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211.
We develop a Bayesian model–based approach to finite population estimation accounting for spatial dependence. Our innovation here is a framework that achieves inference for finite population quantities in spatial process settings. A key distinction from the small area estimation setting is that we analyze finite populations referenced by their geographic coordinates. Specifically, we consider a two‐stage sampling design in which the primary units are geographic regions, the secondary units are point‐referenced locations, and the measured values are assumed to be a partial realization of a spatial process. Estimation of finite population quantities from geostatistical models does not account for sampling designs, which can impair inferential performance, whereas design‐based estimates ignore the spatial dependence in the finite population. We demonstrate by using simulation experiments that process‐based finite population sampling models improve model fit and inference over models that fail to account for spatial correlation. Furthermore, the process‐based models offer richer inference with spatially interpolated maps over the entire region. We reinforce these improvements and demonstrate scalable inference for groundwater nitrate levels in the population of California Central Valley wells by offering estimates of mean nitrate levels and their spatially interpolated maps. 相似文献
212.
In this work, we introduce a model for circular data analysis to robustly estimate parameters, under a longitudinal clustering setting. A hidden Markov model for longitudinal circular data combined with a uniform conditional density on the circle to capture noise observations is proposed. A set of exogenous covariates is available; they are assumed to affect the evolution of clustering over time. Parameter estimation is carried out through a hybrid expectation–maximization algorithm, using recursions widely adopted in the hidden Markov model literature. Examples of application of the proposal on real and simulated data are performed to show the effectiveness of the proposal. 相似文献
213.
Color is one of the most important features in any textile material. Due to its competitive price, most of the colorants currently used for textile dyeing are synthetic, originated from nonrenewable sources, and highly pollutant. There is an increasing interest for natural processes to dye fabrics. When new textile dyeing technologies are developed, evaluating the quality of these techniques involves measuring the resulting color homogeneity using digital images. The presence of a texture effect, caused by the interlacing of warp and weft yarns, as well as small displacement of the fabric, creates a sophisticated dependence structure in pixels coloring. A random effects model is employed in order to separate the signal from the dyeing effect (fixed effect described by smooth functions) and warp and weft texture effect (Gaussian mixture driven by a hidden Markov random field), allowing an evaluation of color homogeneity in dyed textiles regardless of the effect of the texture. 相似文献
214.
Human perception of risks related to economic damages caused by nearby wildlife can be transmitted through social networks. Understanding how sharing risk information within a human community alters the spatial dynamics of human-wildlife interactions has important implications for the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. We developed an agent-based model that simulates farmer livelihood decisions and activities in an agricultural landscape shared with a population of a generic wildlife species (wildlife-human interactions in shared landscapes [WHISL]). In the model, based on risk perception and economic information, farmers decide how much labor to allocate to farming and whether and where to exclude wildlife from their farms (e.g., through fencing, trenches, or vegetation thinning). In scenarios where the risk perception of farmers was strongly influenced by other farmers, exclusion of wildlife was widespread, resulting in decreased quality of wildlife habitat and frequency of wildlife damages across the landscape. When economic losses from encounters with wildlife were high, perception of risk increased and led to highly synchronous behaviors by farmers in space and time. Interactions between wildlife and farmers sometimes led to a spillover effect of wildlife damage displaced from socially and spatially connected communities to less connected neighboring farms. The WHISL model is a useful conservation-planning tool because it provides a test bed for theories and predictions about human-wildlife dynamics across a range of different agricultural landscapes. 相似文献
215.
Stakeholder support is vital for achieving conservation success, yet there are few reliable mechanisms to monitor stakeholder attitudes toward conservation. Approaches used to assess attitudes rarely account for bias arising from reporting error, which can lead to falsely reporting a positive attitude toward conservation (false-positive error) or not reporting a positive attitude when the respondent has a positive attitude toward conservation (false-negative error). Borrowing from developments in applied conservation science, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify stakeholder attitudes as the probability of having a positive attitude toward wildlife notionally (or in abstract terms) and at localized scales while accounting for reporting error. We compared estimates from our model, Likert scores, and naïve estimates (i.e., proportion of respondents reporting a positive attitude in at least 1 question that was only susceptible to false-negative error) with true stakeholder attitudes through simulations. We then applied the model in a survey of tea estate staff on their attitudes toward Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in the Kaziranga–Karbi Anglong landscape of northeast India. In simulations, Bayesian model estimates of stakeholder attitudes toward wildlife were less biased than naïve estimates or Likert scores. After accounting for reporting errors, we estimated the probability of having a positive attitude toward elephants notionally as 0.85 in the Kaziranga landscape, whereas the proportion of respondents who had positive attitudes toward elephants at a localized scale was 0.50. In comparison, without accounting for reporting errors, naïve estimates of proportions of respondents with positive attitudes toward elephants were 0.69 and 0.23 notionally and at local scales, respectively. False (positive and negative) reporting probabilities were consistently not 0 (0.22–0.68). Regular and reliable assessment of stakeholder attitudes–combined with inference on drivers of positive attitudes–can help assess the success of initiatives aimed at facilitating human behavioral change and inform conservation decision making. 相似文献
216.
