不同粒级的煤胶体对汞的吸附动力学

为了解煤胶体对汞的吸附动力学特性,采用沉降法和离心法提取由霍林河采集煤样中的煤胶体（0~2、2~5、5~10 μm）,采用批量实验对不同粒径和不同温度下,煤胶体对汞的吸附动力学特性进行了研究。结果表明：煤胶体对汞的吸附反应为吸热反应,以化学吸附为主,其吸附动力学过程可用准二级动力学方程和双室模型很好的描述。煤胶体对汞的平衡吸附量随粒径的减小和温度的升高而逐渐增大,不同粒径煤胶体受温度影响的大小关系为（5~10）μm > （2~5）μm > （0~2）μm。煤胶体对汞的吸附从初始阶段到达到表观平衡,快速吸附均占据优势。在表观平衡时,粒径越大,快速吸附的贡献率越小。煤胶体对汞的吸附反应速率随温度升高和粒径减小而增大。温度越高、粒径越小,快速吸附速率越大;而慢速吸附速率则随温度升高和粒径增大而增大。汞在0~2 μm和2~5 μm煤胶体上的吸附过程,粒内扩散是其主要控速步骤;而对于5~10 μm的煤胶体,膜扩散是主要控速步骤。     

Migration of colloids in discretely fractured porous media: effect of colloidal matrix diffusion

Numerical simulations of colloid transport in discretely fractured porous media were performed to investigate the importance of matrix diffusion of colloids as well as the filtration and remobilization of colloidal particles in both the fractures and porous matrix. To achieve this objective a finite element numerical code entitled COLDIFF was developed. The processes that COLDIFF takes into account include advective-dispersive transport of colloids, filtration and remobilization of colloidal particles in both fractures and porous matrix, and diffusive interactions of colloids between the fractures and porous matrix. Three sets of simulations were conducted to examine the importance of parameters and processes controlling colloid migration. First, a sensitivity analysis was performed using a porous block containing a single fracture to determine the relative importance of various phenomenological coefficients on colloid transport. The primary result of the analysis showed that the porosity of the matrix and the process of colloid filtration in fractures play important roles in controlling colloid migration. Second, simulations were performed to replicate and examine the results of a laboratory column study using a fractured shale saprolite. Results of this analysis showed that the filtration of colloidal particles in the porous matrix can greatly affect the tailing of colloid concentrations after the colloid source was removed. Finally, field-scale simulations were performed to examine the effect of matrix porosity, fracture filtration and fracture remobilization on long-term colloid concentration and migration distance. The field scale simulations indicated that matrix diffusion and fracture filtration can significantly reduce colloid migration distance. Results of all three analyses indicated that in environments where porosity is relatively high and colloidal particles are small enough to diffuse out of fractures, the characteristics of the porous matrix that affect colloid transport become more important than those of the fracture network. Because the properties of the fracture network tend to have greater uncertainty due to difficulties in their measurement relative to those of the porous matrix, prediction uncertainties associated with colloid transport in discretely fractured porous media may be reduced.     

曝气生物滤池去除有机物与反应常数及膜厚的关系

推导了BAF前置反硝化工艺简化动力学模型,揭示了BAF去除有机物与反应速率常数与膜厚的关系。同时以生物膜中活性物质与非活性物质增长生物数学模型体系为基础,从理论上推导了BAF最佳膜厚的范围。     

建筑工程生产事故死亡人数时间序列分析

为研究建筑工程安全生产事故死亡人数的变化规律,采用时间序列分析方法,分析了建筑安全事故死亡人数时间序列上的趋势性规律,通过数据预处理和模型的识别与检验,最终建立了安全事故死亡人数预测模型。对全国2005—2014年建筑工程安全生产事故造成的死亡人数进行了分析和预测。结果表明:ARIMA模型各年预测值与实际值误差率为0.393,相比灰色模型和BP神经网络模型误差率最小。总体上说,ARIMA模型较适用于随机性较大的数据的趋势预测。     

Occupational risks and the value and modelling of a measurement of severity

In studies of occupational risks, severity, which is a component of the estimation of every risk, appears as a multifaceted entity assessable according to numerous criteria. A method of measuring the degree of severity of the consequences of potentially dangerous events would be of undeniable value to organisations seeking to improve their understanding of the complexity of such events. The need to control severity is highlighted by scientifically acquired improvements in the understanding of occupational risks, by certain new regulatory obligations in Europe, and by some requirements in the financial management of organisations. We put forward a statistical way of integrating several constituent elements of severity and hence of determining a relevant, synthetic, one-dimensional index. This is achieved by means of principal component analysis (PCA), which is used here to calculate a resultant severity, as in some physical measurements. We also investigate how severity may be statistically modelled, with the aim of contributing to the quantitative assessment of occupational risks. The choice of parametric models is detailed and illustrated by the search for a suitable model for workplace accidents in an organisational setting. The practical value of modelling severity is two-fold. First, one is able to study the distribution of the numerical values of severity over a continuum (a theoretically infinite numerical set) rather than through a limited number of arbitrarily defined categories. Second, with a generally applicable parametric model, one can estimate the law of probability of a measurement of severity in a particular situation, notably recent or new. Lastly, the statistical concept of risk curve is defined and discussed. The goal is to incorporate the severity component into the risk assessment in the form of a probability law, thus circumventing the difficulties associated with an analysis of scenarios.     

