Methods to empirically estimate direct and indirect rebound effect of energy-saving technological changes in households

Energy efficiency policies have a special importance within carbon emission reduction policies to mitigate the climate change effects. However, potential reductions of energy consumption and, consequently, its resulting emissions, can be offset through the so called “rebound effect”. The concept of “rebound effect” refers to a set of mechanisms whereby the improvement of efficiency reduces the cost of the energy service and this results in the household energy consumption rising and totally or partially negating the reduction achieved by the energy efficiency improvement. This paper provides a methodology to estimate the static direct plus indirect rebound effect of energy efficiency improvements in the use of energy in households. It is based on the combination of econometric estimations of energy demand functions, re-spending modelling and generalised intput-output of energy modelling. It also provides estimations for Catalonia.     

加勒比松幼林追肥试验研究

加勒比松1a生幼林氮磷钾不同配比的追肥试验表明，追肥后6a，肥效都极显著；其中以第2a的效果最显著，最大树高、胸径、材积分别比不追肥增加39．1％～52．6％、45．4％～109．3％和34．1％～405．6％；6a后肥效下降，但追肥仍比不追肥的树高、胸径、材积增长8．7％～20％、10．9％～17．9％、31．5％～54．7％。氮磷钾配合施用的效果最佳，施氮磷而缺钾有负效应。当氮磷钾相同配比（N30P30K30）时有特殊的低效应。     

Uncertainties in the assessment of “significant effect” on the Dutch Natura 2000 Wadden Sea site – The mussel seed fishery and powerboat race controversies

Natura 2000, the nature network based on the European Bird and Habitat Directives, is explicitly grounded on ecological science. To acquire a permit under the Dutch Nature Conservation Act, an appropriate assessment of significant effects must be conducted based on the best available scientific knowledge. In this way the scientific and policy world are directly linked. This article focuses on ‘significant effect’ as a boundary object to analyse how science–policy interactions shape the meaning and assessment of significant effect and how these interpretations influence the decision-making process. To this end, two conflicts over significant effect are investigated: the conflict over the 2006-spring permit for the mussel seed fishery, and the 2011 permit for the planned World Championship powerboat races. In both cases nature organisations started a court process against the government-granted permits in protest to the “no significant effect” claim, stating that there was insufficient certainty for this conclusion. These conflicts are approached as controversies between discourse coalitions with different interpretations of the ecological knowledge. We show how significant effect became a focal point in the controversies, limiting the debate to ecological arguments and science-based expertise, but also creating options for parties to advance their protest by articulating uncertainties. Only uncertainty of incomplete knowledge was explicitly addressed, excluding ambiguity of values and unpredictability of the actual ecosystem. We suggest that acknowledging the value aspect in disputes on significant effect would leave more space for effective solutions of the problems under debate.     

Modulation of predator-prey interactions by the Allee effect

An Allee effect arising from density-dependent mating success can have significant impacts at the ecosystem level when considered in the context of predator-prey interactions. These are captured by a mathematical model for the exchange of biomass between a structured predator population (continuous weight distribution) and a resource. Because the predator’s mating success affects the amount of resources required for the production of offsprings and their future growth into mature organisms, it influences the flux of biomass between trophic levels. Under simple assumptions, the equations can be reduced to an equivalent unstructured predator-prey model in which the Allee effect modulates the predation rate: the mating probability multiplies the rate of predator growth as well as the rate of resource depletion. Implications of the Allee effect for the bifurcation structure and equilibrium densities are examined. The model is compared to a modified version in which the Allee effect instead modulates the assimilation efficiency, hence the mating probability does not appear in the dynamical equation for the resource density. Both models exhibit qualitatively similar dynamics. However, compared to the model in which the Allee effect modulates predation, the model in which the Allee effect modulates assimilation efficiency predicts (i) unrealistically inefficient resource assimilation when predator density is low, (ii) a higher risk of catastrophic extinction resulting from a change in the parameter controlling the strength of the Allee effect, and (iii) no possibility of an increase in population size when the density dependence is enhanced.     

