中国新克强指数的构建与实证分析

随着中国经济进入新常态,英国《经济学人》杂志构建的克强指数已无法反映中国经济的全貌,如何客观地反映中国经济的真实状况成为一个迫切需要解决的现实问题。为更好地测度中国经济运行的真实状况,本文根据李克强总理提出的"未来会更加关注就业、居民收入和生态环境的持续改善"的愿景,在原有克强指数的基础上,增加年末就业人员数、农村居民家庭人均纯收入、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入等就业和收入方面的指标,使用中国1995—2015年的相关数据和层次分析法构建了克强指数的修订版本即新克强指数,并将新克强指数与GDP增长率、克强指数进行了比较,发现新克强指数在反映中国经济波动和经济整体运行状态上有更为优良的性质。与GDP增长率相比,新克强指数克服了服务业比重提高带来的熨平效应,进而灵敏地反映中国经济波动情况,并对异常事件更加具有敏感性。相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数破除了因中国在第二产业上存在失衡性发展所带来的经济波动的杠杆效应,降低了经济增长中的虚假成分,从而与中国经济运行的整体关联度更为密切。此外,相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数在反映经济景气方面有着较好的时效性与关联性。采用时差相关分析法对新克强指数与宏观经济指标之间的关系进行分析,发现新克强指数在反映第一产业增加值、第三产业增加值、最终消费支出、资本形成总额、对外贸易、通货膨胀等方面具有优势。研究表明:新克强指数是更适宜测度中国经济的多元评价指标,为测度中国经济运行的真实状况提供了科学的参考依据。     

山东半岛城市群人居环境质量综合评价

随着中国城市化的高速发展,"城市病"问题日益突出,城市群作为统筹区域协调发展、建设宜居人居环境的重点地区,其人居环境发展状况备受关注。基于此,本文以山东半岛城市群为例,从人文环境、经济环境、社会环境和生态环境4个方面构建人居环境质量综合评价指标体系,利用人居环境质量计算模型和系统协调度模型,对其人居环境质量进行静态定量化评价和动态综合性评价。研究表明:(1)山东半岛城市群人居环境质量与社会环境的关联性最大,经济实力、基础设施水平时空发展不均衡、地域差异大,是制约山东半岛城市群人居环境发展的突出问题。(2)2000—2014年山东半岛城市群人居环境综合水平呈现良好的上升趋势,且增速较稳,增幅较小;各要素间的协调性均达到了中级协调等级;系统层的评价值除人文环境外,均呈现不同程度的波动式上升态势;领域层的评价值差异明显,发展不均衡。(3)城市群内部各城市人居环境综合质量水平逐步提高,且排名相对稳定;各要素间的协调度等级差异较小,但起伏变化较大;人居环境质量时空分异特征明显,呈现东西高、中间低的格局,内部级别差异显著,可分为较好、一般、较差、差4个等级。在今后的发展中,应针对山东半岛不同城市人居环境问题采取因时因地制宜的协调对策,创造整体最优人居环境。不仅要提高城市群的整体经济水平,提升城市群的短板建设,推动人居环境协调发展,还要符合新常态下城市发展与建设的要求,加快山东半岛城市群的区域创新体系构建,科学引领产业转型升级,优化产业结构,加强山东半岛城市规划研究与实施力度,探索"多规合一"模式。     

How to Constrain Multi‐Objective Calibrations of the SWAT Model Using Water Balance Components

Accurate discharge simulation is one of the most common objectives of hydrological modeling studies. However, a good simulation of discharge is not necessarily the result of a realistic simulation of hydrological processes within the catchment. We propose an evaluation framework that considers both discharge and water balance components as evaluation criteria for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this study, we integrated average annual values of surface runoff, groundwater flow, and evapotranspiration in the model evaluation procedure to constrain the selection of good model runs for the Little River Experimental Watershed in Georgia, United States. For evaluating water balance and discharge dynamics, the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS) were used. In addition, the ratio of root mean square error and standard deviation of measured data (RSR) was calculated for individual segments of the flow duration curve to identify the best model runs in terms of discharge magnitude. Our results indicate that good statistics for discharge do not guarantee realistic simulations of individual water balance components. Therefore, we recommend constraining the ranges of water balance components to achieve a more realistic simulation of the entire hydrological system, even if tradeoffs between good statistics for discharge simulations and reasonable amounts of the water balance components are unavoidable. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Constraining SWAT Calibration with Remotely Sensed Evapotranspiration Data

Historically, many watershed studies have been based on using the streamflow flux, typically from a single gauge at the basin's outlet, to support calibration. In this setting, there is great potential for equifinality of parameters during the optimization process, especially for parameters that are not directly related to streamflow. Therefore, some of the optimal parameter values achieved during the autocalibration process may be physically unrealistic. In recent decades a vast array of data from land surface models and remote sensing platforms can help to constrain hydrologic fluxes such as evapotranspiration (ET). While the spatial resolution of these ancillary datasets varies, the continuous spatial coverage of these gridded datasets provides flux measurements across the entire basin, in stark contrast to point‐based streamflow data. This study uses Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Model data to constrain Soil and Water Assessment Tool parameter values associated with ET to a more physically realistic range. The study area is the Little Washita River Experimental Watershed, in southern Oklahoma. Traditional objective metrics such as the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients record no performance improvement after application of this method. However, there is a dramatic increase in the number of days with receding flow where simulations match observed streamflow.     

