Effects of environment, vehicle and driver characteristics on risky driving behavior at work zones

This study aims to analyze the effects of environment, vehicle and driver characteristics on the risky driving behavior at work zones. A decision tree is developed using the classification and regression tree (CART) algorithm to graphically display the relationship between the risky driving behavior and its influencing factors. This approach could avoid the inherent problems occurred in the conventional logistic regression models and further improve the model prediction accuracy. Based on the Michigan M-94/I-94/I-94BL/I-94BR highway work zone driving behavior data, the decision tree comprising 33 leaf nodes is built. Bad weather, poor road and light conditions, partial/no access control, no traffic control devices, turning left/right and driving in an old vehicle are found to be associated with the risky driving behavior at work zones. The middle-aged drivers, who are going straight ahead in their vehicles with medium service time and equipped with an airbag system, are more likely to take risky behavior at lower work zone speed limits. Further, the middle-aged male drivers engage in risky driving behavior more frequently than the middle-aged female drivers. The number of lanes exhibits opposing effects on risky behavior under different traveling conditions. More specifically, the risky driving behavior is associated with the single-lane road under bad light or weather conditions while drivers are more likely to engage in risky behavior on the multi-lane road under good light conditions.     

极限平衡区顶煤自燃三维非均质动态数值模拟

为探究极限平衡区内顶煤自燃规律,利用Fluent软件对顶煤自燃进行数值模拟研究。通过对顶煤移动变形及自燃特点的分析,确定顶煤自燃过程的模拟为三维非均质动态模拟,并建立数学模型,给出相关参数及边界条件的确定方法。以恒大矿某工作面为例,对其顶煤的自燃过程进行数值模拟,并分析工作面风量及煤体耗氧速度与自然发火期之间的关系。结果表明:对计算区域进行模拟所得到的速度场、氧浓度场及温度场与现场观测结果及理论结果比较吻合;工作面风量对煤体自然发火期影响较小,而对高温区域中心点位置影响较大;煤体耗氧速率与自然发火期近似成负指数函数关系。     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">A Posteriori</Emphasis> Evaluation of Strategies of Management: The Effectiveness of No-Wash Zones in Minimizing the Impacts of Boat-Wash on Macrobenthic Infauna

Wind-driven waves are important in structuring intertidal and shallow subtidal assemblages of macrobenthic infauna. In the sheltered waters of estuaries, boat-generated waves (wash) may play a similar role because they are typically of a similar amplitude or larger than wind-driven waves. However, few studies have attempted to determine the role of wash in structuring assemblages. Consequently, strategies for managing boating focus around minimization of bank erosion. Along the Parramatta River (Sydney, Australia), no-wash zones have been established and mangroves planted to minimize the erosion of riverbanks and collapse of seawalls purportedly caused by 35-m-long RiverCat ferries. Although intended to also reduce the ecological impacts of wash, it is unclear whether these strategies achieve this goal. Unvegetated and vegetated (among the pneumatophores of mangroves) sediments were sampled in wash and no-wash zones along the Parramatta River to assess the effectiveness of no-wash zones and vegetation of river banks in reducing the ecological impacts of wash. Specifically, it was hypothesized that (1) assemblages of intertidal macrobenthic infauna would differ between wash and no-wash zones of the Parramatta River and (2) these differences would be greater in unvegetated than in vegetated habitat. As predicted, assemblages of macrobenthic infauna differed between the wash and no-wash zones. Capitellids, nereids, and spionids were more abundant in the no-wash zone. Contrary to the hypothesis, differences were no greater in the unvegetated habitat than in the vegetated habitat. The results suggest an impact of wash on assemblages of macrobenthic infauana and a role for no-wash zones in minimizing the effects of this disturbance.     

Hydrochemical Buffer Assessment in Agricultural Landscapes: From Local to Catchment Scale

Non-point-source pollution of surface and groundwater is a prominent environmental issue in rural catchments, with major consequences on water supply and aquatic ecosystem quality. Among surface-water protection measures, environmental or landscape management policies support the implementation and the management of buffer zones. Although a great number of studies have focused on buffer zones, quantification of the buffer effect is still a recurring question.The purpose of this article is a critical review of the assessment of buffer-zone functioning. Our objective is to provide land planners and managers with a set of variables to assess the limits and possibilities for quantifying buffer impact at the catchment scale. We first consider the scale of the local landscape feature. The most commonly used empirical method for assessing buffers is to calculate water/nutrient budgets from inflow–outflow monitoring at the level of landscape structures. We show that several other parameters apart from mean depletion of flux can be used to describe buffer functions. Such parameters include variability, with major implication for water management. We develop a theoretical framework to clarify the assessment of the buffer effect and propose a systematic analysis taking account of temporal variability. Second, we review the current assessment of buffer effects at the catchment scale according to the theoretical framework established at the local scale. Finally, we stress the limits of direct empirical assessment at the catchment scale and, in particular, we emphasize the hierarchy in hydrological processes involved at the catchment scale: The landscape feature function is constrained by other factors (climate and geology) that are of importance at a broader spatial and temporal scale.Published on line     

Probabilistic indicators of atmospheric transport for regional monitoring and emergency preparedness systems

