CONTINUOUS SIMULATION OF RECEIVING WATER QUALITY TRANSIENTS1

: This paper presents solutions to the one-dimensional, transient conservation of mass equations for the coupled biochemical oxygen demand-dissolved oxygen (BOD-DO) reactions, based on the principle of superposition, for continuously discharging plane sources. The solutions are applied within the framework of a continuous simulation model to allow the derivation of water quality frequency curves and frequency histograms of consecutive hourly dissolved oxygen violations, for any desired standard. Receiving water response is determined for waste inputs from urban wet weather, dry weather, and upstream sources. An application to Des Moines, Iowa, and Des Moines River indicated that urban storm water impacts on the stream can be masked in the cumulative frequency curve representation, but the benefits of storm water control are clearly shown in frequency histograms of the duration of consecutive stream standard violations.     

Evaluating the ability of habitat suitability models to predict species presences

Models predicting species spatial distribution are increasingly applied to wildlife management issues, emphasising the need for reliable methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions. As many available datasets (e.g. museums, herbariums, atlas) do not provide reliable information about species absences, several presence-only based analyses have been developed. However, methods to evaluate the accuracy of their predictions are few and have never been validated. The aim of this paper is to compare existing and new presence-only evaluators to usual presence/absence measures.     

华南退化生态系统三种典型生态恢复模式的小气候效应研究

为了评价南亚热带典型退化生态系统典型生态恢复模式的小气候调节效应,从而为退化生态系统生态恢复方式和造林树种的选择提供参照,作者在广东鹤山森林生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站的3种典型生态恢复模式样地,自然恢复草坡、马尾松林（Pinus massoniana）、马占相思林（Acacia mangium）中安装了HOBO小气候仪,对光辐射、风速风向、降水、土壤含水量、地温、气温等小气候指标进行为期1年的自动观测,并进行了对比分析,结果表明,（1）华南退化生态系统3种典型生态恢复模式具有不同的小气候效应,在林间温度调节方面,人工林和草坡的平均林间温度相差不大,但草坡的最低、最高温度均比人工林低和高。人工林的林间温度变化较草坡小,具有更好的保温调节作用。对比2种人工林,不管是平均温度还是最高温度马占相思林都略大于针叶林,而二者最低温度相差不明显。针叶林的保温调节作用略优于阔叶的马占相思林;（2）在土壤温度方面,地表温度全年基本都表现为草坡〉马占相思林〉针叶林,草坡的地表温度的波动远大于2种人工林;全年20 cm土壤温度3─12月都表现为草坡〉马占相思林〉针叶林,1─2月相反,草坡20 cm土层的土壤温度波动相对较大,人工林的波动很小。（3）3种恢复模式中,自然恢复草坡的辐射强度明显高于2种人工林,年辐射总量分别马占相思林和针叶林的1.9和5.8倍,马占相思林的年辐射量为针叶林的3倍。人工林,特别是乡土的针叶林能给林下生物构建更为稳定、适中的辐射环境。（4）人工林的平均林间风速、最大阵风风速均少于草坡,针叶林的风速小于阔叶林,针叶林降低风速的效果好于相思林和草坡。（5）人工林的林间相对湿度均高于草坡,针叶林的林间空气湿度略大于相思林,针叶林的保湿效果更好。在退化生态系统恢复过程中?     

健康风险评估方法在中国重金属污染中的应用及暴露评估模型的研究进展

经济的快速发展导致中国环境质量日趋恶化.随着健康意识的增强,人们越来越重视污染物暴露人群的健康风险评估.与其他污染物相比,重金属污染区域广,重金属暴露人群多且集中.为了研究重金属暴露条件下人群的健康风险,USEPA 模型、统计模型、地理信息系统、可给性研究的方法已被中国不同学者应用.暴露评估模型作为污染物暴露人群健康风险评估的主要环节,国外的研究已经比较成熟,但相关研究在中国还处于空白阶段.对中国近年来在城市表层土壤（灰尘）、矿区土壤、膳食、地下水和饮用水、大气颗粒物进行重金属风险评估中应用的健康风险评估方法,进行了归纳和评述,并对欧美常用暴露评估模型：环境暴露评估模型、膳食暴露评估模型进行了介绍.中国健康风险评估工作起步晚,在评估的各环节均存在很大缺陷.随着新技术的发展以及人群对环境健康风险认识的深化,健康风险评估将成为中国热门研究领域之一.污染的环境行为、剂量一效应关系、模型、风险信息等方面,将是未来中国健康风险评估研究的重点.     

环境污染和生态破坏经济损失的估算模型

应用江苏省1988—2002年时序数据,建立环境污染与生态破坏经济损失的宏观估算模型,对影响环境污染与生态破坏的限制因子进行定量分析评价。     

Regression models for octanol‐water partition coefficients,and for bioconcentration in fish

Octanol‐water partition coefficients (P) of a number of organochlorine insecticides (OCs) are presented. The merits of log‐log regressions between experimental ? values and calculated estimates of P, solute activity coefficients in water, solute molecular surface area data, and reversed‐phase liquid‐chromatographic net retention data, are critically evaluated for several classes of pollutants: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), chlorinated benzenes, chlorinated biphenyls and OCs. Special attention is paid to the predictive accuracy of such semi‐empirical regressions in connection with possible effects of solute molecular shape and polarity.

Finally, bioconcentration and ‐accumulation of hydrophobic pollutants in fish are briefly discussed.     

The representation of cyanobacteria life cycle processes in aquatic ecosystem models

Two simplified versions of a numerical life cycle model for diazotrophic cyanobacteria (of the order Nostocales) are developed and evaluated. Both consider two-life cycle stages, one growing, nitrogen-fixing stage and one stage that combines the resting, germinating and vegetative stages. The versions differ in the vertical resolution of the non-diazotrophic stage: version 1 collects the biomass in one layer at the bottom, version 2 considers sinking and rising of biomass explicitly. The results of the two versions are compared with a complex cyanobacteria life cycle model which describes four different life cycle stages each with two internal quotas for energy and nitrogen. The two simplified approaches show a good agreement with respect to the main characteristics of cyanobacteria dynamics (timing and duration of blooms, magnitude of nitrogen fixation, interannual variability). Our model study shows that both simplified approaches are suitable to be implemented into three-dimensional coastal or lake models.     

An Integrated Monte Carlo Methodology for the calibration of water quality models

This paper proposes an Integrated Monte Carlo Methodology (IMCM) to solve the parameter estimation problem in water quality models. The methodology is based on Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and it operates by means of four modules: Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Moving Feasible Ranges (MFR), Statistical Analysis of the Joint Posterior Distribution (SAD) and Uncertainty Propagation Analysis (UPA). The main innovation of the new proposal lies in the combination of MCMC and MFR modules which provides the joint posterior distribution of the calibrated parameters following the classical Bayesian approach. While MCMC module, based on Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm, is specially designed to sample complex joint posterior shapes within certain parameter ranges, the MFR readjusts these ranges until the coverage of the feasible parameter space is guaranteed. Once the joint posterior distribution is properly defined, the SAD provides the parameter statistics and the UPA performs an analysis of the uncertainty propagation through the model. The possibilities of the new proposal have been tested on the basis of a simple model featuring different activated sludge batch experiments. IMCM has been implemented in Matlab and it is prepared to be easily connected to any software package.