Hydrothermal liquefaction phase behavior of microalgae & model compounds in fused silica capillary reactor

A fused silica capillary reactor combined with a heating/cooling stage, a microscope and a digital camera were used to investigate phase behavior during the hydrothermal liquefaction of microalgae (Dunaliella tertiolecta) and model compounds, including soya protein and glycine, starch, glucose and xylose, stearic acid and palmitic acid. Bubbles were generated at 246°C and disappeared at 360°C upon heating when Dunaliella tertiolecta used as feedstocks. Moreover, liquid products were generated at 300°C upon heating and oily liquid products began to separate out at 250°C upon cooling. The phase behavior of soya protein was similar to that of the Dunaliella tertiolecta. Meanwhile, there only observed the bubbles generation during hydrothermal liquefaction of glycine. Heating the starch, glucose and xylose above 350°C generated black solids from carbonization. Stearic acid and palmitic acid only had the process of melting, dissolution, dispersion and precipitation.     

Comparison of the daily global solar radiation from different data sources in Northwest China climate

The solar radiation data are of high importance to the solar energy systems. Conventional methods to obtain the solar radiation data are from weather stations, solar radiation models, commercial software databases, and field measurements. In the present study, a new daily global solar radiation model is proposed, by combining the quadratic function of sunshine fraction and sine function of the day of the year. The solar radiation model calculated data are then compared with China Meteorological Data Sharing System (CMDSS) data, TRNSYS data, and field-measured data in Northwest China climate. It is found that the newly proposed solar radiation model has better performance than the other nine solar radiation models in the literature. The solar radiation model calculated data fit well with the CMDSS annually average data. The TRNSYS data are a bit larger than the CMDSS annually average data in summer half year and a little smaller than those in winter half year. The solar radiation model and the CMDSS annually average data have the best correlation, whereas the TRNSYS data and the field-measured data have the worst correlation. The solar radiation model calculated data have the best correlation with the other three data sources.     

Green and compatible industrial development in Western China

Western China has lagged a lot in terms of industrial structure and economic development,compared with the national average.And China announced its target of CO_2 emission reduction,i.e.by 2020,CO_2 emission per GDP will drop by40-45%compared with 2005.The target will be incorporated into China's long-term industrial planning.Against this background,this paper will make a comprehensive examination of the industrial development of Western China,aiming to discover a green and compatible way.First,we analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of regional industrial structure for the period 2000-2010.Second,we try to discover the industrial structure optimization path for Western China by employing the Vector Auto Regression model.Lastly,we try to provide some advice and suggestions for further industrial development in Western China.Our examination shows that further industrial development in Western China should pay full attention to resource conservation and recycling,and develop on a green and compatible path.     

运用改进综合评分法筛选典型污染物的研究——以大武水源地地下水典型污染物筛选为例

结合潜在危害指数法和综合评分法筛选大武水源地地下水典型污染物。鉴于潜在危害指数法不考虑污染物的环境浓度,将潜在危害指数作为综合评分法的评价指标之一,同时引进污染物的检出频率、生物降解性、生物累积性、研究区是否有污染源检出、是否为环境激素、是否为美国环境保护署(EPA)优先有机污染物、是否为中国优先污染物、是否为持久性有机污染物等指标,计算不同污染物的综合得分,再通过聚类分析,筛选出典型污染物。研究结果表明,大武水源地地下水典型污染物为三氯甲烷、三氯乙烯、四氯乙烯、四氯化碳和苯。     

一株抗Cd~（2＋）菌株的筛选及其吸附性能

Cd2＋为一种毒性金属元素,为了实际解决污水中低浓度重金属污染,实现污水达标排放,通过12C6＋重离子束辐照诱变技术筛选到一株耐受Cd2＋的菌株C2,研究其对Cd2＋的抗性和低浓度Cd2＋的吸附性能表明,Cd2＋浓度≤100 mg/L时,C2菌株可以生长繁殖,但随Cd2＋浓度升高受到抑制;SEM分析表明,受到Cd2＋胁迫时,C2产生大量胞外产物与Cd2＋形成络合物;吸附过程中菌粉表面空隙得到填充,形成凸起;红外光谱分析表明,吸附过程中的主要作用基团为醇羟基O—H键、氨基和酰胺基团;C2菌粉和固定化菌球都对Cd2＋有较好的吸附能力,菌粉吸附效果比固定化菌球稍好;菌粉和固定化吸附剂的最佳吸附初始pH值为5~6.0,最佳投加量分别为1.0 g/L和10 g/L（实际含菌量为1.0 g/L）;Cd2＋浓度在2~20mg/L时,在最佳吸附条件下,菌粉和固定化吸附剂对Cd2＋的吸附率均在90%左右;2种吸附剂吸附过程与Langmuir等温模型和拟二级动力学模型拟合最佳;热力学研究表明吸附反应均能自发进行。以上研究结果表明,C2菌粉和固定化吸附剂均可用于污水中低浓度Cd2＋的去除。     

电渗透脱水污泥干燥特性曲线及干燥模型

通过电渗透脱水技术及自然风干技术两种预处理方式降低污泥含水率,当污泥初始含水率相近时,研究经两种方式处理后污泥的干燥特性曲线,并对电渗透脱水污泥干燥特性曲线的优势情况进行探讨。在40—120℃的低温条件下,研究电渗透脱水污泥（泥饼厚度为3．5mm）的干燥特性曲线并分析其干燥特性。通过所得电渗透脱水污泥的干燥特性曲线,引人薄层污泥干燥模型进行数值分析。结果表明,在实验条件下,电渗透脱水污泥的干燥速率要优于自然风干污泥的干燥速率。随着温度的升高,电渗透脱水污泥的干燥速率随之升高,干燥到所需含水率的时间则随之减少。Logarithmic模型比其他模型更适合描述薄层电渗透脱水污泥在低温条件下的干燥特性。