A Probabilistic,Parcel‐Level Inundation Prediction Tool for Medium‐Range Flood Forecasting in Large Lake Systems

This study contributes a bathtub‐style inundation prediction model with abstractions of coastal processes (i.e., storm surge and wave runup) for flood forecasting at medium‐range (weekly to monthly) timescales along the coastline of large lakes. Uncertainty from multiple data sources are propagated through the model to establish probabilistic bounds of inundation, providing a conservative measure of risk. The model is developed in a case study of the New York Lake Ontario shoreline, which has experienced two record‐setting floods over the course of three years (2017–2019). Predictions are developed at a parcel‐level and are validated using inundation accounts from an online survey and flyover imagery taken during the recent flood events. Model predictions are compared against a baseline, deterministic model that accounts for the same processes but does not propagate forward data uncertainties. Results suggest that a probabilistic approach helps capture observed instances of inundation that would otherwise be missed by a deterministic inundation model. However, downward biases are still present in probabilistic predictions, especially for parcels impacted by wave runup. The goal of the tool is to provide community planners and property owners with a conservative, parcel‐level assessment of flood risk to help inform short‐term emergency response and better prepare for future flood events.     

Adaptive Management of Flows in the Lower Roanoke River, North Carolina, USA

The lower Roanoke River in North Carolina, USA, has been regulated by a series of dams since the 1950s. This river and its floodplain have been identified by The Nature Conservancy, the US Fish and Wildlife Service, and the State of North Carolina as critical resources for the conservation of bottomland hardwoods and other riparian and in-stream biota and communities. Upstream dams are causing extended floods in the growing season for bottomland hardwood forests, threatening their survival. A coalition of stakeholders including public agencies and private organizations is cooperating with the dam managers to establish an active adaptive management program to reduce the negative impacts of flow regulation, especially extended growing season inundation, on these conservation targets. We introduce the lower Roanoke River, describe the regulatory context for negotiating towards an active adaptive management program, present our conservation objective for bottomland hardwoods, and describe investigations in which we successfully employed a series of models to develop testable management hypotheses. We propose adaptive management strategies that we believe will enable the bottomland hardwoods to regenerate and support their associated biota and that are reasonable, flexible, and economically sustainable.     

THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACT OF INUNDATION OF TERRESTRIAL VEGETATION ON THE WATER QUALITY OF QUABBIN RESERVOIR – COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS1

ABSTRACT: Drought in the 1960's lowered Quabbin Reservoir levels and exposed extensive shore areas for up to 12 years. Several vegetation types including gray birch, spirea, reed and cottonwood invaded the exposed shore and were subsequently submerged when water levels rose in 1972–73. Biomass of the flooded vegetation is estimated at 14,000 tons. Using literature-derived estimates of nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in the vegetation, the potential nutrient release to the reservoir is about 140 tons of N and 14 tons of P. These amounts are comparable to the N and P input into the reservoir during a single year of the planned diversion from the Connecticut River. The critical factor of rate of release of these nutrients by decomposition is the subject of continuing study.     

Mathematical Model on Flow Regime and Water Harvesting in Inundation Plains1

Abstract: A mathematical model on flow regime and water harvesting in inundation plains is presented. The flow profile is a free over‐fall at the end of the desired inundation. The flow front in the plain is on‐line for the entire coverage, in a sense that there is initiation of flow mass after each small reach of the flow traverse, and it is continuing to the extreme point of coverage. The water‐harvesting phenomenon depends upon the occurrences of the hydrologic events, the nature of surface flows in the valley, the expected favorable time of flood incidence, and the soil characteristics of the plains. The model has been tested for three micro‐watersheds of different soil characteristics. It is best suited to platykurtic nature of flood phenomenon in the study area, with the correlation co‐efficient in‐between computed and observed amount of water harvesting above 0.90.     

A Faster and Economical Approach to Floodplain Mapping Using Soil Information

Flood inundation maps play a key role in assessment and mitigation of potential flood hazards. However, owing to high costs associated with the conventional flood mapping methods, many communities in the United States lack flood inundation maps. The objective of this study is to develop and examine an economical alternative approach to floodplain mapping using widely available soil survey geographic (SSURGO) database. In this study, floodplain maps are developed for the entire state of Indiana, and some counties in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Washington states by identifying flood‐prone soil map units based on their attributes. For validation, the flood extents obtained from SSURGO database are compared with the extents from other floodplain maps such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency issued flood insurance rate maps (FIRMs), flood extents observed during past floods, and flood maps derived using digital elevation models. In general, SSURGO‐based floodplain maps (SFMs) are largely in agreement with other flood inundation maps. Specifically, the floodplain extents from SFMs cover 78‐95% area compared to FIRMs and observed flood extents. Thus, albeit with a slight loss in accuracy, the SSURGO approach offers an economical and fast alternative for floodplain mapping. In particular, it has potentially high utility in areas where no detailed flood studies have been conducted.     

