基于过程的农户土地利用行为模型的设计与模拟研究

通过基于过程的方式来研究农户决策行为已经成为学者们关注的焦点问题之一。论文依据Belief、Desire、Intention（BDI）决策框架,设计基于过程的农户土地利用行为决策模型。模型以农户实际决策而非效益最大化作为行为模拟的假设,对陕西省米脂县高渠乡的典型村落马蹄洼和姜兴庄土地利用变化进行模拟。模拟可以再现农户决策的动态性和反馈性,展示农户学习行为的过程及其影响,揭示农户决策变化的内在机理。利用该模型,对3 种情景下农户土地利用行为进行模拟,对比分析3 种情景的优劣,指出政府未来应当在降低市场风险、规范合作社经营、提高市场预测方面多做工作。文章最后对该种方法的优点和不足进行总结,并指出今后需要加强的方向。     

畜禽养殖排放的雌激素对周边水体环境的影响

环境雌激素是一大类化学物质,它们能够干扰生物体内激素的合成、分泌、转运、活性等,或与生物体内激素结构相似而发挥激素作用,对生物体的生长、繁殖及行为产生不利影响。环境雌激素包括天然雌激素及人工合成类雌激素。随着国内畜禽养殖的规模与数量的不断扩大,养殖场成为了一个很大的环境雌激素的产生源,其环境风险应得到相应的重视。目前对畜禽养殖过程中环境雌激素的产生量以及雌激素进入环境后的迁移转化行为已有很多的研究,包括野外的调查与实验室内机理研究。畜禽养殖过程产生的大量雌激素进入环境后能够被土壤吸附及微生物降解。室内的静态平衡吸附实验、土柱迁移试验及降解研究均表明雌激素进入环境后绝大部分迅速被吸附到土壤颗粒或悬浮胶体、沉积物颗粒上,同时发生转化与生物降解,由此推断其对周边环境中的雌激素贡献很小。然而,野外调查结果却表明实际情况下雌激素的迁移性高于理论期望值。因此,畜禽养殖对周边环境中雌激素的贡献量的大小尚未明确。本论文综述了畜禽养殖过程中环境雌激素的排放情况,结合国内外的调查研究,阐述了畜禽养殖产生的环境雌激素在土壤及水体中的迁移与降解行为,探讨了影响准确评估畜禽养殖排泄物对周边水体中雌激素贡献大小的因子,并提出了今后应开展原位吸附与迁移的实验,重点考虑天然有机质及抗生素等共存物质对雌激素环境行为的影响,建立综合模型来估算不同时期养殖场对周围水环境雌激素的贡献量的建议。     

我国典型农区耕地承载畜禽容量对比分析

根据农田养分平衡理论,对我国南北两个县级区域山东禹城和湖南桃源的耕地承载畜禽容量和负载指数进行了对比分析。 基于农田N收支情景分析表明:当农田施用粪便N分别占到总投入N的30%、60%和100%时,山东禹城耕地承载畜禽容量分别为4.1、8.3和13.8 LU·hm^-2,相应负载指数分别是2.2、1.1和0.7,湖南桃源耕地承载畜禽容量分别是4.4、8.7和14.6 LU·hm^-2,相应负载指数分别是1.4、0.7和0.4;基于农田N收支的耕地畜禽容量呈现为禹城略低于桃源,负载指数呈现为禹城显著高于桃源。基于农田P收支情景分析表明:当农田施用粪便P₂O₅分别占总施入P₂O₅的30%、60%和100%时,山东禹城耕地承载畜禽容量分别为6.7、13.5和22.5 LU·hm^-2,相应的耕地畜禽承载指数分别是1.3、0.7和0.4,湖南桃源耕地承载畜禽容量分别是2.5、5.1和8.5 LU·hm^-2,相应的负载指数分别是2.4、1.2和0.7,基于农田P收支的耕地畜禽容量呈现为禹城显著高于桃源,负载指数为禹城低于桃源。可见,禹城基于农田N收支的耕地承载畜禽容量显著低于基于农田P收支的耕地承载畜禽容量,桃源正好与禹城相反。因此,今后在制定减少农田环境污染对策时,禹城应首先考虑农田N收支及粪便N的有效管理与利用;桃源则应首先考虑农田P收支及粪便P的有效管理与利用,并且因为区域内乡镇之间存在较大差异,还应在乡镇之间进行协调平衡。     

Sediment organic matter and meiofauna community response to long-term fish-farm impact in the Ligurian Sea (Western Mediterranean)

Quantitative and qualitative changes in meiofauna community structure were investigated to assess the impact of a fish farm, which was operating continuously for 15 years (La Spezia Gulf, W Mediterranean). Sediment samples were collected in June, July, September, October 2000 and February 2001 for the analysis of phytopigments (chlorophyll-a and phaeopigments), the biochemical composition of organic matter (proteins, carbohydrates and lipids) and related to meiofaunal parameters.