In this paper, following a methodology developed within the "Arctic Risk" Project of the Nordic Arctic Research Programme, several probabilistic indicators to evaluate the risk site possible impact on the geographical regions, territories, countries, counties, cities, etc., due to atmospheric transport from the risk site region were suggested. These indicators-maximum possible impact zone, maximum reaching distance, and typical transport time-were constructed by applying statistical methods and using a dataset of isentropic trajectories originated over the selected nuclear risk site (Ignalina nuclear power plant, Lithuania) during 1991-1996. For this site, the areas enclosed by isolines of the maximum possible impact zone and maximum reaching distance indicators are equal to 42 x 10(4) and 703 x 10(4) km(2), respectively. The maximum possible impact zone's boundaries are more extended in the southeast sector from the site and include, in particular, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, and several western regions of Russia. The maximum reaching distance's boundaries are twice more extended in the eastern direction from the site (reaching the Caspian Sea) compared with the western direction. The typical transport time to reach the southern territories of Sweden and Finland, northern regions of Ukraine, and northeast of Poland is 1 day. During this time, the atmospheric transport could typically occur over the Baltic States, Belarus, and western border regions of Russia, and central aquatoria of the Baltic Sea. Detailed analysis of temporal patterns for these indicators showed importance of the seasonal variability.     

油罐火灾沸溢发生时间预测模型

油罐火灾发生沸溢具有很大的危险性,而沸溢时间的准确预测是目前的一个技术难题。笔者结合宽沸程油品油罐火灾沸溢实验,对油层内部传热过程进行详细分析,认为油罐火灾沸溢事故可近似地看作一无内热源、常物性的非稳态传热问题,其过程包含油水界面不参与换热和参与换热的两个阶段。建立了油罐火灾沸溢发生时间预测模型,对两个不同阶段,分别进行理论分析和数值方法进行求解,并同实验数据对比。结论可信,误差较小,为沸溢机理探讨研究和油罐沸溢火灾的扑救提供了参考依据。计算表明:燃烧速度和油罐底部水层厚度对沸溢时间的影响很大,而降低罐壁温度并不能有效地延迟沸溢的发生。     

马家沟矿煤与瓦斯动力现象机理研究

马家沟矿煤与瓦斯动力现象严重威胁着该矿的安全生产,掌握其机理意义重大。笔者在统计并分析该矿煤与瓦斯动力现象的基础上,以上山掘进和石门揭煤为例,根据煤与瓦斯动力现象发生后遗留的典型孔洞形状,采用RFPA-Flow对其进行数值模拟。通过数值模拟反演出了该矿动力现象发生的地质条件及过程,得出了马家沟矿煤与瓦斯动力现象机理,并通过数据处理,得出了在动力现象前后掘进头前方煤体内地应力、瓦斯压力分布状况及卸压区宽度变化规律。     

SUSPENDED SEDIMENT DYNAMICS IN SMALL FOREST STREAMS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST1

This paper reviews suspended sediment sources and transport in small forest streams in the Pacific Northwest region of North America, particularly in relation to riparian management. Mass movements, reading and yarding practices, and burning can increase the supply of suspended sediment. Sediment yields recovered to pre‐harvest levels within one to six years in several paired catchment studies. However, delayed mass movements related to roads and harvesting may produce elevated suspended sediment yield one or more decades after logging. There is mixed evidence for the role of streamside tree throw in riparian buffers in supplying sediment to streams. Harvesting within the riparian zone may not increase suspended sediment yield if near stream soils are not disturbed. Key knowledge gaps relate to the relative roles of increased transport capacity versus sediment supply, the dynamics of fine sediment penetration into bed sediments, and the effects of forest harvesting on suspended sediment at different scales. Future research should involve nested catchments to examine suspended sediment response to forest practices at multiple spatial scales, in combination with process‐based field studies.     

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CONCEPTUALIZATION IN THE HSPF‐MODFLOW INTEGRATED MODELS1

In 1988, the Florida Institute of Phosphate Research (FIPR) funded project to develop an advanced hydrologic model for shallow water table systems. The FIPR hydrologic model (FHM) was developed to provide an improved predictive capability of the interactions of surface water and ground water using its component models, HSPF and MODFLOW. The Integrated Surface and Ground Water (ISGW) model was developed from an early version of FHM and the two models were developed relatively independently in the late 1990s. Hydrologic processes including precipitation, interception, evapotranspiration, runoff, recharge, streamflow, and base flow are explicitly accounted for in both models. Considerable review of FHM and ISGW and their applications occurred through a series of projects. One model evolved, known as the Integrated Hydrological Model IHM. This model more appropriately describes hydrologic processes, including evapotranspiration fluxes within small distributed land‐based discretization. There is a significant departure of many IHM algorithms from FHM and ISGW, especially for soil water and evapotranspiration (ET). In this paper, the ET concepts in FHM, ISGW, and IHM will be presented. The paper also identifies the advantages and data costs of the improved methods. In FHM and IHM, ground water ET algorithms of the MODFLOW ET package replace those of HSPF (ISGW used a different model for ground water ET). However, IHM builds on an improved understanding and characterization of ET partitioning between surface storages, vadose zone storage, and saturated ground water storage. The IHM considers evaporative flux from surface sources, proximity of the water table to land surface, relative moisture condition of the unsaturated zone, thickness of the capillary zone, thickness of the root zone, and relative plant cover density. The improvements provide a smooth transition to satisfy ET demand between the vadose zone and deeper saturated ground water. While the IHM approach provides a more sound representation of the actual soil profile than FHM, and has shown promise at reproducing soil moisture and water table fluctuations as well as field measured ET rates, more rigorous testing is necessary to understand the robustness and/or limitations of this methodology.