废水生化处理微生物对TCC／TCS生物毒性适应性研究

文章研究了抑菌剂TCC／TCS在废水生化处理系统的迁移转化规律、与微生物的作用机理及废水生化系统的反馈适应机制，对这类废水的工艺设计、工艺控制提供了有益的参考。     

持久性有机污染物(续完)

持久性有机污染物的环境化学和生态毒理学是目前环境研究最活跃的领域之一。本文综述了持久性有机污染物的成分特性、对生物群的毒理效应、环境污染源、环境分析、环境行为、食物链传播、地区性或全球性的污染传输等问题。同时提出了对目前和将来持久性有机污染物研究的一些浅见。     

重大技术变革与能源地缘政治转型

技术进步是能源地缘政治演进的物质基础,重大技术变革驱动能源利用形式的迭代升级。从能源转型的历史与现实出发,初步建立技术变革与地缘政治研究的理论分析框架。重大技术变革是推动能源转型的动力,而能源转型引发能源供需关系的改变,进而催生新的能源地缘政治格局。技术变革是能源地缘政治博弈的焦点。随着第四次工业革命的到来,在地理变量维度中稀土、钴、锂等能源关键元素成为大国争夺核心,而在科技变量维度中颠覆性能源技术则成为引领能源产业变革的关键。技术竞争、新供需关系与新地缘关系一同重塑了新能源地缘政治格局。新能源技术的发展对能源安全产生重大影响,一方面能源大国的博弈格局发生变化,能源外交的运用方式随之改变;另一方面与油气相关的地缘冲突将趋于减少,但电力断供将成为地缘政治博弈的新武器。     

Economics of Grassland Conversion to Cropland in the Prairie Pothole Region

Abstract: Much of the remaining grassland, particularly in North America, is privately owned, and its conversion to cultivated cropland is largely driven by economics. An understanding of why landowners convert grassland to cropland could facilitate more effective design of grassland‐conservation programs. We built an empirical model of land‐use change in the Prairie Pothole Region (north‐central United States) to estimate the probability of grassland conversion to alternative agricultural land uses, including cultivated crops. Conversion was largely driven by landscape characteristics and the economic returns of alternative uses. Our estimate of the probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops (1.33% on average from 1979 to 1997) was higher than past estimates (0.4%). Our model also predicted that grassland‐conversion probabilities will increase if agricultural commodity prices continue to follow the trends observed from 2001 to 2006 (0.93% probability of grassland conversion to cultivated crops in 2006 to 1.5% in 2011). Thus, nearly 121 million ha (30 million acres) of grassland could be converted by 2011. Conversion probabilities, however, are spatially heterogeneous (range 0.2% to 3%), depending on characteristics of a parcel (e.g., soil quality and economic returns). Grassland parcels with relatively high‐quality land for agricultural production are more likely to be converted to cultivated crops than lower‐quality parcels and are more responsive to changes in the economic returns on alternative agricultural land uses (i.e., conversion probability increases by a larger magnitude for high‐quality parcels when economics returns to alternative uses increase). Our results suggest that grassland conservation programs could be proactively targeted toward high‐risk parcels by anticipating changes in economic returns, such as could occur if a new biofuel processing plant were to be built in an area.     

Detonation transition criteria from the interaction of supersonic shock-flame complexes with different shaped obstacles

The present study is an experimental investigation of the last stages of the deflagration-to-detonation transition. A fast flame following a lead shock was generated by passing a detonation wave through a perforated plate. The shock flame complex then interacts with an obstacle of different shape. We study the influence of the obstacle shape on the transition mechanism to a detonation. The obstacles studied are a single round or square obstacle, a flat plate, a C-shaped and an H-shaped obstacle. The experiments were performed in a thin transparent channel permitting high speed schlieren visualization. Stoichiometric propane-oxygen was investigated at sub-atmospheric conditions. For each obstacle configuration, the initial pressure was changed to modify the flame burning velocity and the Mach number of the leading shock. The burning velocity prior to the interaction was measured experimentally from the displacement velocity of the flame in the videos. This required estimating the speed of the gas ahead of the flame. A linear correction to the speed immediately behind the lead shock was applied using the shock change equations and the measured pressure gradient behind the lead shock in order to account for the non-steadiness of the lead shock and viscous losses to the walls. Three main findings were that the obstacle shape had a minimal influence on the critical flame strength required for transition, although obstacles with a forward facing cavity were able to suppress the transition by isolating the re-initiation event inside the cavity. The main transition mechanism for all geometries was the enhancement of the flame burning velocity through the flame interaction with the shock reflected on the obstacle leading to Richtmyer-Meshkov instability. Finally, it was found that the flame burning velocity of the initial flame required for transition was closely approximated by the Chapman-Jouguet burning velocity. Consistent with the visual observations, this supports the view that transition is favored when the flame is in phase with the acoustic waves, and strong internal pressure waves can be amplified.     

