城乡交错带土地利用研究——以芜湖市为例

城乡交错带是城市扩展和农村发展的前沿,也是统筹城乡关系的重点地区。选择芜湖市城乡交错带为研究区域,利用2004年土地利用数据分析了芜湖市城乡交错带地域土地利用的现状和存在的主要问题及其原因,探讨了2006年辖区调整后该地域土地利用的对策与措施。     

关于地区绿色距离和绿色贡献的变迁分析

全面建设小康社会必须摒弃“高消耗、高污染、低产出”的模式,树立和落实科学发展观,走绿色发展道路。该文以万元GDP能源消耗、水资源消耗、COD排放、SO2排放4个指标为基础,建立体现经济与环境协调发展的绿色距离和绿色贡献2个综合性指标,以生态省和生态市捐应指标为标准,分析了我国大陆地区各省份对应4个指标的绿色距离和绿色贡献现状。比较分析表明：经济发达地区如北京、上海、江苏、浙江等省份开始向“绿色经济”变迁;经济中游地区如辽宁、河北、湖北、安徽、吉林、黑龙江等省份则处于走出“黑色经济”发展的边缘并向“绿色经济”转化的阶段;其他地区则基本上处于“黑色经济”发展阶段,不仅绿色距离大,而且绿色贡献均小于1。     

Metal Contamination of the Natural Environment in Norway from Long Range Atmospheric Transport

Long range atmospheric transport is the most important sourceof contamination to the natural environment in Norway with manyheavy metals. Investigations based on aerosol studies, bulkdeposition measurements and moss analysis show that airborne transport from other parts of Europe is the major mode for supplyof vanadium, zinc, arsenic, selenium, molybdenum, cadmium, tin,antimony, tellurium, thallium, lead, and bismuth, whereas metalssuch as chromium, nickel, and copper are mainly derived from point sources within Norway and in northwestern Russia close tothe Norwegian border. Elements associated with long range transport show substantial enrichment in the humus horizon of natural soils in southern Norway, sometimes to levels suspected to cause effects on soil microbial processes. E.g. lead concentration values of 150–200 ppm are observed in the mostcontaminated areas in the south as compared to about 5 ppm inthe far north. Elements such as lead and cadmium also show enrichment in some terrestrial food chains. These elements alsoshow considerably elevated levels over background concentrationsin the water and sediment of small lakes in the southern part ofthe country. Retrospective studies based on ombrogenous peatcores indicate that long range transport has been a significantsource of heavy metal contamination in southern Norway for thelast couple of centuries. The deposition of most heavy metals inNorway has been considerably reduced over the last 20 yr, withthe exception of contributions in the north from Russian smelters.     

Use of radar detectors to track attendance of albatrosses at fishing vessels

Despite international waters covering over 60% of the world's oceans, understanding of how fisheries in these regions shape ecosystem processes is surprisingly poor. Seabirds forage at fishing vessels, which has potentially deleterious effects for their population, but the extent of overlap and behavior in relation to ships is poorly known. Using novel biologging devices, which detect radar emissions and record the position of boats and seabirds, we measured the true extent of the overlap between seabirds and fishing vessels and generated estimates of the intensity of fishing and distribution of vessels in international waters. During breeding, wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) from the Crozet Islands patrolled an area of over 10 million km² at distances up to 2500 km from the colony. Up to 79.5% of loggers attached to birds detected vessels. The extent of overlap between albatrosses and fisheries has widespread implications for bycatch risk in seabirds and reveals the areas of intense fishing throughout the ocean. We suggest that seabirds equipped with radar detectors are excellent monitors of the presence of vessels in the Southern Ocean and offer a new way to monitor the presence of illegal fisheries and to better understand the impact of fisheries on seabirds.     

Integrated models to support multiobjective ecological restoration decisions

Many objectives motivate ecological restoration, including improving vegetation condition, increasing the range and abundance of threatened species, and improving species richness and diversity. Although models have been used to examine the outcomes of ecological restoration, few researchers have attempted to develop models to account for multiple, potentially competing objectives. We developed a combined state‐and‐transition, species‐distribution model to predict the effects of restoration actions on vegetation condition and extent, bird diversity, and the distribution of several bird species in southeastern Australian woodlands. The actions reflected several management objectives. We then validated the models against an independent data set and investigated how the best management decision might change when objectives were valued differently. We also used model results to identify effective restoration options for vegetation and bird species under a constrained budget. In the examples we evaluated, no one action (improving vegetation condition and extent, increasing bird diversity, or increasing the probability of occurrence for threatened species) provided the best outcome across all objectives. In agricultural lands, the optimal management actions for promoting the occurrence of the Brown Treecreeper (Climacteris picumnus), an iconic threatened species, resulted in little improvement in the extent of the vegetation and a high probability of decreased vegetation condition. This result highlights that the best management action in any situation depends on how much the different objectives are valued. In our example scenario, no management or weed control were most likely to be the best management options to satisfy multiple restoration objectives. Our approach to exploring trade‐offs in management outcomes through integrated modeling and structured decision‐support approaches has wide application for situations in which trade‐offs exist between competing conservation objectives.     

