Prediction of Streamflow Regime and Annual Runoff for Ungauged Basins Using a Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model1

Moore, R.D. (Dan), J.W. Trubilowicz, and J.M. Buttle, 2011. Prediction of Streamflow Regime and Annual Runoff for Ungauged Basins Using a Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 32‐42. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00595.x Abstract: Prediction of streamflow in ungauged basins is a global challenge, but is particularly an issue in physiographically complex regions like British Columbia (BC), Canada. The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of a simple water balance model that can be run using existing spatial datasets. The model was developed by modifying an existing monthly water balance model to account for interception loss from forest canopy, glacier melt, and evaporation from lakes. The model was run using monthly climate normals from the ClimateBC application, which have a horizontal resolution of 400 m. Each ClimateBC grid cell was classified as forest, open land, glacier or water surface based on provincial scale digital maps of biogeoclimatic zones, glaciers, and water. The output was monthly mean runoff from each grid cell. These values were integrated within the catchment boundaries for streams gauged by the Water Survey of Canada. Annual runoff was predicted with modest accuracy: after updating the predicted runoff by interpolating errors from neighboring gauged streams, the mean absolute error was 25.4% of the gauged value, and 52% of the streams had errors less than 20%. However, the model appears to be quite robust in distinguishing between pluvial, hybrid, and melt‐dominated hydroclimatic regimes, and therefore has promise as a tool for catchment classification.     

System Dynamics to Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Under Water Supply Uncertainty1

Abstract: Water supply uncertainty continues to threaten the reliability of regional water resources in the western United States. Climate variability and water dispute potentials induce water managers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts. The Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in the state of Idaho is also facing these challenges in the sense that population growth and economic development strongly depend on reliable water resources from underground storage. Drought and subsequent water conflict often drive scientific research and political agendas because water resources availability and aquifer management for a sustainable rural economy are of great interest. In this study, a system dynamics approach is applied to address dynamically complex problems with management of the aquifer and associated surface‐water and groundwater interactions. Recharge and discharge dynamics within the aquifer system are coded in an environmental modeling framework to identify long‐term behavior of aquifer responses to uncertain future hydrological variability. The research shows that the system dynamics approach is a promising modeling tool to develop sustainable water resources planning and management in a collaborative decision‐making framework and also to provide useful insights and alternative opportunities for operational management, policy support, and participatory strategic planning to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts in human dimensions.     

Application of Rosgen’s BANCS Model for NE Kansas and the Development of Predictive Streambank Erosion Curves1

Sass, Christopher K. and Tim D. Keane, 2012. Application of Rosgen’s BANCS Model for NE Kansas and the Development of Predictive Streambank Erosion Curves. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 774‐787. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00644.x Abstract: Sedimentation of waterways and reservoirs directly related to streambank erosion threatens freshwater supply. This study sought to provide a tool that accurately predicts annual streambank erosion rates in NE Kansas. Rosgen (2001, 2006) methods were employed and 18 study banks were measured and monitored from 2007 through 2010 (May‐June). Bank profiles were overlaid to calculate toe pin area change due to erosional processes. Streambanks experienced varied erosion rates from similar Bank Erosion Hazard Index (BEHI)‐Near Bank Stress (NBS) combinations producing R² values of 0.77 High‐Very High BEHI rating and 0.75 Moderate BEHI rating regarding predictive erosion curves for NE Kansas. Moderate ratings demonstrated higher erosion rates than High‐Very High ratings and BEHI trend lines intersected at lower NBS ratings, suggesting a discrepancy in the fit of the model to conditions in the NE Kansas region. BEHI model factors were evaluated and assessed for additional influences exerted in the region. Woody vegetation adjacent to the stream seemed to provide the most variation in erosion rates. This study’s findings allowed us to calibrate and modify the existing BEHI model according to woody vegetation occurrence levels along streambanks with high clay content. Modifications regarding vegetation occurrence of the BEHI model was completed and the results of these modifications generated new curves resulting in R² values of 0.84 High‐Very High BEHI and 0.88 Moderate BEHI ratings.     