Sediment organic matter reached extremely high concentrations beneath the fish cages when compared to the control. Particularly lipids, carbohydrates and chlorophyll-a were significantly higher in fish-farm sediments. On a long-term basis meiofauna displayed adaptations in sediments beneath the cages resulting in an increase of density. Organic impact on meiofaunal community structure was evident in terms of an increase of the nematodes to copepods (Ne/Co) and nauplius to copepods (Na/Co) ratios in fish farm sediments. Cumaceans and kinorhynchs were encountered in control sediments, but disappeared in fish-farm samples. These data suggest that meiofauna is a sensitive tool for evaluating the effects of organic enrichment in fish farm impacted areas.     

Evaluation of fodder quality of straw of different landraces of rice (Oryza sativa L.) under cultivation in the Kumaun Region of Indian Central Himalaya

Thirty landraces of rice collected from various locations, across an elevational gradient (1150–2400 m asl), in Kumaun, Central Himalaya and VL-206 (a high-yielding variety recommended for rainfed mountain area) have been evaluated, both in terms of quantity and nutritional quality of straw. Data were collected to estimate the percentage share of fodder in the overall biomass produced. The total biomass harvested at maturity was taken as productivity. In view of the severe scarcity of fodder in hill regions, particularly during winter months, straw was also examined for quality-linked biochemical parameters and dry matter digestibility (DMD) of fodder. The Crude Protein (CP) values ranged from 2.21% (Nandhani) to 6.33% (Dalbadal), and in saceo DMD (nylonbag technique) was highest in Kaladur (48.84%) and lowest in Kantolia (32.25%). While the CP in VL206 was within the range recorded for various landraces (3.61%), DMD value (27.29%) was lower than that of all the landraces tested. In saceo DMD data indicate that the fodder quality of landraces is better than that of the introduced variety. The values for neutral detergent fibre (NDF) ranged from 63.64% (Sabhawati) to 78.46% (Chhotiya) among the rainfed landraces, while in the irrigated landraces, Thapchini had more NDF (87.50 %), as compared to Kantolia (73.88%) and VL206 (74.91%). Values for the acid detergent fibre (ADF) varied from 42.70% (Danbasmati) to 54.58% (Nandhani) in the rainfed group; ADF was slightly higher in Thapchini (49.41%) in comparison to Kantolia (47.19) and VL206 had the highest (56.80%) ADF content. The observed differences with respect to straw productivity, chemical composition and in saceo DMD in various landraces, even when grown under similar conditions at one place, clearly indicate the richness of the gene pool of rice being maintained, through cultivation, in the Kumaun hills. It may be mentioned that agriculture in the hills is biomass based, and livestock form an integral component of subsistence farming.     

Empirical analysis on the influence of the Shaanxi fruit industry on regional food security

As part of its development policy to relieve rural poverty in west China, the Chinese government has introduced measures such as agricultural tax exemptions, agricultural subsidies, and scientific, technological and restructuring improvements to agriculture. Following these actions, farmers’ incomes have increased greatly and the economy in poor areas of west China has seen rapid improvements. However, agricultural restructuring, infrastructure construction and ecological restoration projects have reduced the area of land under arable farming, restricting opportunities for increasing total grain yield. Regional food security is therefore threatened and an imbalance between economic development and food security is created. Shaanxi is a representative province in west China where agricultural restructuring has resulted in large areas of arable land being converted into orchards that produce higher economic returns. This study randomly surveyed 1430 farm households in three counties in the apple-producing region of Shaanxi Province (Luochuan, Changwu and Baishui). The standard of living and household income of farmers in the fruit production areas were higher than in grain-producing areas, thus discouraging grain production. Land under agriculture in the counties studied comprised 59% orchards and 39% arable, with 2% under other uses. Per capita, 204.3 kg of grain was produced, 51% of that required for self-sufficiency. Other staple foods produced amounted to only 13.9% of that needed for self-sufficiency. As a result, nearly half of the grain needed by the community was purchased from outside, resulting in very poor regional food security. Clearly, fruit production in this region seriously affects regional food security. Coordination of relationships between rural economic development and regional food security is key for sustainable development of the regional agriculture and economy of west China.     