Effects of surrounding land use and water depth on seagrass dynamics relative to a catastrophic algal bloom

Seagrasses are the foundation of many coastal ecosystems and are in global decline because of anthropogenic impacts. For the Indian River Lagoon (Florida, U.S.A.), we developed competing multistate statistical models to quantify how environmental factors (surrounding land use, water depth, and time [year]) influenced the variability of seagrass state dynamics from 2003 to 2014 while accounting for time‐specific detection probabilities that quantified our ability to determine seagrass state at particular locations and times. We classified seagrass states (presence or absence) at 764 points with geographic information system maps for years when seagrass maps were available and with aerial photographs when seagrass maps were not available. We used 4 categories (all conservation, mostly conservation, mostly urban, urban) to describe surrounding land use within sections of lagoonal waters, usually demarcated by land features that constricted these waters. The best models predicted that surrounding land use, depth, and year would affect transition and detection probabilities. Sections of the lagoon bordered by urban areas had the least stable seagrass beds and lowest detection probabilities, especially after a catastrophic seagrass die‐off linked to an algal bloom. Sections of the lagoon bordered by conservation lands had the most stable seagrass beds, which supports watershed conservation efforts. Our results show that a multistate approach can empirically estimate state‐transition probabilities as functions of environmental factors while accounting for state‐dependent differences in seagrass detection probabilities as part of the overall statistical inference procedure.     

Effect of mass fraction of long flame coal on swelling pressure and microstructures of cokes

Long flame coal are abundant and widely distributed in China, but the resource utilization is quite low, the production efficiency is not high. Stamp-charging coke making technology can bend some long flame coal, which can reduce production cost and expand the coking coal resources. The long flame coal of different mass fraction is added into prime coking coal including fat coal from Longhu, 1/3 coking coal from Xinjian and coking coal from Didao in experiment. The swelling pressure is tested on-line detection using pressure sensor in coke making process, and the pores are observed by scanning electron microscopy. The results show that, the swelling pressure first increase and then decrease with the temperature increased and the maximum swelling pressure reduces gradually with mass fraction of the Long flame coal from Shenmu increased in coke making process. The SEM images of resultant coke display that the coke get more and more loose and the amount of pores is increased with mass fraction of the long flame coal from Shenmu increased. The amount pores and the pore diameter both is minimum for coking coal from Didao as prime coking coal under the same fraction of long flame coal.     

钝锥表面脉动压力风洞试验研究

目的获得钝锥在风洞实验连续变雷诺数过程中表面脉动压力的变化规律。方法基于利用超声速风洞,研究Ma=6、α=0°工况下,单位长度雷诺数从4.5×10⁷ m^-1连续变化为1.0×10⁷m^-1过程中钝锥表面脉动压力时域、频域的变化规律。结果在雷诺数从高到低变化过程中,钝锥表面测点脉动压力时域信号幅值出现了瞬间下降现象。基于自由来流动压归一化脉动压力时域信号显示,转捩过程中归一化脉动压力较层流、湍流状态更高。从频域特性上看,10kHz范围内,转捩过程中6k Hz附近能量优先增长,并且逐渐往整个低频段扩展,整个频段归一化功率谱密度较湍流状态更高。结论在给定的马赫数与攻角工况下,湍流状态钝锥表面脉动压力归一化功率谱密度特性与来流雷诺数无关。边界层转捩时,基于来流动压归一化脉动压力功率谱密度较湍流更高,归一化脉动压力均方根系数约为湍流状态的2倍。环境工程及结构设计工程师在开展再入环境研究以及结构设计时应该对再入过程中出现的转捩现象予以关注。     

XGBoost-LSTM变权组合模型支持下短期PM2.5浓度预测——以上海为例

为进一步提高PM_2.5浓度预测的精度,基于XGBoost和LSTM进行改进得到变权组合模型XGBoost-LSTM（Variable）.过对预测因子进行相关性分析,得到其它大气污染物和气象因素对PM_2.5浓度的影响,确定最优PM_2.5浓度预测因子,再将预处理后数据集输入LSTM模型和XGBoost模型分别进行预测,采用基于残差改进的自适应变权组合方法得到最终预测结果.结果表明,污染物变量的相对重要性高于气象因子变量,其中当前PM_2.5和CO浓度的相对重要性较高,而平均风速和相对湿度重要性较低.XGBoost-LSTM（Variable）模型的RMSE、MAE和MAPE值为1.75、1.12和6.06,优于LSTM、XGBoost、SVR、XGBoost-LSTM（Equal）和XGBoost-LSTM（Residual）模型.分季节预测结果表明,XGBoost-LSTM（Variable）模型在春季预测精度最好,而夏季预测精度较差.模型预测精度高的原因在于其不仅考虑了数据的时间序列特征,又兼顾了数据的非线性特征.     

Has the Clean Development Mechanism assisted sustainable development?

One of the dual objectives of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol is to assist host countries in achieving sustainable development. With various CDM indicators for 58 CDM host countries over the period 2005‐2010, this paper empirically assesses whether CDM project development fulfils its sustainable development objective. Using a unique dynamic panel data method based on the long‐differenced model, this research provides convincing evidence that CDM projects contribute to sustainable development in host countries. It sheds light on the role of the CDM in the process of global sustainability with clear policy implications for developing countries and those embracing market instruments.