道路交通事故的影响因素研究——基于结构方程模型的实证研究

使用Amos建立了31个省市道路交通事故的结构方程,SEM道路交通结构模型选用了潜变量交通事故、人口素质、经济因子和车辆道路,每个潜变量包含三至五个指标观察变量,所有数据均通过信度检验。SEM道路交通结构模型采用bootstrap Stine p估计加以修正卡方值,通过了适配性检验和显著性检验,并拟合好全部路径系数、潜变量因子得分权重等,以此可计算得31个省市道路交通事故得分和排名,实证结果与31个省市道路交通事故实际情况相符,最后根据分析得出了影响道路交通事故的因素,并有针对性地提出了相关政策建议。     

安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型

为发展安全科学原理和给事故防控与调查提供新的方法,根据变化对系统安全的影响机制,开展安全降变原理及事故致因新模型研究。首先,提出安全降变原理并解析其内涵及研究意义。其次,基于安全降变原理,给出不同层级安全系统变化的分类实例,并对作业场所事故及其致因重新定义和分类。再次,构建基于安全降变原理的C-S-R事故致因新模型。最后,基于事故案例分析,验证所提出的C-S-R事故致因新模型与安全降变原理的有效性。结果表明,各级安全系统中自发或是受联动的变化超出系统的变化承受水平时,将导致事故的发生。经事故案例分析验证可知,安全降变原理及C-S-R事故致因新模型具有充分的实用性。     

基于PSR模型的城市生态安全评价与贡献度研究——以铜川市为例

以铜川市为例进行城市生态安全评价和指标分析,采用压力-状态-响应模型和层次分析法构建出含有项目、因素、指标的铜川市生态安全评价体系。通过生态不安全指数定量表示城市的生态安全状况,对铜川市2014-2016年的生态安全状况进行了综合评价,并计算分析了各指标对城市总体生态不安全指数的贡献度。结果表明,铜川市的生态安全处于“临界安全”状态,并呈现逐渐向好的发展趋势。人均灌溉农田面积、地表水环境质量、环境空气质量和环保投资占GDP比例对铜川市生态不安全指数贡献度较大,应给予重视。     

Corrosion failure probability analysis of buried gas pipelines based on subset simulation

Corrosion is the main reason for the failure of buried gas pipelines. For effective corrosion failure probability analysis, the structural reliability theory was adopted in this study to establish two calculation models for pipeline corrosion failure: the pressure failure model and von Mises stress failure model. Then, two calculation models for the corrosion failure probability were established based on a corrosion depth growth model obtained from actual survey data of soil corrosion characteristics. In an example, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and subset simulation (SS) were used to analyze the corrosion failure probability of pipelines, and the results were compared. SS can compensate for the shortcomings of MCS as it has higher computational efficiency and accuracy. Therefore, SS was adopted to simulate variations in the corrosion failure probability of buried pipelines with the service time for the two failure probability calculation models, which were applied to a natural gas pipeline located in a chemical industry park in Zhuhai, China. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the relevant parameters that affect the failure probability. The results showed that multiple loads caused by the covering soil, residual stress, temperature differential, and bending stress have a non-negligible effect on the pipeline reliability. The corrosion coefficients gradually become the most important factors that affect the failure probability with increased service time. The proposed methodology considers the actual operating conditions of pipelines to provide a reliable theoretical basis for integrity management.     

基于改进辐射模型的乡镇人口流动网络研究

乡镇尺度的人口流动联系和空间结构研究对统筹区域城镇体系规划和产业结构调整具有重要意义.本文以复杂网络理论为研究视角,将空间可达性引入传统辐射模型进行参数修正,构建乡镇人口流动网络;从节点和社团结构以及无标度和小世界特征等方面,探讨在地域差异影响下人口流动的空间分布格局和复杂网络特征,并以荆门市55个乡镇为例进行实证研究.结果表明:①荆门市乡镇人口流动网络的节点度分布以高发展水平乡镇为核心,呈现“一横二纵”的空间分异格局,与荆门市城镇体系和产业布局存在极强的耦合关系;②全网包含四个社团,各社团内部联系紧密且空间结构特征各异,社团间联系相对松散.③受空间距离和地理环境影响,网络的无标度特征不够明显;④网络具有一定的小世界特征,整体联通性和局部集聚性较好.本文通过对传统模型进行方法改进,实现了异质空间下乡镇人口流动联系及分布的可视化表达,实例研究结果可为荆门市城镇规划和产业布局提供决策思路.