塔城地区的干旱因素探讨

通过对塔城地区自然情况及水利设施建设方面的介绍及分析，总结了影响干旱的一些因素，并提出了相应的对策和建议，以减缓塔城地区的干旱问题。     

景观规划创意与生态旅游的结合--转山湖水库风景区概念性规划简介

本文结合生态旅游讨论一个水库风景区的景观规划创意,从生态规划角度对人与环境的共生主题进行探讨,突出水域生态资源与环境保护可持续发展这一中心,提倡规划项目与时代需要的深入结合,并在具体规划中关注人与环境的共生性问题。     

地理信息系统Metadata共享和安全

地理信息系统 (GIS)的核心是数据 ,数据的共享及其安全是GIS技术的关键 ,特别是GIS网络 ,而元数据 (Metadata)机制提供了有效的方法。笔者介绍了Metadata及其共享和安全的重要性 ,并对ArcSDE安全机制与Metadata共享及安全实施进行了分析 ,探讨基于GIS软件技术的Metadata共享和安全技术的可行性     

Assessing the current state of ecological connectivity in a large marine protected area system

The establishment of marine protected areas (MPAs) is a critical step in ensuring the continued persistence of marine biodiversity. Although the area protected in MPAs is growing, the movement of individuals (or larvae) among MPAs, termed connectivity, has only recently been included as an objective of many MPAs. As such, assessing connectivity is often neglected or oversimplified in the planning process. For promoting population persistence, it is important to ensure that protected areas in a system are functionally connected through dispersal or adult movement. We devised a multi-species model of larval dispersal for the Australian marine environment to evaluate how much local scale connectivity is protected in MPAs and determine whether the extensive system of MPAs truly functions as a network. We focused on non-migratory species with simplified larval behaviors (i.e., passive larval dispersal) (e.g., no explicit vertical migration) as an illustration. Of all the MPAs analyzed (approximately 2.7 million km²), outside the Great Barrier Reef and Ningaloo Reef, <50% of MPAs (46-80% of total MPA area depending on the species considered) were functionally connected. Our results suggest that Australia's MPA system cannot be referred to as a single network, but rather a collection of numerous smaller networks delineated by natural breaks in the connectivity of reef habitat. Depending on the dispersal capacity of the taxa of interest, there may be between 25 and 47 individual ecological networks distributed across the Australian marine environment. The need to first assess the underlying natural connectivity of a study system prior to implementing new MPAs represents a key research priority for strategically enlarging MPA networks. Our findings highlight the benefits of integrating multi-species connectivity into conservation planning to identify opportunities to better incorporate connectivity into the design of MPA systems and thus to increase their capacity to support long-term, sustainable biodiversity outcomes.     

后疫情时期全国碳市场政策对经济和排放的影响

新冠肺炎疫情暴发一年多以来,国际国内形势仍面临极大不确定性。疫情显著降低了短期排放水平,但是经济恢复政策和疫情发展形势的不确定使得对未来经济发展和碳排放的判断变得复杂,碳排放是否会反弹对实现《巴黎协定》目标造成挑战,已经投入运行的全国碳市场能多大程度发挥政策效果等问题值得关注。本文首先定量评估了疫情对经济和环境的短期和长期的影响,基于此分析疫情后全国碳市场政策的实施效果。结果显示:疫情造成中国经济活动以及碳排放短期显著下降,2020年中国全年的GDP增长较基准情景下降3.84%,能源消费和碳排放分别较基准情景下降4.47%和5.12%。但是,接下来的十年内,GDP会逐渐恢复至基准情景,累计碳排放较基准情景增加0.06%。在没有其他气候政策干预的情况下,疫情带来的短期减排效应不足以保障中国各项气候目标的实现,落实碳市场政策十分必要。疫情之后启动全国碳市场,可以促进投资、减少能源使用和碳排放,到2030年,能源消费将下降7.44%,碳排放下降10.49%,碳价为229.73元/t。国外疫情若在2021年还不能得到控制,将会继续影响中国的对外贸易,使得中国GDP损失略有提高,但不会改变国内疫情之后经济恢复的大趋势。     

