生态系统服务价值与人类活动强度关联性分析及权衡——以淇河流域为例

以淇河流域为研究对象，利用2000~2015年土地利用/覆被数据，结合当量因子法修正中国陆地不同生态系统服务价值当量表，采用双变量相关分析法和生态系统服务权衡模型分析生态系统服务权衡协同关系，引入人类活动强度指数评估模型分析人类活动影响空间特征，运用空间自相关探讨人类活动影响与生态系统服务价值的空间关联性及LISA聚类分析.结果表明：（1）2000~2015年淇河流域生态系统服务价值呈下降趋势，2010年生态系统服务最低（19.29亿元），废物处理平均价值最大（3.68亿元），娱乐文化平均价值最小（0.81亿元）；（2）从生态系统权衡协同关系来看，两种相关性分析均表明研究区生态系统服务以协同关系为主，由线性关系发现供给服务、调节服务与支持服务呈现为互为增益的协同关系，文化服务与支持服务、供给服务、调节服务分别表现为此消彼长的权衡关系，生态系统服务权衡协同度表明土壤保持和原材料及土壤保持和生物多样性协同度最高（4.4），权衡度最高（-5.2）为水源涵养和原材料、水源涵养和生物多样性；（3）淇河流域人类活动强度空间分异显著，流域下游人类活动影响强度明显高于上游地区，人类活动强度与生态系统服务价值空间相关性由正相关转向负相关.     

Fuzzy modelling to identify key drivers of ecological water quality to support decision and policy making

Water quality modelling is an effective tool to investigate, describe and predict the ecological state of an aquatic ecosystem. Various environmental variables may simultaneously affect water quality. Appropriate selection of a limited number of key-variables facilitates cost-effective management of water resources. This paper aims to determine (and analyse the effect of) the major environmental variables predicting ecological water quality through the application of fuzzy models. In this study, a fuzzy logic methodology, previously applied to predict species distributions, was extended to model environmental effects on a whole community. In a second step, the developed models were applied in a more general water management context to support decision and policy making. A hill-climbing optimisation algorithm was applied to relate ecological water quality and environmental variables to the community indicator. The optimal model was selected based on the predictive performance (Cohen’s Kappa), ecological relevance and model’s interpretability. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was performed as an extra element to analyse and evaluate the optimal model. The optimal model included the variables land use, chlorophyll and flow velocity. The variable selection method and sensitivity analysis indicated that land use influences ecological water quality the most and that it affects the effect of other variables on water quality to a high extent. The model outcome can support spatial planning related to land use in river basins and policy making related to flows and water quality standards. Fuzzy models are transparent to a wide range of users and therefore may stimulate communication between modellers, river managers, policy makers and stakeholders.     

枯季乌江河流“呼吸”作用及其性质探讨

发源于云贵高原上的乌江是长江流域的重要支流之一。乌江流域喀斯特地貌广泛发育，是中国南方典型的喀斯特河流。以枯水季节乌江流域水体中的实测温度、溶解氧、碱度和pH值等理化参数为依据，探讨了乌江流域河道水体的CO2分压(〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗CO2)与河流“呼吸”通量的变化规律。乌江流域枯水季节河道水体〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗CO2介于2913~1 530 μatm之间，平均值为9493 μatm，约为大气的3倍，各支流样点的平均值为9924 μatm，大于干流平均值9026 μatm，由此推断乌江流域干支流河道在枯季是大气CO2的“源”。受各游段流域特征以及人类活动的影响，干支流河道水体〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗CO2表现出明显的空间差异。水体〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗CO2与溶解氧的相关关系不显著，说明河道内有机质的异养呼吸不是喀斯特乌江流域枯季水体中溶解无机碳的主要来源，其河道水体中高〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗CO2成因复杂。〖WTBX〗P〖WTBZ〗CO2的上述分布规律是流域支流汇入、地下水以及河道水体有机质氧化分解等共同作用的结果。     

黄河下游历史泥沙灾害的宏观特征及其与流域因素及人类活动的关系(Ⅰ)──历史气候及植被因素的影响

以历史上黄河下游的决溢频率为泥沙灾害的代用指标；研究了黄河下游历史泥沙灾害的宏观特征．研 究表明，气候因素对黄河下游决溢频率有深远的影响．隋唐以前，天然植被尚未遭到显著破坏，当湿润指标 增大时，有利于植被的生长，故黄河下游决溢频率减小．１０世纪以后，二者的关系与此相反，当湿润指标增 大时，决溢频率也增大，反之亦然．每世纪大旱年颁次与每世纪决溢频次之间呈明显正相关，说明目前受到 各方面广泛关注的黄河下游“小水大灾”现象，在历史上已经存在．干旱时期中，河槽萎缩，一旦大水来 临，很容易发生决溢．以华山松树木年轮指数为气温的代用指标，研究了气温变化与决溢频率变化的关系， 结果表明，在５０ａ的尺度上，当气温降低时，决溢频率增大，反之亦然．人类活动是影响黄河下游泥沙灾害 的重要因素．     