Local Responses to Inundation and De-Farming in the Reservoir Region of the Three Gorges Project (China)

Large-scale infrastructural developments in rural areas often impose significant direct and indirect impacts on environment and people. The Three Gorges Project to dam the Yangtze River in China will create a huge reservoir, inundate farmlands and villages, and incur large-scale resettlement. The concurrent de-farming program to reforest marginal farmlands on steep slopes imposes additional stresses on local people. This study evaluates the ecological and economic adjustments in rural areas affected by both projects, and explores villagers’ knowledge, attitudes, perceptions, and expectations vis-à-vis the drastic changes. Eleven villages in Yunyang County in Sichuan Province, stratified into three zones based on topography and agriculture, were assessed by field studies, questionnaire surveys, maps, satellite imagery, and census and government reports. Multiple regressions identified predictors for 17 dependent variables. Spatial variations in the difficult terrain imposed zone-differentiated agricultural constraints, ecological impacts, and human responses. The dominant farming population—mainly young adults working as migrant laborers in cities—has adopted some nonagricultural work to supplement incomes. Expected per-capita standardized farmland (SF) exceeded threshold SF, which surpasses existing SF. Motivations to reclaim more farmlands, de-farm marginal lands, and become migrant laborers were explained by different multiple-regression predictors. Reduction in farmland stock by inundation and de-farming, aggravated by unwillingness towards nonlocal resettlement, would impose ecological pressures and stimulate demands for nonfarming incomes. Common anticipation of better future income and occupation has been subdued by unfavorable feedbacks from early relocatees. Future environmental and landscape changes are hinged upon changing human responses. Government policies could be informed by research findings to match economic, ecological, and social realities.     

Spatial distribution and internal metal concentrations of terrestrial arthropods in a moderately contaminated lowland floodplain along the Rhine River

Soil metal concentrations, inundation characteristics and abundances of 14 arthropod taxa were investigated in a moderately contaminated lowland floodplain along the Rhine River and compared to the hinterland. Internal metal concentrations were determined for the orders of Coleoptera (beetles) and Araneida (spiders) and were related to soil concentrations. The floodplain was characterized by larger arthropod abundance than the hinterland, in spite of recurrent inundations and higher soil metal concentrations. Most arthropod taxa showed increasing abundance with decreasing distance to the river channel and increasing average inundation duration. For Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn, significant relations were found between arthropod concentrations and concentrations in soil. Significant relations were few but positive, indicating that increasing soil concentrations result in increasing body burdens in arthropods. For arthropod-eating vertebrates, these results might imply that larger prey availability in the floodplain coincides with higher metal concentrations in prey, possibly leading to increased exposure to metal contamination.     

淹水增加对闽江河口淡水潮汐湿地孔隙水地球化学特征及CO2和CH4排放通量的影响

海平面上升使得河口潮汐湿地淹水高度增加,对CO_2和CH_4的排放通量产生重要影响,但目前绝大多数研究集中在淹水增加对河口盐沼湿地的影响,淹水增加对于河口淡水潮汐湿地的影响缺乏数据.鉴于此,本研究利用模拟潮汐池和中型生态系,研究淹水增加15 cm和30 cm后对闽江河口淡水潮汐湿地孔隙水(NH_4+、NO_3-、DOC、溶解性CH_4和DIC)浓度及CO_2和CH_4排放通量的影响.结果表明,淹水高度增加15 cm和30 cm后,CO_2的排放通量分别下降28. 53%和36. 56%;淹水增加15 cm时,CH_4的排放通量没有显著变化,增加至30 cm后,CH_4的排放通量显著增加29. 27%;淹水高度增加15 cm和30 cm,孔隙水CH_4的浓度分别增加47. 83%和73. 91%.淹水增加对孔隙水DOC浓度变化影响不显著.淹水增加促进孔隙水NH_4+浓度,并降低孔隙水DIC和NO_3-的浓度.淹水增加降低CO_2和CH_4排放通量的温度敏感性.根据研究结果,未来海平面上升50 a和100 a后,闽江河口淡水潮汐湿地的综合增温潜势将分别降低28%和35%.     

基于SCS-CN与GIS耦合模型的闽三角城市群承灾空间淹没风险研究

以闽三角城市群为研究对象,创新水文SCS-CN算法与GIS耦合技术,计算出不同暴雨重现期(5 a,10 a,50 a一遇)下的淹没范围,构建闽三角城市群内涝淹没风险评估体系.通过地理探测器进一步探究淹没风险与社会生态系统空间分布规律,为闽三角城镇群的生态安全保障与可持续发展提供技术支撑.研究表明:闽三角城市群内涝淹没区...     

基于GIS的小城镇洪灾淹没分析与应急决策系统

近年来,将GIS技术与水文模型相结合,再根据数字高程模型DEM预测、模拟显示洪水淹没区,并进行灾害评估,已成为GIS应用和水利领域一个研究热点。笔者介绍了利用GIS技术建立的小城镇洪灾淹没分析与应急决策系统的构架、数据库的建设及其实现的功能等内容。该系统解决了一系列关键技术:小城镇空间数据库的建库技术及三维可视化、洪水淹没范围的确定以及洪水淹没实时动态演示等,能够对洪水灾害及其损失进行分析预测,对洪水灾情进行快速评估,是小城镇政府部门科学地制定防洪和减灾对策,迅速有效地采取抗洪救灾措施的保障手段。该系统适合我国现有国情,有利于维护小城镇社会经济持续稳定发展,具有很强的现实意义。