资源环境承载力研究方法综述

资源环境承载力是区域发展战略决策的基础,对指导区域可持续发展和服务国家战略需求具有重要意义。本文系统梳理了资源环境承载力评价从土地资源承载力向水资源承载力、环境承载力和生态承载力发展,再到近年来以土地开发强度为特征,以及基于供给能力的资源环境承载力评价兴起的历程。资源环境承载力评价从单一资源走向各类主要自然资源、环境要素及综合要素的承载力评价,研究方法不断完善。但目前资源环境承载力研究仍存在更多地关注承载的极限容量,对发展容量的关注不足;缺乏具有普适性、可推广的资源环境承载力评价理论及方法体系等问题,其研究仍面临严峻的挑战。未来资源环境承载力研究仍需在承载力从极限容量向发展容量转变,形成具有广泛指导意义的资源环境承载力评价方法体系,强化以空间开发利用为特征的资源环境承载力评价等方面的研究,以此深化资源环境承载力理论及实践应用研究,为区域可持续发展及服务国家战略提供支撑。     

基于MDI综合赋权的军航空管模糊物元安全评价

为了保证军航空管系统的运行安全,防患于未然,根据模糊物元分析理论,结合军航空管系统安全评价指标体系,提出了基于综合赋权的军航空管系统模糊物元安全评价模型。在该模型中,引入最小鉴别信息(MDI)原理对层次分析法和熵值法所确定的权重进行组合,实现评价指标的综合赋权,进而将计算得到的综合权重用于模糊物元建模及评价。实例分析结果表明,该模型步骤简单,过程科学合理,并兼顾了主客观因素的影响,评价结果总体反映了军航空管系统的真实安全水平,也为军航空管安全的科学评价提供了新思路。     

基于Web的油气集输联合站变更管理信息系统设计与实现

为了完善采油厂实现油气集输联合站变更管理的信息化,减少变更活动中人工操作的工作量。提出了基于Web的变更管理系统架构方案,并运用Java技术及SQL数据库技术研发出变更管理信息系统。系统能够实现变更申请审批、变更风险评估、变更现场监督、变更历史记录查询以及变更作业票管理等功能,并在某油田多个油气集输联合站得到应用。应用结果表明,基于Web的变更管理系统具有较好的现场应用性,能够切实提高联合站变更管理的效率,有效地发挥变更管理在规章制度更新、过程工艺改进以及工作场所变化等方面的优势,从而通过进一步完善联合站安全管理体系,最终为企业安全生产提供工具化支持。     

数字化控制系统信息显示特征对操纵员信息 捕获绩效的影响及优化研究

随着计算机技术和仪控技术的发展,数字化仪控系统逐步在大型控制室得到应用,主控室信息界面随之也出现了 “巨量信息与有限显示”的矛盾。通过分析数字化主控室信息显示的特点,基于认知心理学的相关理论,通过实验研究 信息显示率、信息提供率、数据更新率对操纵员信息捕获绩效的影响。实验结果表明:对操纵员信息捕获绩效影响最主 要的因素是信息显示率,其次是信息提供率,最后是数据更新率;信息显示率与信息提供率对被试信息捕获绩效的影响 具有较高的灵敏度,而数据更新率的变化对被试信息捕获绩效的影响并不显著;信息显示的最佳匹配组合是信息显示率 为56.4 bit,信息提供率为9.4 bit,数据更新率为3 s。研究成果可为数字化主控室信息显示的设计提供理论基础。     

Bibliometric analysis of ecosystem monitoring-related research in Africa: implications for ecological stewardship and scientific collaboration

Regional ecosystem monitoring is a central form of knowledge sharing and collaboration amongst scientists and decision makers on environmental health, land use change, and science-policy development. Despite the proliferation of such research networks on long-term monitoring on many continents, little has been achieved in Africa. This study aims to assess and examine the spatiotemporal trend and categorical patterns in ecosystem monitoring-related research in Africa for the benefits of conserving biodiversity and sustaining natural resource sectors for well-being and livelihood security, environmental planning, and ecological stewardship. A systematic review was conducted using bibliometric tools. Based on a set of search terms and peer-reviewed publications retrieved from various ecosystem monitoring networks and journal databases, further analysis was conducted using social network approaches, mapping tools, and content analysis. About 1442 scientific publications on ecosystem monitoring and related research were documented from 1987 to 2014 mostly published in English. The number of publication increased progressively since 1992 after the Convention on Biodiversity was signed and this trend peaked till 2008. South African Journal of Science was the most leading journal and Nature the most cited. Internationally coauthored and collaborative articles represented majority of the findings with the United Kingdom at the central position in the research network due to colonial relationships. Regional collaboration amongst countries is limited owing to language barriers and other institutional constraints such as funding and short-term projects. These findings have implication for prioritizing national and regional policies toward biodiversity science and its contribution to human well-being, food security, and global change responses.