ANALYSIS OF POND SEEPAGE FOR APPLICATION IN FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this research was to examine through modeling and experimentation if seepage out of a pond through stratified soil can be predicted, and effectively collected and managed to augment streamflow during a low precipitation period extending three months or more. The 55 m² experimental pond with sandy/loamy banks was excavated to hardpan, and its bottom was approximately 0.7 above the water table. Output from a mathematical model containing both bottom and bank seepage elements agreed with experimental data, and showed that as compared to bottom seepage, the bank seepage contributed approximately 25 percent of the total seepage. Seepage collection (as measured from a circumscribing ditch) linearly varied with stage (r² < 0.99). There was an 8 to 22 percent over‐collection at the lower pond stages, and a 9 to 45 percent under‐collection at the highest stage. As an example of its utility, the model was applied to estimate the pond size and shape needed to supply a hypothetical stream and maintain fish stocks during a three‐month low‐precipitation period. Future work will focus on nutrient transport and removal.     

拉伸型渭河盆地地震孕育发生的构造模型

依据拉伸型渭河盆地块体周边断裂活动特征和块体运动特征,建立了盆地地震孕育发生的构造模型,旨在探索地震孕育发生的机制,为研究类似盆地地震孕育、发生及其分布规律和地震监测预报、震灾防御等各项防震减灾工作部署提供科学依据。     

Impact of Residential Soil Disturbance on Infiltration Rate and Stormwater Runoff1

Woltemade, Christopher J., 2010. Impact of Residential Soil Disturbance on Infiltration Rate and Stormwater Runoff. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(4): 700-711. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00442.x Abstract: Soil disturbances such as excavation and compaction in residential developments affect lawn infiltration rates and stormwater runoff. These effects were investigated via measuring saturated infiltration rates at 108 residential sites and 18 agricultural sites near Shippensburg, south-central Pennsylvania, using a double-ring infiltrometer. Residential sites included four neighborhoods distributed across three soil series classified as hydrologic soil group (HSG) B. Additional parcel data included date of house construction, percentage impervious area, lawn condition, and woody vegetation condition. Measured infiltration rates ranged from 0 to >40 cm/hour. Analysis of variance indicated significantly different mean infiltration rates (p < 0.001) for lots constructed pre-2000 (9.0 cm/hour) and those constructed post-2000 (2.8 cm/hour). Test results were used to determine a “field-tested” HSG for each site, representing disturbed soil conditions. Stormwater runoff was estimated from residential lots for a range of 24-hour design storms using the TR-55 model and several alternative methods of determining curve numbers, including five different representations of soil conditions. Curve numbers and stormwater runoff were substantially higher when based on field-tested HSGs for lots constructed post-2000 compared with lots built pre-2000 and when based on the HSG for undisturbed soils, documenting the magnitude of possible error in stormwater runoff models that neglect soil disturbance.     

REGIONAL RUNOFF SIMULATION FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN1

ABSTRACT: The feasibility of simulating monthly runoff for southeast Michigan, which comprises four major river basins, was evaluated with the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation watershed model. The evaluation covered a 13-year period (1961–73), which encompassed a complete runoff cycle. Results indicate it is feasible to simulate monthly runoff volumes on a regional scale with a single equivalent watershed by using daily precipitation and temperature data. Simulation of regional flows appears particularly attractive for the Great Lakes basin, since the basin consists of many relatively small watersheds. This method also appears promising for development of monthly runoff forecasts by employing average monthly meteorological data distributed on a daily basis. Tests of six-month runoff forecasts show relatively small deterioration with time and offer considerable improvement over climatology.     

ARE RIVER BASINS THE BEST FRAMEWORK FOR WATER RESOURCES PLANNING,DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT?

The author cites many discrepancies in using river basins as a framework for water resources planning, development, and management. He suggests that a national planning framework, an urban region framework, or increased attention to regional externalities might be viable. However, basically the author is seeking to elicit suggestions and recommendations from the readers.     

化学气相渗透法制备碳化硅界面涂层的沉积动力学研究

目的 研究沉积温度对SiC界面涂层微观形貌、结构和成分的影响,探讨SiC界面涂层的沉积动力学和沉积机理.方法 采用Factsage软件计算MTS-H2反应物体系热力学平衡后产物组成,采用化学气相渗透法(CVI)在碳化硅纤维上制备SiC界面涂层,采用SEM、TEM、XRD等分析测试技术对SiC涂层形貌、结构和成分进行分析.结果 在860～1060℃温度范围内,MTS-H2体系平衡后的主要产物有SiC、C等,并在该温度范围采用CVI工艺制备出了SiC界面涂层.结论 在860～1060℃温度范围内,提高沉积温度有利于增加SiC的产率.温度低于960℃时,制备的SiC界面涂层表面光滑;高于1060℃时,得到了表面具有团簇结构的涂层,并且随着沉积温度的升高,涂层的结晶度提高.沉积动力学计算结果表明,温度低于1060℃时,SiC的沉积过程受表面反应控制;温度高于1060℃时,沉积过程受扩散控制.采用CVI工艺制备出了单一立方相的SiC界面涂层,并且(111)晶面为SiC颗粒的优先生长晶面.