供部门的难题之一.作者谷学先生根据多年的实档践,首次提出,运用数据对大气监测仪器维护管理进行评价的可行性,并试图建立仪器维护管理作业量化的评价系统.在仪器维护管理中,任何时候,都很难完全排除技术水平比较低的仪器维护检修人员,为了回避这种实际情况,作者通过对数字的分析指出,急需构建环境大气监测仪器维护管理业务能力的评价系统,并期待地方自制体通过评价手段,来选择和指导监测仪器维护管理人员.从而提高数据的精度和减低运转经费的开支.     

城市污染源空间信息系统及集成模式试验研究

以厦门市为对象开展的城市环境信息系统的试验研究中，基于地理信息系统（ＧＩＳ）平台和对象组件，通过建立城市环境空间数据库和污染源监测属性数据库，以及污染源信息管理决策支持系统，实现城市环境污染源空间增减、查询、统计分析的可视化。在分析了城市环境空间数据特点的基础上，提出环境空间信息系统的开发模式，并对应用系统的体系结构和紧密集成模式作了探讨。     

格尔木井地下流体主测项数据可靠性分析

本文介绍了格尔木井的基本情况及所架数字仪器的技术系统构成，对水位、地热、气氡等主测项2003年1月1日-2004年12月31日的数字化资料进行了初步分析，发现地热数据基本稳定；气氡数据由原集气装置的不合理，数据上下波动较大，基本无法使用，经改造后，数据趋于稳定；水位受到调节集气装置出水量的影响，但排除该影响后数据基本可以使用。     

用灰色组合模型预测环保投资

针对环保投资变化的非平稳性，采用灰以ＧＭ（１，１）模型分析环保投资的趋势项并与历史环保投资比较得一系列残差，然后应用人工神经网络模型进行了正以提高精度。     

Use of Integrated Modeling to Enhance Estimates of Population Dynamics Obtained from Limited Data

Abstract:  Demographic data of rare and endangered species are often too sparse to estimate vital rates and population size with sufficient precision for understanding population growth and decline. Yet, the combination of different sources of demographic data into one statistical model holds promise. We applied Bayesian integrated population modeling to demographic data from a colony of the endangered greater horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) . Available data were the number of subadults and adults emerging from the colony roost at dusk, the number of newborns from 1991 to 2005, and recapture data of subadults and adults from 2004 and 2005. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, and demographic rates remained constant across time. The greater horseshoe bat is a long-lived species with high survival rates (first year: 0.49 [SD 0.06]; adults: 0.91 [SD 0.02]) and low fecundity (0.74 [SD 0.12]). The yearly average population growth was 4.4% (SD 0.1%) and there were 92 (SD 10) adults in the colony in year 2005. Had we analyzed each data set separately, we would not have been able to estimate fecundity, the estimates of survival would have been less precise, and the estimate of population growth biased. Our results demonstrate that integrated models are suitable for obtaining crucial demographic information from limited data.