能源流视角下村落尺度能源消费结构比较及环境效应研究：基于河南省邑西里村、杨家村及山东省东桥头村的调查分析

加强村落尺度能源消费活动及其环境效应研究是实现农村能源可持续转型及绿色发展精细化治理的前提。但目前该领域存在明显知识空白，其原因在于缺乏基础数据和系统化数据采集体系及集成分析方法。基于对河南省邑西里村、杨家村以及山东省东桥头村的实地调研和半结构式访谈，采用定性和定量结合的方法开展能源消费活动及环境效应比较研究。结果表明：（1）村落尺度能源消费具有显著空间分异特征。邑西里村、杨家村和东桥头村人均能源消费量分别为505 kgce、889 kgce和1139 kgce；由能源消费产生的温室气体与污染物的种类分别为CO₂、CH₄、SO₂、N₂O、NO_x和TSP，单个家庭CO₂的产生量在2000—4000 kg；CH₄、SO₂、TSP和NO_x的排放量基本在1—5 kg；N₂O的排放量均在100 g以下。（2）居民生活环境和炊事供暖是影响村域能源消费的主要因素。其在邑西里村、杨家村和东桥头村的总用能占比分别为50.10%、79.08%和77.61%。（3）能源来源及消费结构具有明显的区位属性特征。杨家村距离市区较近，天然气成为当地居民的主要来源；邑西里村和东桥头村离市区较远，则以电力和煤炭为主。未来乡村地区的发展应该与当地的地域特征相结合，构建具有地方化特征的发展策略，实现农村能源的低碳健康发展。     

The Yellow River in transition

Like many parts of the world, the Yellow River basin has problems associated with water scarcity, pollution, and flood risk. Analyses that focus only on the physical characteristics of these problems miss some of their most important social drivers. In this paper we identify some interlocking changes that have occurred as a consequence of economic reforms begun in China in 1978, and the implications of these changes for the Yellow River. The reforms have caused changes in the organisation of household production, increasing urbanisation and urban affluence, rapid industrialisation, and large scale spatial shifts in agricultural production. Rather than specific decisions it is these gradual changes that have affected the current status of the Yellow River and its basin. Our analysis suggests that at least some solutions to water problems in the Yellow River lie outside the basin, and beyond the realm of science or technology.     

Assessing the Acoustical Climate of Underground Stations

Designing a proper acoustical environment—indispensable to speech recognition—in long enclosures is difficult. Although there is some literature on the acoustical conditions in underground stations, there is still little information about methods that make estimation of correct reverberation conditions possible. This paper discusses the assessment of the reverberation conditions of underground stations. A comparison of the measurements of reverberation time in Warsaw’s underground stations with calculated data proves there are divergences between measured and calculated early decay time values, especially for long source–receiver distances. Rapid speech transmission index values for measured stations are also presented.     

基于EEMD-LSTM模型的尾矿库风险预测模型研究*

为了提高尾矿库风险预警能力,针对尾矿库稳定性受多种风险因素影响,以及风险变化的非线性,提出1种融合集合经验模态分解（EEMD）和长短期记忆（LSTM）的尾矿库风险预测模型。首先,采用皮尔逊相关系数分析尾矿库风险因素之间的相关性;然后,使用EEMD方法分解非线性的位移序列;最后,构建LSTM网络模型预测位移变化。以某尾矿库为例,将EEMD-LSTM模型与EEMD-BP模型、LSTM模型对比分析,评估模型的有效性。研究结果表明:EEMD-LSTM模型对尾矿库风险的预测精度明显提高,对防范化解尾矿库安全风险具有重要意义。