多目标灰色关联度决策模型分析

本文针对多目标决策的复杂性,运用灰色系统分析方法和物元分析理论,建立了决策方案的评价体系并对评价指标进行规范化处理。以决策方案的灰色关联度作为评判准则,建立了一种目标灰色关联度决策模型。     

A New Modus Operandi for the Agricultural Economics Profession

Agricultural economics has, until the 1990s, enjoyeda reputation for relevance and usefulness to theagri-food industry and policy-makers. Thatreputation has been jeopardized by a growinginfatuation with models and quantification, and aconcomitant underemphasis placed on many complexproblems and issues of society. An illustrativeexample is explored, using agriculturalactivity-related damage to the natural resourcebase, environment and ecology. Agriculturaleconomists are urged to respond by broadening theirterms of reference and joining forces with otherdisciplines.     

IMPLICATIONS OF C.A.R.E. VS. SOUTHVIEW FARM ON THE U.S. LIVESTOCK AND POULTRY INDUSTRY1

ABSTRACT: On May 19, 1993, a jury in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of New York found Southview Farm and Richard H. Popp guilty of violating the Clean Water Act on five occasions. The violations were the result of storm water runoff from a site used for disposal of dairy cattle manure from an unpermitted concentrated animal feeding operation. The presiding District Court judge later dismissed the jury verdict, and subsequently a U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit reversed the dismissal. The Court of Appeals concluded that the discharges were not exempt as agricultural storm water discharges, and that the manure spreaders involved were point sources. Because the use of animal manures in crop production activities will result, unavoidably, in the discharge of some pollutants to adjacent surface waters, a rational and universally applicable basis is needed to determine when such discharges are point versus nonpoint source. Current statutes and regulations do not delineate clearly such a boundary. To address this lack of specificity, I propose that application rates be based on recommended crop nutrient needs.     

MUNICIPAL WATER USE AND WATER RATES DRIVEN BY SEVERE DROUGHT: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: This paper synthesizes and interprets data pertaining to the evolution of average water revenue, water use, and the average cost of water supply in the City of Santa Barbara, California, from 1986 to 1996, a period which included one of the most devastating droughts in California this century. The 1987–1992 drought hit the study area particularly hard. The City of Santa Barbara was dependent exclusively on local sources for its water supply. That made it vulnerable as the regional climate is prone to extreme variability and recurrent droughts. The 1986–1992 drought provided a rare opportunity to assess the sensitivity of municipal water use to pricing, conservation, and other water management measures under extreme drought conditions. Our analysis indicates that the average cost of water rose more than three-fold in real terms from 1986 to 1996, while the gap between the average cost of supply and the average revenue per unit of water (= 100 cubic feet) rose in real terms from $0.14 in 1986 to $ 0.75 in 1996. The rise of $3.08 in the average cost of supplying one unit of water between 1986 and 1996 measures the cost of hedging drought risk in the study area. Water use dropped 46 percent at the height of the drought relative to pro-drought water use, and remains at 61 percent of the pre-drought level. The data derived from the 1987–1992 California drought are unique and valuable insofar as shedding light on drought/water demand adaptive interactions. The experience garnered on drought management during that unique period points to the possibilities available for future water management in the Arid West where dwindling water supplies and burgeoning populations are facts that we must deal with.     

用事故树分析法进行炼厂油罐爆炸事故的环境风险评价

论述了风险、风险评价、环境风险评价的概念及其主要内容，说明利用事故树分析法进行工程环境风险评价的程序和方法。并运用这种方法对某炼厂油罐爆炸事故进行了大气环境风险评价。     

INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN OPTIMIZATION: MODELING ECONOMIC AND HYDROLOGIC INTERDEPENDENCE1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents an integrated optimal control model that optimizes economic performance of reservoir management in watersheds in which there are significant economic and hydrologic interdependencies. The model is solved using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). Results show that application of this model to New Mexico's Rio Chama basin can increase total system benefits over historical benefits by exploiting complementarities between hydroelectricity production, instream recreation, and downstream lake recreation.     

废纸造纸工业节水零排放技术

本文介绍了废纸造纸零排放技术的意义、零排放循环水处理需要解决的问题及工程实践情况。     

大坝风险研究综述

大坝风险分析将有效地提高和加强大坝安全及管理水平.本文简要地介绍了大坝风险分析的基本理论、方法以及目前的一些研究现状,这些内容包括：大坝风险分析的框架结构、风险估计方法、用于大坝风险评估的三种常见方法、基于风险概念的大坝决策、设计与管理.在介绍过程中就相关问题提出了作者的一些认识和看法.     

滑坡灾害危险性评价模型比较

通过对庆元地区滑坡灾害的详细研究，比较讨论了单变量评价、决策树评价与逻辑回归法等3种滑坡危险性评价模型在实际应用中的效果。单变量模型最为简单，计算方便，得到的结果也具有较高的准确性，当收集到的滑坡因素越多，对滑坡发育的刻画越精确，则最终评价结果也越可信；决策树算法能迅速从大量样本中归纳出一般规则，并具有较高的精度，但其结果也受到训练样本数量大小和样本维数即参与评价的因素集数量的影响；逻辑回归模型具有计算方法简单、评价结果物理意义明确等突出优点，但需要有大量样本数据的支持才能取得较好的效果。     

森林可燃物参数与林分特征关系

森林地被可燃物是引起森林火灾的重要原因,掌握森林地被可燃物的载量分布,对森林火灾的预防有着十分重要的意义.但森林地被可燃物载量数据的获得是比较困难的,运用Spss11.0 for windows统计软件系统,对兴安落叶松林和杨桦林的林分因子和各类地被可燃物载量进行后向逐步线性回归分析,建立了一套数学模型,取得了较为满意的结果,从而可以通过林分因子推算各类地被可燃物载量.