基于DCD的“安全—发展”协同治理绩效评估框架探讨

党的十九大提出“统筹发展和安全”的要求,构建相应的“安全—发展”协同治理绩效评估体系成为迫在眉睫的任务。通过运用社会基本矛盾、社会主要矛盾、社会主要矛盾主要方面的理论原理,构建“发展—应急—满意度”(Development-Contingencies-Degree of Satisfaction,DCD)的三角形绩效分析框架,设立经济发展、安全责任制、科学管理、依法行政、公共服务、安全感等一级指标,探讨若干二级和三级指标,构建“安全—发展”协同治理绩效评估指标体系框架,为检验常态与应急态协同绩效治理水平提供尺度。     

基于随机森林的飞机长着陆预警方法

为降低飞机冲出跑道事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,以长着陆事件为研究对象,探讨1种有效的长着陆事件预警方法。提出应用随机森林模型对长着陆事件进行预警,给出模型的特征筛选、构建及评价方法,并使用实际飞行数据验证模型有效性。结果表明:基于随机森林的飞机长着陆预警模型精确率为88.41%,召回率为87.14%,模型可以有效对长着陆事件进行预警。     

浮射流特性对工业建筑室内污染物分布影响研究

在前人实验数据误差分析的基础上,基于空间热及污染物分布相关理论,采用数值模拟方法,对不同浮射流强度下热及污染物分布过渡区进行研究。研究表明,浮射流强度较低(如373 K)时,污染物分布过渡区将增厚,部分污染物由于扩散作用将与热出现明显分离现象,扩散至建筑下部空间,影响工艺及人员健康。     

A numerical study on the feasibility and efficiency of point smoke extraction strategies in large cross-section shield tunnel fires using CFD modeling

The strategy of smoke control is of high importance for the design process of tunnels, especially for long and large cross-section tunnels. The South Hongmei Rd. Tunnel (SHT) located in Shanghai, China, is a 3.39 km long shield TBM (tunnel boring machine) tunnel with an external diameter of 14.5 m. The point smoke extraction system was proposed initially as the main ventilation strategy during a tunnel fire. To investigate the fire characteristics in the tunnel and develop appropriate smoke control strategies, a series of numerical 3D Computation Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations were conducted. Three fire scenarios, namely 5 MW, 20 MW and 50 MW, were modeled to evaluate the point extraction system. The gas temperatures, the stratification of the smoke, air temperature, minimum visibility etc., during the smoke spreading of a fire were analyzed. Based on the results of the simulation, the smoke extraction strategies according to fire scale and fire location were proposed for fire extinguishing. It was found that the three-point extraction opening strategy can control the smoke better than two-point extraction opening strategy under various fire scales, especially under serious fire scenario. From the results, damper openings ranged at closer intervals were found more efficient in two-point extraction system. Besides, placing the damper openings in the longitudinal direction can improve the efficiency of smoke extraction. It also results in reduction of the quantity of prefabricated members of duct slab and the process of assembly will be simplified during the construction.     

国外实施低碳经济转型对中国低碳经济发展的启示研究

中国人口基数大、发展水平低、人均资源占有量少的特点以及巨大燃煤量也导致中国环境污染问题愈发严重,决定了中国必须向发展低碳经济转变.中国应通过提高能源使用率,减少资源消耗,开发可再生能源等途径,削弱资源对经济发展的限制.虽然中国的基本国情和发展现状使中国向低碳经济发展转变的难度较大,但是发达国家实施低碳经济转型的实践活动为中国发展低碳经济提供了许多宝贵的经验,让中国发展低碳经济的过程中少走许多弯路,使中国向低碳经济更好的发展.     

Management of sustainability transitions through planning in shrinking resource city contexts: an evaluation of Yubari City,Japan

This paper evaluates the planning competences required to enact a managed transition to sustainability at the municipal level for cities facing population, economic and employment decline. Drawing on the ‘shrinking cities’ literature, we argue consolidation of the built environment can become a focal point for sustaining citizen welfare when transitioning cities that are facing decline, especially those previously reliant on resource industries. We evaluate the former coal mining city of Yubari, Japan, which is developing a consolidated urban form with the aim of creating a ‘sustainable’ future city. Findings from interviews and content analysis of Yubari’s planning policy indicate, however, that to translate ‘shrinking’ a city into a managed transition, spatial planning must be accompanied by a wider range of social policy measures and strong cross-sectoral engagement. We also caution that the unique geographical and political context of Yubari mean its model may not be directly replicable in other contexts.     

工业-环境系统的非线性描述

利用自组织的理论与方法建立了一个描述工业－环境系统时间演化的非线性动力学模型。该模型刻画了产值,环保投资,改进生产技术以及环境容量的数量关系,模型简单易于应用。本文还应用所建立的模型研究了白银地区工业发展和环境问题。     

ZrO2负载过渡金属氧化物催化剂对CO＋NO（O2）反应的影响

本文运用固定床微反技术考察了Ｃｕ,Ｆｅ,Ｍｎ,Ｃｒ,Ｃｏ和Ｎｉ负载（ＺｒＯ２载体）氧化物对ＣＯ＋ＮＯ（Ｏ２）反应的催化活性。研究了ＮＯ和ＣＯ在不同比例时,催化剂对Ｎ２Ｏ和Ｎ２生成的影响。结果表明,在ＮＯ＋ＣＯ反应中,ＮＯ和ＣＯ的比例对催化剂活性和Ｎ２Ｏ,Ｎ２生成均有明显的影响,ＣｕＯｘ／ＺｒＯ２催化剂的活性最高;Ｎ２Ｏ是ＮＯ＋ＣＯ反应的中间产物,低温或ＮＯ过量时有利于生成Ｎ２Ｏ,高温或ＮＯ不足时有     

过渡金属催化剂对邻二氯苯的催化氧化研究

以过渡金属的氧化物制得催化剂系列 ,研究其对邻二氯苯的氧化活性 ,考察反应温度、催化剂负载量、空间速度对氧化过程的影响 ,过渡金属氧化物对邻二氯苯的氧化活性顺序为 :CrOx>CuOx >VOx >MnOx >MoOx。 5wt.%V 1 0wt.%Mo3wt.%Mn/Al2 O3催化剂在 350℃时对邻二氯苯转换率达到了 90 %以上。     

Long‐Term Trends of Nutrients and Sediment from the Nontidal Chesapeake Watershed: An Assessment of Progress by River and Season

To assess historical loads of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) from the nontidal Chesapeake Bay watershed (NTCBW), we analyzed decadal seasonal trends of flow‐normalized loads at the fall‐line of nine major rivers that account for >90% of NTCBW flow. Evaluations of loads by season revealed N, P, and SS load magnitudes have been highest in January‐March and lowest in July‐September, but the temporal trends have followed similar decadal‐scale patterns in all seasons, with notable exceptions. Generally, total N (TN) load has dropped since the late 1980s, but particulate nutrients and SS have risen since the mid‐1990s. The majority of these rises were from Susquehanna River and relate to diminished net trapping at the Conowingo Reservoir. Substantial rises in SS were also observed, however, in other rivers. Moreover, the summed rise in particulate P load from other rivers is of similar magnitude as from Susquehanna. Dissolved nutrient loads have dropped in the upland (Piedmont and above) rivers, but risen in two small rivers in the Coastal Plain affected by lagged groundwater input. In addition, analysis of fractional contributions revealed consistent N trends across the upland watersheds. Finally, total N:total P ratios have declined in most rivers, suggesting the potential for changes in nutrient limitation. Overall, this integrated study of historical data highlights the value of maintaining long‐term monitoring at multiple watershed locations.