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Supply Stress in the Haihe River Basin,Northern China1

Ji, Yuhe, Liding Chen, and Ranhao Sun, 2012. Temporal and Spatial Variability of Water Supply Stress in the Haihe River Basin, Northern China. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(5): 999‐1007. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00671.x Abstract: Water resources are becoming increasingly stressed under the influence of climate change and population growth in the Haihe River Basin, Northern China. Assessing the temporal and spatial variability of water supply stress is urgently needed to mitigate water crisis caused by water resource reallocation. Water supply and use data were compiled for the time period of 1998‐2003 in this synthesis study. The Water Supply Stress Index (WSSI) as defined as Water Demand/Water Supply was used to quantitate whether water supply could meet the demand of human activities across the study region. We found a large spatial gradient of water supply stress in the study region, being much higher in the eastern subbasins (ranging from 2.56 to 4.31) than the west subbasins (ranging from 0.56 to 1.92). The eastern plain region not only suffered more serious water supply stress but also had a much higher interannual variability than the western hilly region. The uneven spatial distribution of water supply stress might result from the distribution of land use, population, and climate. Future climate change and rapid economic development are likely to aggravate the existing water crisis in the study region.     

Pesticide residue dynamics in passion fruits: Comparing field trial and modelling results

We evaluated the exposure to pesticides from the consumption of passion fruits and subsequent human health risks by combining several methods: (i) experimental field studies including the determination of pesticide residues in/on passion fruits, (ii) dynamic plant uptake modelling, and (iii) human health risk assessment concepts. Eight commonly used pesticides were applied onto passion fruits cultivated in Colombia. Pesticide concentrations were measured periodically (between application and harvest) in whole fruits and fruit pulp. Measured concentrations were compared with predicted residues calculated with a dynamic and crop-specific pesticide uptake model, namely dynamiCROP. The model accounts for the time between pesticide application and harvest, the time between harvest and consumption, the amount of spray deposition on plant surfaces, uptake processes, dilution due to crop growth, degradation in plant components, and reduction due to food processing (peeling). Measured and modelled residues correspond well (r² = 0.88-0.99), with all predictions falling within the 90% confidence interval of the measured values. A mean error of 43% over all studied pesticides was observed between model estimates and measurements. The fraction of pesticide applied during cultivation that is eventually ingested by humans is on average 10⁻⁴-10⁻⁶, depending on the time period between application and ingestion and the processing step considered. Model calculations and intake fractions via fruit consumption based on experimental data corresponded well for all pesticides with a deviation of less than a factor of 2. Pesticide residues in fruits measured at recommended harvest dates were all below European Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) and therefore do not indicate any violation of international regulatory thresholds.     

Evaluation of effects of exposure time on aquatic toxicity with zooplanktons using a reduced life expectancy model

Traditionally in toxicological studies time is not studied as quantifiable variable but as a fixed endpoint. The Reduced Life Expectancy (RLE) model which relates exposure time and exposure concentration with lethal toxic effects was tested previously using fish data. In this current paper the effects of exposure time on aquatic toxicity with zooplanktons and various toxicants were evaluated using the RLE model based on ambient exposure concentration. The model was evaluated by plotting ln LT₅₀ against LC₅₀ using toxicity data with zooplanktons from the literature for metal, metalloid and organic compounds. Most of the experimental data sets can be satisfactorily correlated by use of the RLE model, but deviations occurred for some data sets. Those data sets were satisfactorily fitted by a two stage RLE model. This model was based on two phases: one in the peripheral system and other in the central system. Both the single and two stage RLE model support the hypothesis that toxicity is time dependent and decreases in a systematic way with increasing exposure time. A calculated normal life expectancy (NLT) can be obtained from the single stage model and is in accord with reported NLT but those obtained from the two stage RLE model are in excellent agreement.     

