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Citrus Sudden Death (CSD) is a disease that has affected sweet orange trees grafted on Rangpur lime in the south of Minas Gerais state and in the north of São Paulo state (Brazil). This is a worrying characteristic because the Rangpur lime responds to 85% of the Brazilian citrus rootstocks. This disease is believed to be caused by a virus transmitted by aphids (vector) of the citrus. In this work, we have adopted the Cellular Automata model (CA) to study the temporal evolution of the disease. We take into account the effect of the wind in the space covered by the aphid. To establish the relationship between the space covered by the aphid and the intensity of the wind, we have adopted the rule-based fuzzy system. Simulations were performed and compared to real data. Through the use of the mean absolute error (MAE) method, it was possible to verify a 70% of similarity between our model of data and the real one. 相似文献
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A Global Baseline for Spawning Aggregations of Reef Fishes 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
YVONNE SADOVY DE MITCHESON ANDREW CORNISH MICHAEL DOMEIER PATRICK L. COLIN MARTIN RUSSELL KENYON C. LINDEMAN 《Conservation biology》2008,22(5):1233-1244
Abstract: Species that periodically and predictably congregate on land or in the sea can be extremely vulnerable to overexploitation. Many coral reef fishes form spawning aggregations that are increasingly the target of fishing. Although serious declines are well known for a few species, the extent of this behavior among fishes and the impacts of aggregation fishing are not appreciated widely. To profile aggregating species globally, establish a baseline for future work, and strengthen the case for protection, we (as members of the Society for the Conservation of Reef Fish Aggregations) developed a global database on the occurrence, history, and management of spawning aggregations. We complemented the database with information from interviews with over 300 fishers in Asia and the western Pacific. Sixty‐seven species, mainly commercial, in 9 families aggregate to spawn in the 29 countries or territories considered in the database. Ninety percent of aggregation records were from reef pass channels, promontories, and outer reef‐slope drop‐offs. Multispecies aggregation sites were common, and spawning seasons of most species typically lasted <3 months. The best‐documented species in the database, the Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus), has undergone substantial declines in aggregations throughout its range and is now considered threatened. Our findings have important conservation and management implications for aggregating species given that exploitation pressures on them are increasing, there is little effective management, and 79% of those aggregations sufficiently well documented were reported to be in decline. Nonetheless, a few success stories demonstrate the benefits of aggregation management. A major shift in perspective on spawning aggregations of reef fish, from being seen as opportunities for exploitation to acknowledging them as important life‐history phenomena in need of management, is urgently needed. 相似文献
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Finding Hope in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
RICHARD B. NORGAARD 《Conservation biology》2008,22(4):862-869
Abstract: Over the past quarter century, a new scientific activity has emerged: collective assessments by large numbers of scientists from different disciplines combining their expertise to better understand human interrelations with nature and to inform policy. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment exceeded all such assessments before it in both the breadth of its coverage and the depth of its analysis of socioecological system dynamics. The findings are not encouraging. Nearly all ecosystems are being degraded and will continue to be degraded for decades to come even if policy changes are initiated now. For scientists participating in the assessment, the MA had another disconcerting aspect. It clearly shows that our fragmented, disciplinary knowledges cannot simply be combined to form an understanding of a whole complex system. Counterbalancing the despair of the findings and scientific difficulties of aggregating specialized knowledges, the MA demonstrated the potential of a deliberative democratic approach to grappling with complex problems . 相似文献
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大气污染总量控制规划专家系统中知识库子系统的研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
论述了大气污染总量控制规划专家系统(EASPTECEP)中知识库的基本设计思想,知识库分为无级知识库和领域级知识库,元级知识库由类文件和元规则文件构成,领域级知识库则文件和参量文件构成,并在此基础上阐述了ESAPTECP中知识库演绎推理系统,知识库解释系统,知识库管理系统等的设计与实现方法。 相似文献
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Abstract: Conservation and restoration goals are often defined by historical baseline conditions that occurred prior to a particular period of human disturbance, such as European settlement in North America. Nevertheless, if ecosystems were heavily influenced by native peoples prior to European settlement, conservation efforts may require active management rather than simple removal of or reductions in recent forms of disturbance. We used pre‐European settlement land survey records (1859–1874) and contemporary vegetation surveys to assess changes over the past 150 years in tree species and habitat composition, forest density, and tree size structure on southern Vancouver Island and Saltspring Island, British Columbia, Canada. Several lines of evidence support the hypothesis that frequent historical burning by native peoples, and subsequent fire suppression, have played dominant roles in shaping this landscape. First, the relative frequency of fire‐sensitive species (e.g., cedar [Thuja plicata]) has increased, whereas fire‐tolerant species (e.g., Douglas‐fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii]) have decreased. Tree density has increased 2‐fold, and the proportion of the landscape in forest has greatly increased at the expense of open habitats (plains, savannas), which today contain most of the region's threatened species. Finally, the frequency distribution of tree size has shifted from unimodal to monotonically decreasing, which suggests removal of an important barrier to tree recruitment. In addition, although most of the open habitats are associated with Garry oak (Quercus garryana) at present, most of the open habitats prior to European settlement were associated with Douglas‐fir, which suggests that the current focus on Garry oak as a flagship for the many rare species in savannas may be misguided. Overall, our results indicate that the maintenance and restoration of open habitats will require active management and that historical records can provide critical guidance to such efforts. 相似文献
47.
JOCELYN G. MUELLER ISSOUFOU HASSANE BIL ASSANOU† IRO DAN GUIMBO‡ ASTIER M. ALMEDOM§ 《Conservation biology》2010,24(1):140-150
Abstract: There is a pressing need to find both locally and globally relevant tools to measure and compare biodiversity patterns. Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) is important to biodiversity monitoring, but has a contested role in preliminary biodiversity assessments. We examined rapid participatory rural appraisal (rPRA) (a tool commonly used for local needs assessments) as an alternative to surveys of vascular plants conducted by people with local knowledge. We used rPRA to determine the local-knowledge consensus on the average richness, diversity, and height of local grasses and trees in three habitats surrounding Boumba, Niger, bordering Park-W. We then conducted our own vascular plant surveys to collect information on plant richness, abundance, and structure. Using a qualitative ranking, we compared TEK-based assessments of diversity patterns with our survey-based assessments. The TEK-based assessments matched survey-based assessments on measures of height and density for grasses and trees and tree richness. The two assessments correlated poorly on herb richness and Simpson's D value for both trees and grasses. Plant life form and gender of the participant affected the way diversity patterns were described, which highlights the usefulness of TEK in explaining local realities and indicates limitations of using TEK as a large-scale assessment tool. Our results demonstrate that rPRA can serve to combine local-knowledge inquiry with scientific study at a cost lower than vascular plant surveys and demonstrates a useful blunt tool for preliminary biodiversity assessment. 相似文献
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攀西-六盘水地区水能、矿产资源丰富,是建设我国能源、原材料生产的重要基地,也是长江上游资源开发和生态保护区的重要组成部分。本文在分析加快开发该区优势资源的有利条件和不利因素的基础上,提出了开发建设的总体目际和思路,突出水能和矿产资源优势,加强对农业和林业的开发,力争到21世纪中叶使该区建成我国重要的能源、原材料生产基地,从根本上改变该区文通闭塞、经济、文化落后的面貌,在主要经济、技术指标上赶上全国的平均先进水平。 相似文献