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241.
M. P. Laurini 《Environmetrics》2019,30(1)
We introduce a method for decomposition of trend, cycle, and seasonal components in spatio‐temporal models and apply it to investigate the existence of climate changes in temperature series. The method incorporates critical features in the analysis of climatic problems—the importance of spatial heterogeneity, information from a large number of weather stations, and the presence of missing data. The spatial component is based on continuous projections of spatial covariance functions, allowing the modeling of complex patterns of dependence observed in climatic data. We apply this method to study climate changes in the northeast region of Brazil, characterized by a great wealth of climates and large amplitudes of temperatures. The results show the presence of a tendency for temperature increases, indicating changes in the climatic patterns in this region. 相似文献
242.
Richard A. Esposito Vello A. Kuuskraa Charles G. Rossman Michele M. Corser 《Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology》2019,9(6):1288-1301
CO2 capture and storage (CCS) can be an important feature of a decarbonization strategy involving electricity generation. According to the recently revised Section 45Q tax credits, said credits will be provided for implementing CCS, which is motivating some United States (US) electricity generation companies to revisit their business strategies for CCS. This paper discusses alternative business models being considered by companies for undertaking CCS, including providing a ‘template’ for evaluating the cost‐effectiveness of CCS with Section 45Q tax credits and storage in saline reservoirs. Using stylized illustrative examples, the paper indicates how use of Section 45Q tax credits should be expected to change dispatch at an electricity generating unit. For situations similar to the examples, the paper suggests that Section 45Q tax credits may need to be modified to achieve its intended impact. Modifications can include extending the time period of tax credit availability beyond the current 12 years. In addition, continued R&D investments in CCS and specific support for first‐of‐a‐kind CCS demonstrations would be valuable complements for the deployment of the Section 45Q tax credit. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
243.
We address the problem of estimating the use and nonuse value derived from a landscape-wide programme of environmental change. Working in the random utility framework, we develop a structural model that describes both demand for recreational trips to the landscape's quality-differentiated natural areas and preferences over different landscape-wide patterns of environmental quality elicited in a choice experiment. The structural coherence of the model ensures that the parameters of the preference function can be simultaneously estimated from the combination of revealed and stated preference data. We explore the properties of the model in a Monte Carlo experiment and then apply it to a study of preferences for changes in the ecological quality of rivers in northern England. This implementation reveals plausible estimates of the use and nonuse parameters of the model and provides insights into the distance decay in those two different forms of value. 相似文献
244.
We use a residential sorting model incorporating migration disutility to recover the implicit value of clean air in China. The model is estimated using China Population Census Data along with PM2.5 satellite data. Our study provides new evidence on the willingness to pay for air quality improvements in developing countries and is the first application of an equilibrium sorting model to the valuation of non-market amenities in China. We employ two instrumental variables based on coal-fired electricity generation and wind direction to address the endogeneity of local air pollution. Results suggest important differences between the residential sorting model and a conventional hedonic model, highlighting the role of moving costs and the discreteness of the choice set. Our sorting results indicate that the economic value of air quality improvement associated with a one-unit decline in PM2.5 concentration is up to $8.83 billion for all Chinese households in 2005. 相似文献
245.
基于环境逸度模型的化学物质暴露与风险评估研究进展 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
工业化学品通过各种迁移转化过程后在环境区间中广泛分布,同时新化学品正被大量的生产并进入环境,使得对于化学品管控的需求和压力不断增加。基于这一背景,多国政府颁布了相应的政策法规对化学品进行管控。除了用相应的政策法规进行预先管控之外,使用基于逸度概念的多介质环境模型来表征化学品的行为与归趋是一个相对简单而有效的方法,不仅适用于环境中存在的现有化学品的暴露评估,也成为各国化学品管理中对新化学品的环境暴露进行预测的有力工具。本文综述逸度概念与方法、相关环境模型、建模过程、应用验证等方面的国内外研究进展,希望能够对我国化学品环境暴露评估与风险评估的模型构建、优化与方法应用提供信息和借鉴。 相似文献
246.
采用基于Davidenkov和Matasovic骨架曲线构造的不规则加卸荷应力—应变滞回圈,数值模拟了2个剖面的苏州第四纪深厚场地二维非线性地震反应。结果表明:(1)采用Matasovic模型计算的地表峰值加速度稍大于采用Davidenkov模型计算的地表峰值加速度,但前者计算的地表地震动持续时间稍小于后者计算的。随着基岩输入地震动强度的增大,两者给出的地表峰值加速度差异呈现逐渐增大的趋势,并与土体的横向不均匀特性有关;(2)两者给出的地表谱加速度谱形基本相似,其差异随基岩输入地震动强度的增大而增大;远场地震动作用下地表谱加速度的卓越周期也随输入地震动强度的增大而增大;(3)两者给出的峰值加速度随土层深度和横向的空间变化特征基本一致,远场地震动作用下的地表峰值加速度明显大于近场地震动作用下的地表峰值加速度。 相似文献
247.
