中国新克强指数的构建与实证分析

随着中国经济进入新常态,英国《经济学人》杂志构建的克强指数已无法反映中国经济的全貌,如何客观地反映中国经济的真实状况成为一个迫切需要解决的现实问题。为更好地测度中国经济运行的真实状况,本文根据李克强总理提出的"未来会更加关注就业、居民收入和生态环境的持续改善"的愿景,在原有克强指数的基础上,增加年末就业人员数、农村居民家庭人均纯收入、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入等就业和收入方面的指标,使用中国1995—2015年的相关数据和层次分析法构建了克强指数的修订版本即新克强指数,并将新克强指数与GDP增长率、克强指数进行了比较,发现新克强指数在反映中国经济波动和经济整体运行状态上有更为优良的性质。与GDP增长率相比,新克强指数克服了服务业比重提高带来的熨平效应,进而灵敏地反映中国经济波动情况,并对异常事件更加具有敏感性。相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数破除了因中国在第二产业上存在失衡性发展所带来的经济波动的杠杆效应,降低了经济增长中的虚假成分,从而与中国经济运行的整体关联度更为密切。此外,相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数在反映经济景气方面有着较好的时效性与关联性。采用时差相关分析法对新克强指数与宏观经济指标之间的关系进行分析,发现新克强指数在反映第一产业增加值、第三产业增加值、最终消费支出、资本形成总额、对外贸易、通货膨胀等方面具有优势。研究表明:新克强指数是更适宜测度中国经济的多元评价指标,为测度中国经济运行的真实状况提供了科学的参考依据。     

Offshore wind power potential of the Black Sea region in Turkey

Majority of the studies on offshore wind power potential assessment is limited to the examination of the wind speed only. This study examines the offshore wind power potential of the Black Sea coastal region in Turkey based on location selection criteria including territorial waters, military areas, civil aviation, shipping routes, pipelines and underground cables, social, and environmental concerns. Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) is used to do the statistical analysis of wind speed and wind direction data for 20 locations in the Black Sea coastal region. WAsP results are then elaborated based on the location selection criteria for better assessment of offshore wind power utilization. The study reveals that there are limited numbers of locations for offshore wind power generation in the Black Sea region in spite of its long coastline. Moreover, there is a high need for a zoning change for Amasra shores in order to utilize high offshore wind power potential of Amasra. Our finding suggests that location selection criteria other than wind speed should definitely be considered for better assessment of the wind power potential of a region.     

Antibiotic resistant bacteria/genes dissemination in lacustrine sediments highly increased following cultural eutrophication of Lake Geneva (Switzerland)

This study investigates faecal indicator bacteria (FIB), multiple antibiotic resistant (MAR), and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), of sediment profiles from different parts of Lake Geneva (Switzerland) over the last decades. MARs consist to expose culturable Escherichia coli (EC) and Enterococcus (ENT) to mixed five antibiotics including Ampicillin, Tetracycline, Amoxicillin, Chloramphenicol and Erythromycin. Culture-independent is performed to assess the distribution of ARGs responsible for, β-lactams (blaTEM; Amoxicillin/Ampicillin), Streptomycin/Spectinomycin (aadA), Tetracycline (tet) Chloramphenicol (cmlA) and Vancomycin (van). Bacterial cultures reveal that in the sediments deposited following eutrophication of Lake Geneva in the 1970s, the percentage of MARs to five antibiotics varied from 0.12% to 4.6% and 0.016% to 11.6% of total culturable EC and ENT, respectively. In these organic-rich bacteria-contaminated sediments, the blaTEM resistant of FIB varied from 22% to 48% and 16% to 37% for EC and ENT respectively, whereas the positive PCR assays responsible for tested ARGs were observed for EC, ENT, and total DNA from all samples. The aadA resistance gene was amplified for all the sediment samples, including those not influenced by WWTP effluent water. Our results demonstrate that bacteria MARs and ARGs highly increased in the sediments contaminated with WWTP effluent following the cultural eutrophication of Lake Geneva. Hence, the human-induced changing limnological conditions highly enhanced the sediment microbial activity, and therein the spreading of antibiotic resistant bacteria and genes in this aquatic environment used to supply drinking water in a highly populated area. Furthermore, the presence of the antibiotic resistance gene aadA in all the studied samples points out a regional dissemination of this emerging contaminant in freshwater sediments since at least the late nineteenth century.     

