利用信息扩散模式对安徽及华东地区地震的风险分析

本文利用信息扩散模式,分别从年地震频次和年最大震级两个方面对安徽及华东地区的地震风险进行评估.结果显示:安徽地区ML≥3.0地震,年频次4次以上,约两年一遇;年发生ML≥3.9地震,则3年可能遇一次.而华东地区ML≥4.0地震,年频次4次以上,大约3年一遇;年发生ML≥4.9的地震,则可能2年遇一次.     

自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向

由于自然灾害系统的复杂性及数据资料的不完备性,人们不可能精确估计任何自然灾害发生的概率,"概率值估不准"是现有超越概率风险区划图的致命弱点.简要回顾了针对这一问题已进行的提高估计精度和进行模糊风险计算的有关研究,并将模糊风险研究引入风险区划图的编制,给出了自然灾害软风险区划图的定义和一个初步的样式.讨论了这种风险图在体现风险值估不准方面,以及在为用户提供更多风险信息,为决策者提供调整余地等方面的优点.研究结果表明,软风险区划图是自然灾害风险区划图的一个潜在发展方向.为推进这一研究领域的发展,对今后的工作提出了一些建议.     

信息不对称下的金融风险机理研究

利用信息不对称理论对市场交易中的道德风险和逆向选择进行了解释。对国家同商业银行及中介机构的信息不对称,商业银行同工商企业的信息不对称,国家金融机构信息获取方面存在的困难的原因进行了分析。研究了由于信息不对称利率、汇率、管理及决策在金融行业的风险,以及操作过程中,贷款对象选择,对中小企业贷款的风险。只要充分重视金融风险,采取得当的防范对策,风险是可以防范的。     

重大危险源辨识与监控是企业建立事故应急体系的基础

本文简要介绍了重大工业事故预防控制体系要素和国家法律、法规与政策对企业重大危险源监控与应急体系建设的要求,论述了重大危险源辨识、监控是企业建立事故应急体系和重大事故预防控制体系的基础和前提,对企业重大危险源监控和应急预案编制要求提出了建议.     

数字消防--消防信息化的开放模式

针对当前消防信息化建设中存在的开放性不足的问题,提出了一种开放的建设模式--数字消防.在探讨数字消防的性质和特点的基础上,对我国数字消防的功能需求进行了系统分析,并对实践中出现的"由总队主导的数字消防模式"和"由民防主导的数字消防模式"进行了探讨分析.最后,针对需要进一步解决的问题提出了相应的建议.     

基于GIS技术的海塘防洪减灾信息系统

海塘工程的规划、设计、建设、维护和管理,对沿海省份经济发展和人民生命财产的安全十分重要,历来受到政府和沿海居民的高度重视.介绍了基于GIS技术的海塘防洪减灾信息系统的主要功能及逻辑结构,分析了海塘数据库的特点,详细讨论了海塘属性和空间数据库的建库内容及方法.最后通过应用实例,验证了系统技术路线的合理性、正确性和实用性.     

我国油气企业环境会计核算及信息披露的探讨

在国民经济中占有主导地位的油气企业同时也是造成环境污染的主体之一。因此,建立油气企业环境会计制度有极其重要的现实意义。文章针对我国油气企业环境会计制度应用现状,运用环境会计基本理论,对企业环境会计核算方法及信息传播模式进行了探讨,以期为油气企业环境会计制度的实施提供一些理论依据和具体方法,推动油气企业环境会计制度的发展。     

Class: an Essential Aspect of Watershed Planning

A study of a watershed planning process in the Cache River Watershed in southern Illinois revealed that class divisions, based on property ownership, underlay key conflicts over land use and decision-making relevant to resource use. A class analysis of the region indicates that the planning process served to endorse and solidify the locally-dominant theory that landownership confers the right to govern. This obscured the class differences between large full-time farmers and small-holders whose livelihood depends on non-farm labor. These two groups generally opposed one another regarding wetland drainage. Their common identity as “property owner” consolidated the power wielded locally by large farmers. It also provided an instrument – the planning document – for state and federal government agencies to enhance their power and to bring resources to the region. The planning process simultaneously ameliorated conflicts between government agencies and the large farmers, while enhancing the agencies’ capacity to reclaim wetlands. In this contradictory manner, the plan promoted the environmental aims of many small-holders, and simultaneously disempowered them as actors in the region’s political economy. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Improving Operational Planning and Management of National Parks in Turkey: A Case Study

The purpose this study was to improve operational planning and management of national parks in Turkey to balance conservation use and sustainable management. Souksu National Park (SNP) was chosen as the study area. The data were obtained from interviews of 182 visitor groups (in total, 819 people) and analyzed using correlation, factor, discriminant, and regression analyses. It was found that the most important factors affecting operational planning and management of SNP are (1) travel cost, (2) visitor welfare level, (3) intensity of use, (4) size of visitor group, (5) type of recreational demand. The main source of visitors to SNP is from a zone within a 0–90-km radius. This region comprised 53.85% of total visitors to the park. The capital of Turkey (Ankara) is the most important source of visitors from within this zone. The optimum activity mix in SNP is also determined. Picnicking, viewing the scenery, and nature walks or trekking comprised the main uses of the park. It is anticipated that these findings will help to improve operational planning and sustainable management of the national park and the environment.     

Quantifying and Evaluating Ecosystem Health: A Case Study from Moreton Bay, Australia

As part of the program monitoring the ecosystem health of Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia, we developed a means for assessing ecosystem health that allows quantitative evaluation and spatial representations of the assessments. The management objectives for achieving ecosystem health were grouped into ecosystem objectives, water quality objectives, and human health objectives. For the first two groups, aspects of the ecosystem (e.g., trophic status) were identified, and an indicator was chosen for each aspect. Reference values for each indicator were derived from management objectives and compared with the mapped survey values. Subregions for which the indicator statistic was equal to or better than the assigned reference value are referred to as “compliant zones.” High-resolution surface maps were created from spatial predictions on a fine hexagonal grid for each of the indicators. Eight reporting subregions were established based on the depth and predicted residence times of the water. Within each reporting subregion, the proportion that was compliant was calculated. These results then were averaged to create an integrated ecosystem health index. The ratings by a team of ecosystem experts and the calculated ecosystem health indices had good correspondence, providing assurance that the approach was internally consistent, and that the management objectives covered the relevant biologic issues for the region. This method of calculating and mapping ecosystem health, relating it directly to management objectives, may have widespread applicability for ecosystem assessment.