《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》2012,55(14):2549-2569
Many lakes around the world exhibit acute environmental stress due to water transfers, persistent droughts, and polluted runoff. In addition, falling water levels worsen air quality by exposing desiccated shores. To our knowledge, however, no published hedonic study has analyzed the costs of deteriorating water quality jointly with the air quality impacts of falling water levels for a large inland water body. We conduct such an analysis for the Salton Sea, the largest lake in California. Our spatial autoregressive models estimated on single-family properties located within 10 miles (16.1 km) of the Sea show that a 1 km reduction in distance to the Sea results in a $595 decrease in the price of a single-family residence. In addition, a 1% increase in annual particulate matter concentration reduces the value of the average family residence by $1,140. These results highlight the vulnerability of poor rural communities to deteriorating environmental conditions. 相似文献
248.
洪泽湖是南水北调东线工程的重要调蓄湖泊,在气候调节、防洪防汛等方面起着重要的作用.为研究洪泽湖浮游植物群落结构演替及与环境因子的关系,了解“十年禁渔”前洪泽湖生态系统状况,于2015～2020年进行了逐月监测.研究期间,总氮(TN)年平均浓度从2017年之后呈显著下降趋势,总磷(TP)和化学需氧量(COD)总体呈下降趋势,水温无明显变化趋势,水深和透明度从2015～2018年上升,之后显著下降.调查期间共鉴定有浮游植物8门102属310种,浮游植物优势门类主要包括绿藻门和硅藻门,其次为蓝藻门和甲藻门.主要优势属为栅藻(Scenedesmus)、直链藻(Aulacoseira)、隐藻(Cryptomonas)、小环藻(Cyclotella)、四角藻(Tetraedron)、微囊藻(Microcystis)和长孢藻(Dolichospermum).非度量多维尺度分析方法(NMDS)表明,洪泽湖浮游植物群落结构组成在不同年份、不同季节和不同采样区域有显著差异,其变化主要是浮游植物的优势种属间再分配.NMDS分析结果显示,洪泽湖浮游植物群落结构变化与水温、 TN、 TP、水深和透明度等因素有关... 相似文献
249.
微塑料（MPs）广泛存在于土壤和水体环境中,可以充当载体影响污染物的二次释放和生物毒性,对生态环境造成巨大威胁。了解MPs的吸附机制有助于明确MPs对污染物的富集能力和潜在环境风险。本研究总结了MPs与亲水、疏水和重金属污染物之间相互作用机制,探讨了MPs性质、老化过程及环境因素对MPs吸附行为的影响,剖析了现阶段吸附模型及预测模型的发展现状,并针对现阶段研究的不足和未来的研究方向提出展望。本研究认为,MPs与污染物的相互作用机制主要包括疏水、静电、π-π和氢键相互作用;污染物和MPs性质、老化作用和环境因素会影响MPs的吸附行为;混合阶动力学模型、现象动力学模型以及预测模型的发展有助于明晰和快速预测MPs的吸附机制;今后的研究应更加关注复合污染物与MPs的相互作用机制、老化对MPs吸附的影响机制以及MPs吸附和预测模型的应用和开发。
相似文献250.
Jeannine H. Richards 《Conservation biology》2021,35(5):1496-1506
Epiphytes, air plants that are structurally dependent on trees, are a keystone group in tropical forests; they support the food and habitat needs of animals and influence water and nutrient cycles. They reach peak diversity in humid montane forests. Climate predictions for Central American mountains include increased temperatures, altered precipitation seasonality, and increased cloud base heights, all of which may challenge epiphytes. Although remaining montane forests are highly fragmented, many tropical agricultural systems include trees that host epiphytes, allowing epiphyte communities to persist even in landscapes with lower forest connectivity. I used structural equations models to test the relative effects of climate, land use, tree characteristics, and biotic interactions on vascular epiphyte diversity with data from 31 shade coffee farms and 2 protected forests in northern Nicaragua. I also tested substrate preferences of common species with randomization tests. Tree size, tree diversity, and climate all affected epiphyte richness, but the effect of climate was almost entirely mediated by bryophyte cover. Bryophytes showed strong sensitivity to mean annual temperature and insolation. Many ferns and some orchids were positively associated with bryophyte mats, whereas bromeliads tended to establish among lichen or on bare bark. The tight relationships between bryophytes and climate and between bryophytes and vascular epiphytes indicated that relatively small climate changes could result in rapid, cascading losses of montane epiphyte communities. Currently, shade coffee farms can support high bryophyte cover and diverse vascular epiphyte assemblages when larger, older trees are present. Agroforests serve as valuable reservoirs for epiphyte biodiversity and may be important early-warning systems as the climate changes. 相似文献