基于PROMETHEEⅡ法的污染场地土壤修复技术筛选及应用

依据当前污染场地土壤修复技术特点以及场地特征,构建4层12指标21方案的污染土壤修复技术决策分析结构,运用多属性决策分析方法——PROMETHEEⅡ偏好排序法,对当前场地修复技术以及典型场地条件进行了客观分析和综合评价,实现基于具体修复目标的污染场地土壤修复技术择优筛选,并采用该方法对虚拟特定污染场地的土壤修复技术筛选进行了实例应用。这为污染场地的治理和修复提供了方法依据和理论参考。     

Beyond savanna: An evolutionary and environmental psychology approach to behavioral effects of nature scenery in green advertising

Evolutionary psychology has been proposed as an analytic framework for the behavioral effects of landscapes displayed in advertising. In this study, an evolutionary and environmental psychology approach is used to analyze affective reactions to advertising depicting specific natural environments or urban scenes, both prominent ingredients of contemporary advertising imagery. The experimental field study exposed 750 participants at random to one advert of a set of 13 experimental green energy advertisements, each displaying a different biome. Six basic emotional responses (pleasure, arousal, happiness, freedom, safety, and interest) as well as attitude toward the ad and brand attitude were assessed subsequently. Anova and structural equation analysis were used for data analysis. Results of the study confirm the leading opinion on generalized more positive behavioral effects toward visual stimuli representing nature scenes with biospheric contents as opposed to pictures of urban environments or desert settings. In line with earlier empirical research, further findings do not support the hypothesis on an innate preference for savanna landscapes in adults but confirm preferences for images of lush green landscapes with water and familiar biomes. Overall results give significant support to the application of environmental and evolutionary psychology to advertising.     

基于冷阴极触发管振动试验夹具的设计

介绍了一种基于冷阴极触发管性能检测及振动试验所需的夹具,从夹具材料的选取、结构设计和刚度要求进行了设计,分析了该夹具在制造过程中存在的关键问题及解决方法,并在振动试验中加以验证。     

Combining a finite mixture distribution model with indicator kriging to delineate and map the spatial patterns of soil heavy metal pollution in Chunghua County, central Taiwan

This study identifies the natural background, anthropogenic background and distribution of contamination caused by heavy metal pollutants in soil in Chunghua County of central Taiwan by using a finite mixture distribution model (FMDM). The probabilities of contaminated area distribution are mapped using single-variable indicator kriging and multiple-variable indicator kriging (MVIK) with the FMDM cut-off values and regulation thresholds for heavy metals. FMDM results indicate that Cr, Cu, Ni and Zn can be individually fitted by a mixture model representing the background and contamination distributions of the four metals in soil. The FMDM cut-off values for contamination caused by the metals are close to the regulation thresholds, except for the cut-off value of Zn. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve validates that indicator kriging and MVIK with FMDM cut-off values can reliably delineate heavy metals contamination, particularly for areas lacking background information and high heavy metal concentrations in soil.     

Dynamic Tracking and Comprehensive Evaluation on the Natural Resources Security Elements and System in China

System theory,pressure-state-response and drivingpressure-state-impact-response model have been applied to establishing China's dynamic tracking evaluation system of natural resources security in this article.Based on analytic hierarchy process and Delphi methods,the natural resources security situation has been evaluated systematically from 1991 to 2007.The result showed that the overall level of China's natural resources security presented a downtrend from 1991 to 2007.The basic reasons are the pressure indicators such as population,GDP,natural resources trade increased gradually,resulting in tension and fragility of natural resources security.     

Development and field validation of an indicator to assess the relative mobility and risk of pesticides in the Lourens River catchment,South Africa

A GIS based pesticide risk indicator that integrates exposure variables (i.e. pesticide application, geographic, physicochemical and crop data) and toxicity endpoints (using species sensitivity distributions) was developed to estimate the Predicted Relative Exposure (PREX) and Predicted Relative Risk (PRRI) of applied pesticides to aquatic ecosystem health in the Lourens River catchment, Western Cape, South Africa. Samples were collected weekly at five sites from the beginning of the spraying season (October) till the beginning of the rainy season (April) and were semi quantitatively analysed for relevant pesticides applied according to the local farmers spraying programme. Monitoring data indicate that physicochemical data obtained from international databases are reliable indicators of pesticide behaviour in the Western Cape of South Africa. Sensitivity analysis identified K_OC as the most important parameter influencing predictions of pesticide loading derived from runoff. A comparison to monitoring data showed that the PREX successfully identified hotspot sites, gave a reasonable estimation of the relative contamination potential of different pesticides at a site and identified important routes of exposure (i.e. runoff or spray drift) of different pesticides at different sites. All pesticides detected during a monitored runoff event, were indicated as being more associated with runoff than spray drift by the PREX. The PRRI identified azinphos-methyl and chlorpyrifos as high risk pesticides towards the aquatic ecosystem. These results contribute to providing increased confidence in the use of risk indicator applications and, in particular, could lead to improved utilisation of limited resources for monitoring and management in resource constrained countries.     

人工湿地基质的筛选及其对猪场废水厌氧消化液中氨氮吸附性能研究

采用静态吸附实验,对比了岷江砂、沱江砂、青衣江砂、沸石、活性炭对猪场废水厌氧消化液中氨氮的吸附去除效率,基于氨氮去除能力、购买成本与运费的比较,筛选出性价比较高的基质--岷江砂作为四川地区人工湿地的基质处理猪场废水厌氧消化液.吸附实验表明,砂对氨氮的去除率随振荡时间和投加量的增加而增加.通过吸附等温曲线Langmuir...