Mark E. Eiswerth G. Cornelis van Kooten 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2019,55(5):1335-1348
Given the expansion of payments for water‐based ecosystem services (PWES) worldwide, two relevant issues are as follows: (1) determination of efficient allocations of payments among land managers, and (2) how this might change when paying one manager to implement a best management practice (BMP) to enhance an ecosystem service impacts the cost‐effectiveness of BMPs considered by other land managers not currently involved in PWES. Such externalities may be negative if diminishing returns dominate, or positive if mechanisms such as “social diffusion” dominate. We analyze how a planner should optimally allocate payments, depending on whether the expected externalities are negligible, negative, or positive. We employ (1) an optimal control model to gain insights on the problem’s dynamics, and (2) stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal funding strategies using a specific application. The study contributes to the literature by identifying dynamically optimal PWES payment patterns, and illustrates how they should change when one accounts for externalities induced by the program. Because such impacts have not been addressed previously in a rigorous way, this treatment provides useful value added for PWES design and implementation. 相似文献
217.
湖泊富营养化和水华暴发已经成为突出的环境问题之一,了解水华对湖泊氮素的转化和去除的影响,对于削减湖泊氮负荷至关重要.本文研究了水华对沉积物中氮转化和氮转化相关功能基因的影响,并采用结构方程模型分析了水华影响湖泊中氮转化和去除的途径.结果表明,与厌氧氨氧化相比,反硝化作用是太湖沉积物氮削减的主要途径,对沉积物中总溶解性氮去除率的解释度为42. 3%.水华可以直接造成沉积物中TDN和TOC量的增加,提高厌氧氨氧化菌、nir S和nir K的基因丰度,并且间接提高沉积物中氨氮和硝酸盐的浓度,通过增强厌氧氨氧化和反硝化过程加速沉积物中氮的去除. 相似文献
218.
Qiusheng Wu Charles R. Lane Lei Wang Melanie K. Vanderhoof Jay R. Christensen Hongxing Liu 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2019,55(2):354-368
In terrain analysis and hydrological modeling, surface depressions (or sinks) in a digital elevation model (DEM) are commonly treated as artifacts and thus filled and removed to create a depressionless DEM. Various algorithms have been developed to identify and fill depressions in DEMs during the past decades. However, few studies have attempted to delineate and quantify the nested hierarchy of actual depressions, which can provide crucial information for characterizing surface hydrologic connectivity and simulating the fill‐merge‐spill hydrological process. In this paper, we present an innovative and efficient algorithm for delineating and quantifying nested depressions in DEMs using the level‐set method based on graph theory. The proposed level‐set method emulates water level decreasing from the spill point along the depression boundary to the lowest point at the bottom of a depression. By tracing the dynamic topological changes (i.e., depression splitting/merging) within a compound depression, the level‐set method can construct topological graphs and derive geometric properties of the nested depressions. The experimental results of two fine‐resolution Light Detection and Ranging‐derived DEMs show that the raster‐based level‐set algorithm is much more efficient (~150 times faster) than the vector‐based contour tree method. The proposed level‐set algorithm has great potential for being applied to large‐scale ecohydrological analysis and watershed modeling. 相似文献
219.
The importance of expert input to spatial conservation prioritization outcomes is poorly understood. We quantified the impacts of refinements made during consultation with experts on spatial conservation prioritization of Christmas Island. There was just 0.57 correlation between the spatial conservation priorities before and after consultation, bottom ranked areas being most sensitive to changes. The inclusion of a landscape condition layer was the most significant individual influence. Changes (addition, removal, modification) to biodiversity layers resulted in a combined 0.2 reduction in correlation between initial and final solutions. Representation of rare species in top ranked areas was much greater after expert consultation; representation of widely distributed species changed relatively little. Our results show how different inputs have notably different impacts on the final plan. Understanding these differences helps plan time and resources for expert consultation. 相似文献
220.
通过室内模拟实验,探究不同丰度的活、死水华束丝藻对Hg2+的吸附动力学特征和等温吸附模型以及解吸特征。结果表明,水华束丝藻对Hg2+有较好的吸附效果,能在短时间内吸附大量Hg2+,120 min左右达到吸附平衡,且活藻对Hg2+的吸附效果比死藻好;活藻和死藻吸附Hg2+的动力学过程符合准一级、准二级动力学模型,且准二级动力学模型拟合效果更好;活、死水华束丝藻对Hg2+的吸附分别符合Langmuir模型、D-R模型,最大吸附量分别为2.07×10-2 ng/（106 cells）、3.56×10-2 ng/（106 cells）;水华束丝藻对Hg2+的单位吸附量随着藻丰度的增加而减少,吸附总量随着藻丰度的增加而增加。反应初期（0～5 min）,活、死水华束丝藻对Hg2+进行生物吸附,吸附速度快且效率高;随后活藻依靠新陈代谢将Hg2+转移至细胞内进行生物富集,因而活藻的单位吸附量高于死藻。活藻和死藻对Hg2+的解吸量随藻丰度的增加而增加,且死藻变化更明显。 相似文献