Removal of tetrabromobisphenol A by conventional activated sludge, submerged membrane and membrane aerated biofilm reactors

The goal of this study was to compare removal efficiencies of tetrabromobisphenol A (TBBPA) using typical wastewater treatment technologies, and to identify the most significant mechanisms of removal. Two types of municipal wastewater reactors were studied: a full-scale conventional activated sludge (CAS) reactor with tertiary treatment; and three pilot-scale membrane bioreactors (MBRs) having different sludge retention times (SRTs). All four reactors were fed the same influent. A third reactor type, a membrane aerated biofilm reactor (MABR) was fed tap water, ammonia, and TBBPA. TBBPA in municipal influent ranged from 1 to 41 ng L⁻¹ (n = 10). The CAS effluent had an average TBBPA concentration of 0.7 ± 1.3 ng L⁻¹ (n = 3). Effluent concentrations from the MBRs were an average of 6 ± 6 ng L⁻¹ TBBPA (n = 26). Significant TBBPA removal was observed in the MABR throughout the 5 week of study (p ? 0.05). Removal of TBBPA from wastewater treatment was found to be due to a combination of adsorption and biological degradation. Based on experimental results, nitrification is likely a key process therein. No significant relationship between removal of TBBPA and SRT was identified (p ? 0.05).     

k-C*模型的人工湿地模拟研究

采用自由表面流人工湿地,对广东省中山市某小区对应段的河涌进行生态修复改造。基于k-C*模型的计算结果表明,在对现有河涌的面积的利用下,TP和NH4+-N的去除效果受到限制。采用多因素正交实验对模型的计算结果进行实验验证和分析,研究了4种植物、4种基质,分别在2、4、6和8 d水力停留时间(HRT)下对TP和NH4+-N的去除效果,得到影响TP和NH4+-N去除效果的因素主次顺序分别为基质→植物→HRT和基质→HRT→植物;各因素的最佳水平条件分别为:风车草、颗粒活性炭、4 d(HRT)。在最佳水平条件下进行实验,结果表明,TP和NH4+-N的浓度均可达到出水排放标准浓度指标。k-C*模型的计算值总是比实验值偏高,但两者之间的误差在一个数量级范围内。     

以羟胺为底物的自养脱氮微量热研究

羟胺（NH₂OH）是单级自养脱氮系统物质转化的重要中间产物。从稳定运行（氨氮去除率维持90%以上,总氮去除率维持在80%以上）的单级自养脱氮工艺（SBBR）取活性污泥放入量热池,加入不同浓度N-NH₂OH（40～200 mg/L）进行量热实验研究。结果表明,用Boltzmann模型可以很好地表达量热值与NH₂OH浓度的关系,超过一定浓度的羟胺会抑制微生物活性,自营养脱氮过程的产热增量降低。     

交叉上市公司社会责任缺陷披露的市场反应——基于紫金矿业突发渗漏环保事故的案例研究

伴随着工业化进程加快,社会责任缺失现象日益严重,各类企业违法违规事故层出不穷,其中不乏国有大型控股公司,这种现象引起了投资者、监管机构等利益相关者的广泛关注。在此背景下,研究资本市场对上市公司社会责任缺陷披露的反应具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文以交叉上市的紫金矿业为例,采用事项研究法,检验了A股和H股市场对紫金矿业集团股份有限公司发布的一系列有关紫金山铜矿湿法厂污水池突发渗漏环保事故重要公告的市场反应,并比较了两地市场对同一公告的反应差异。研究发现:两地市场对重大事故公告均提前预知并呈负面反应,在公告前A股市场反应程度大于H股市场,公告发布后H股市场投资者更加敏感;两地市场对董事会(临时)决议公告呈正面反应,但H股市场投资者更加谨慎;对处罚公告两市反应不同,A股市场未对处罚公告作出反应,H股市场对处罚公告呈负面反应;总体而言,H股市场与A股市场反应程度存在显著差异。