上海世博会旅游时空效应及对策研究

重大旅游事件会对举办地及其周边产生巨大的旅游效应,作为经济、科技奥运的上海世博会的旅游效应是广泛深远的.分析了上海世博会旅游效应研究现状,提出旅游时空效应结合研究的必要性,再分析其前期、期间和后期旅游时间效应,以及对上海和长三角的旅游空间效应,最后提出相应对策.     

中国二氧化硫污染的“稳健性”影响因素——基于空间面板数据EBA模型的实证分析

改革开放以来,中国的经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成就.然而,随着经济的快速增长,环境污染问题也日益凸显.本文采用2000—2012年中国30个省际的面板数据,利用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)理论检验二氧化硫(SO2)污染与经济增长的关系及其空间溢出效应,进而引入极值边界模型(EBA模型)实证检验SO2污染的"稳健性"影响因素.结果表明:我国各省域SO2污染与经济增长存在EKC曲线假设的倒"U"型关系,并具有空间溢出效应;第二产业就业人口比重、出口占GDP的比重、能源效率、化石能源比重、工业污染治理完成投资与SO2排放量呈正向"稳健性"关系,产业结构升级与SO2排放量呈负向"稳健性"关系.最后根据实证结论提出相应的政策建议,为政府制定相应的SO2减排政策提供经验证据和决策参考.     

火源功率对竖井负压控烟效果影响的实验研究

基于竖井的烟囱效应原理,利用小尺寸实验台开展了一系列实验,通过改变油盘的尺寸,对竖井内的烟气温度、压力、速度以及通风口处的压力、气流速度进行测量,研究了火源功率对房间利用竖井进行负压控烟效果的影响。实验结果表明:一方面随着火源功率的增大,室内温度升高,热烟气形成的热压增大,使烟气向外膨胀;另一方面,竖井底部的烟气温度升高,竖井底部的负压值增大,烟囱效应增强,排烟速度增大,新鲜空气补入的速度增大,逐渐抑制住烟气从通风口向外溢出,达到了负压控烟的效果。     

有机溶剂对过氧化环己酮热危险性的减敏效果评价

在纯过氧化环己酮(CYHPO)储运中常添加减敏剂,以降低其热危险性。为了对比评价减敏性能,采用绝热加速量热仪测试了纯CYHPO及加入等质量邻苯二甲酸二丁酯(DBP)、邻苯二甲酸二辛酯(DOP)、正己酸(HAA)和环己醇(CCH)后的热危险参数,并计算了上述5种样品的反应动力学常数和绝热校正数据,建立了包括初始放热温度T0和绝热反应加速度SARC的减敏效果判据,对4种减敏剂的热危险性减敏效果进行了评价。结果表明,DOP对CYHPO热危险性的减敏效果最好。     

A Bayesian network highlighting the linkages between landscape structure and the local economy: the case of agritourism in lowland areas of Northern Italy

Linking landscapes to socio-economic benefits necessarily requires considering the usability of landscape structure. To do so, however, depends on the interaction between users and producers of landscape-related services. We illustrate this interaction with a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) in a case study analysing the connection between residents' perceptions of landscape structure and agritourism restaurants in the eastern lowlands of Ferrara (Italy). We use estimates of prior and conditional probabilities from a mix of different data: land use, survey data, regional statistics, and expert judgements to show the likely effects of the landscape structure on the local economy by using intermediate forms of services (i.e. second-order services). The second-order service is highly influenced by the agritourism density and by the frequency with which customers dine at agritourism restaurants and less by landscape attractiveness, confirming the importance of the supply and demand of second-order services in the provision of landscape-related services.     

添加协效剂的灵石煤自燃阻化剂的研究

为了防止煤的自燃,采用双氧水氧化升温实验,对灵石肥煤在不同阻化剂下的阻化效果进行了研究。利用阻化时间变化率判定阻化效果。结果表明,添加氧化铝厂赤泥作为协效物质的协效阻化剂有效抑制了煤样的氧化升温,提高了阻化效果,阻化时间变化率达50.78%,为灵石肥煤最佳新型协效阻化剂。新型阻化剂原料廉价易得、反应条件温和、制备过程简单、环境友好,且实现了尾矿废渣的综合利用。