京津冀城市扩张对植被和地表城市热岛的影响

基于MODIS-LST、EVI以及土地利用/覆盖数据,分析了2000~2015年京津冀13个城市生长季及不同季节城市扩张对植被（ΔEVI）和地表城市热岛影响的时间变化趋势以及二者之间的关系,结果表明,京津冀13个城市主城区生长季及不同季节的城市扩张对植被均存在消极影响（ΔEVI<0）,对夏季植被的影响最大（ΔEVI=-0.131）;白天和夜间的地表城市热岛强度（SUHII）最大值均出现在夏季,分别为2.594℃和1.859℃;不同季节的ΔEVI均值呈现显著下降趋势,其速率分别为-0.0038,-0.0033,-0.0045和-0.0018/a（P<0.01）;生长季、春季和夏季白天SUHII均呈显著增加趋势,速率分别为0.076,0.093和0.106℃/a（P<0.01）,不同季节夜间SUHII均呈显著增加的趋势,其增加速率分别为0.05,0.055,0.049,0.054和0.046℃/a;京津冀13个城市主城区的ΔEVI均值和SUHII均值呈显著负相关（P<0.01）,其相关系数介于-0.959~-0.592之间;白天SUHII与ΔEVI的相关性最高为生长季（r=-0.959）,夜间SUHII与ΔEVI的相关性最高为春季（r=-0.936）.     

济南市城市扩展与城市暴雨洪灾

阐述了济南市城市扩展历程和城市暴雨洪灾概况,分析了济南市城市暴雨洪灾的成因.研究结果表明,浅盆地形和多暴雨的气候条件是济南市城市暴雨洪灾的自然致灾因素,而城市扩展后,城市雨岛效应增加了市区暴雨出现的频率与强度,城市外部排水变为内部排水,对下垫面性质及自然沟道、洼地的改造使城市洪量增大,滞时减小等,加剧了济南市城市暴雨洪灾的量级和频度.为应对严峻的城市暴雨洪灾,提出了排蓄结合的应对措施.即从源头上减少流经城区的洪水量,加强排水系统的整治,建立健全雨情、水情遥测网和城市防洪调度决策支持系统.     

湖北省60年代以来平均气温变化趋势初探

计算了湖北省７２个气象台年,季,月平均气温在１９６１－１９９５年间的气候倾向率,分析其时空分布特征发现：１）全省大部春季,秋季,年的ｂ值小,夏屯,冬季的ｂ值;２）冬季或１２－２、４月的ｂ值多为正,夏季或３、６－８月的ｂ值为多负,且有一定显著程度;３）夏季变凉冬季变暖,春季前后的变化大,秋季前后变化小;（４）升温中心多在江汉平原和鄂东南,降温中心多在鄂西山区尤其是鄂西北;５）大、中城市的相对热岛效应     

Predicting Plant Extinction Based on Species-Area Curves in Prairie Fragments with High Beta Richness

Abstract:  Species-area relationships and island biogeography theory are commonly used to predict how species richness will decline with fragmentation. There are a variety of largely untested assumptions in these approaches, including the assumptions that populations are distributed uniformly before fragmentation, and that local extinctions are due to effects of small population sizes. If populations are not distributed uniformly, then populations can be abundant locally but rare globally. This would cause extinction rates to be smaller than predicted. We tested extinction theory by developing estimates of the number of plant species that should be present in small tallgrass prairie fragments and then testing the uniformity assumption by partitioning species richness into α (within site) and β (among site) components in Iowa prairies. Many more native prairie plant species were present in surveys of prairie fragments (491) than was predicted based on theory (27–207). A large proportion (75%) of the total species richness was β richness. We suggest that the high proportion of β richness was responsible for the shallow species-area slopes and the lower than expected number of species losses and that a better understanding of what determines β diversity will improve predictions of fragmentation effects on richness of plants. We also suggest that plants in prairie remnants may be best conserved by protecting different prairie types rather than by protecting a few large areas containing a single prairie type.     

上海市城市化进程中热环境响应的空间评价

利用Landsat TM/ETM+ 遥感数据解译与反演得到上海市1997~2009年的土地利用/覆盖类型图及热岛强度分布图,并分析其演变趋势,引入温度-植被指数(TVX)并采用TVX空间法定量研究了以建设用地扩张、生态用地减少为特点的城市化过程引起的热环境效应.研究表明,1997~2009年,上海市人口呈现从中心城至郊区的流动趋势;热岛强度分布与城市化建设密切相关,呈现“葫芦串-葡萄串-摊大饼型”的蔓延模式;以牺牲生态用地为代价的建设用地扩张造成研究区域地表温度的上升及植被覆盖度的下降,其中林地减少所引起的热环境效应最大.研究可为城市规划决策过程中不同城市化空间的拓展情景提供其可能的环境响应结果,从而完善气候变化适应性对策,推进城市生态系统的可持续发展.     