高效液相色谱-荧光检测法同时测定畜禽粪便中4种磺胺类药物残留

建立了高效液相色谱-荧光检测法测定畜禽粪便中4种磺胺药物(磺胺甲基嘧啶(SM1)、磺胺氯哒嗪(SCP)、磺胺邻二甲氧嘧啶(SDM’)、磺胺喹噁啉(SQ))的方法.样品用25 mL甲醇提取3次,合并提取液,浓缩干燥,用0.1 mol.L-1的HCL溶解残渣,经荧光胺衍生化后,用反相C18柱为分离柱,以乙腈∶0.5%乙酸=40∶60(V/V)为流动相进行洗脱,20 min内分离4种药物.在0.05—5.00μg.mL-1范围内,4种磺胺类药物的峰面积与质量浓度的线性关系良好(R2≥0.999),SM1、SCP、SDM’、SQ的定量限(LOQ)分别为2.3、6.3、4.3和9.6μg.kg-1;添加水平为50、100、1000μg.kg-1时,SM1、SCP、SDM’、SQ的回收率分别为74.91%—81.82%、78.45%—91.43%和86.10%—92.88%,RSD小于8.82%.     

祁连县天然草地地上生物量及草畜平衡研究

论文利用2013—2014年的MOD13Q1数据、草地地上生物量鲜重实测数据、多年降水数据和统计年鉴数据,建立了祁连县草地地上生物量与牧草鲜重的遥感监测模型以及不同季节放牧草场的理论载畜量模型,分析了天然草地草产量年内动态变化与载畜量平衡状况并对草畜调控进行模拟。结果表明：MODIS增强型植被指数EVI的指数函数可以较好地模拟祁连县草地地上生物量鲜重,精度达到71%;年内牧草生长呈单峰曲线,7月草地可食产量达到峰值 2 322.61 kg/hm²,12月最低,为702.06 kg/hm²;祁连县冷暖季平均可食鲜草产量分别为1 728.14和1 604.70 kg/hm²,年可食鲜草总量分别达到7.74×10⁸和7.82×10⁸ kg;暖季、冷季和全年的理论载畜量分别为1.517 8、0.637 0和0.931 4羊单位/hm²,暖季、冷季和全年的超载率分别为101.70%、261.19%和149.22%;保持现有的家畜数量,需在暖季草场和冷季草场分别补饲牧草0.36×10⁸ 和7.17×10⁸ kg;保持现有草场,则暖季草场和冷季草场分别需要减6.68×10⁴和53.64×10⁴羊单位;暖季不进行补饲,冷季草场家畜在减少40%的情况下,依旧需要补饲1.17×10⁸ kg。     

2008年秋季珠江三角洲污染气象分析

利用2008年10月15日至11月20日珠江三角洲从化、广州、开平三地的加强观测资料,分析了加强观测期间珠江三角洲的污染气象特征.结果表明,观测期间,造成珠江三角洲空气污染的天气形势可分为冷锋前部型、高压底部型、高压脊控制型3类.冷锋前部型易造成珠江三角洲中部和东北部污染;高压底部型易造成珠江三角洲西南部污染;高压脊控制型易造成珠江三角洲局地性污染.珠江三角洲城市群污染与盛行东北风且日平均风速小于2m/s有密切关系,大部分时间珠江三角洲西南部出现污染,是由于污染物沿着主导风向输送并累积造成.     

抗生素抗性基因(ARGs)——一种新型环境污染物

抗生素的环境污染与生态毒性近年来引起了日益广泛的关注.水产养殖和畜牧业抗生素长期滥用的直接后果,很可能诱导动物体内抗生素抗性基因,经排泄后将对养殖区域及其周边环境造成潜在基因污染.抗性基因还极有可能在环境中传播、扩散.对公共健康和食品、饮用水安全构成威胁.为此,提出了将抗生素抗性基因作为一类新型环境污染物,对该类污染物在环境中的来源、潜在的传播途径以及国内外相关研究进展进行综述,指出了当前形势下我国开展环境中抗生素抗性基因污染研究的必要性,建议尽快从国家层面上系统进行抗生素抗性基因的环境污染机理与控制对策研究.