长江三角洲城市群人为热排放特征研究

基于常规可获取的能源、交通、人口等统计资料,利用“自上而下”的能源清单法,研究了2010年长江三角洲(以下简称“长三角”)城市群地区各类人为热排放量及其时空分布特征.结果表明:该地区人为热排放总量为1.4′1019J/a,其中工业、交通、建筑、新陈代谢分别占75.1%、12.5%、9.9%和2.5%.上海、苏州、无锡、杭州和南京五个城市的人为热排放总量约占研究区域总量的71%.长三角城市群的人为热年平均排放通量为5.3W/m2,大部分地区介于5~30W/m2,城市高值区一般介于20~70W/m2,上海明显高于其他城市.为方便有关环境气候模式的输入,本文提供了人为热排放的网格化空间分布和简单的时间变化廓线.     

Nation‐building policies in Timor‐Leste: disaster risk reduction,including climate change adaptation

Few studies have explored the relationships between nation‐building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation‐building in Timor‐Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation‐building in Timor‐Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor‐Leste's history and its nation‐building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation‐building in Timor‐Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor‐Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths.     

基于森林健康视角的北长山岛人工林生物量

以山东省长岛县北长山岛为研究区,通过现场调查、数学模型和3S技术,分析人工林生物量的总量（全部生物量）、存量（活树生物量）、失量（死树生物量）和存量失量比,并探讨生物量的影响因子.结果显示：（1）北长山岛人工林生物量总量共5.88万t,均值为145.8t/hm²,高于全国和山东省的平均水平;生物量存量共3.79万t,失量共2.09万t,其均值分别为93.9t/hm²和51.9t/hm²,森林健康问题已经成为影响北长山岛人工林生物量的重要因素.（2）随着林分密度的增加,生物量总量和存量呈现先上升后下降的趋势,失量持续上升,存量失量比则不断下降;随着胸径的增大,黑松的存量失量比逐渐减小,刺槐则相反;NDVI与生物量总量、存量和存量失量比呈显著正相关,与失量呈显著负相关.（3）存量失量比与坡向、土壤含水率、全磷和总氮呈显著正相关,与海拔、坡度、含盐量和全钾呈显著负相关,与坡位、pH值和总碳关系不明显.     

A case study of urban heat islands in the Carolinas

Urbanization tends to aggravate the negative effects of climate. The objective of this research is to aid in the understanding of the spatial variation of urban heat islands within selected cities in North and South Carolina. This understanding will help guide efforts to cool cities in order to increase human comfort, conserve energy and resources, and reduce air pollution in both of these states.     

Incorporating geographical and evolutionary rarity into conservation prioritization

Key goals of conservation are to protect both species and the functional and genetic diversity they represent. A strictly species-based approach may underrepresent rare, threatened, or genetically distinct species and overrepresent widespread species. Although reserves are created for a number of reasons, including economic, cultural, and ecological reasons, their efficacy has been measured primarily in terms of how well species richness is protected, and it is useful to compare how well they protect other measures of diversity. We used Proteaceae species-occurrence data in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa to illustrate differences in the spatial distribution of species and evolutionary diversity estimated from a new maximum-likelihood molecular phylogeny. We calculated species richness, phylogenetic diversity (i.e., summed phylogenetic branch lengths in a site), and a site-aggregated measure of biogeographically weighted evolutionary distinctiveness (i.e., an abundance weighted measure that captures the unique proportion of the phylogenetic tree a species represents) for sites throughout the Cape Floristic Region. Species richness and phylogenetic diversity values were highly correlated for sites in the region, but species richness was concentrated at a few sites that underrepresented the much more spatially extensive distribution of phylogenetic diversity. Biogeographically weighted evolutionary diversity produced a scheme of prioritization distinct from the other 2 metrics and highlighted southern sites as conservation priorities. In these sites, the high values of biogeographically weighted evolutionary distinctiveness were the result of a nonrandom relation between evolutionary distinctiveness and geographical rarity, where rare species also tended to have high levels of evolutionary distinctiveness. Such distinct and rare species are of particular concern, but are not captured by conservation schemes that focus on species richness or phylogenetic diversity alone.