CLIMATE FORECASTS IN FLOOD PLANNING: PROMISE AND AMBIGUITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent technical and scientific advances have increased the potential use of long term, seasonal climate forecasts for improving water resource management. This paper examines the role that forecasts, in particular those based on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, can play in flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. While strong evidence exists of an association between ENSO signals and flooding in the region, this association is open to more than one interpretation depending on: (a) the metric used to test the strength of the association; (b) the definition of critical flood events; (c) site specific features of watersheds; and (d) the decision environment of flood management institutions. A better understanding and appreciation of such ambiguities, both social and statistical, will help facilitate the use of climate forecast information for flood planning and response.     

营销管理信息系统

本文从营销管理信息系统的构成、营销管理信息系统与企业营销过程的关系、营销管理信息系统的作用、内部记录系统、营销决策支持系统等几个方面对企业的营销管理信息系统进行了浅显的讨论。     

东北低温冷害防御决策支持系统的概念模型

将农业气象灾害的防灾减灾成果与智能化的计算机系统相结合,建立了东北地区低温冷害防御决策支持系统的概念模型,以提高灾害决策分析水平.概述了概念模型的基本结构,介绍了其数据库、知识库和模型库的组成,以及基于这三大库结构的查询分析功能和对低温冷害发生可能性的预测防御功能,最后对今后防灾减灾智能化的决策系统的发展进行了讨论.     

影子价格与企业管理决策

影子价格实际上是在最优决策下对一种资源效用价值的估价,它真实反映了资源在经济结构中对目标函数值的影响和贡献大小,资源的影子价格越高,表明该种资源对总目标的贡献越大.影子价格有利于资源的优化配置,并为调整产品结构、优化产业结构、增加经济效益提供了一个十分重要和有价值的数量依据.     

传统活性污泥工艺的传质强化--均匀受限工艺的研究与应用

依据惯性效应理论进行污水好氧处理的强化传质试验及工程实践,对曝气池工艺动力学的基本理论进行深入研究.试验及工程应用表明,提高曝气均匀度和加强多相物系中微涡漩的离心惯性效应,可促进物相接触和相界面更替,为活性污泥(或生物膜)、有机底质与氧气进行生化反应提供良好动力条件,提高反应效率,缩短反应历程;试验工艺及实际工程中氧利用率最高可达48%以上;COD容积负荷8.1-9.0kgCOD/m3·d;较常规工艺可降低曝气池工艺一次性投资,节省运行能耗,出水水质稳定可靠.     

印钞造纸废水回用中试研究

本课题以印钞造纸废水回用为目标，通过中试研究表明采用生物处理为核心工艺，结合废水深度处理技术。完全能使废水出水水质达到工业用水标准，从而为今后实际工程上马提供了较可靠的试验依据。     

Organizations in context: proposal for a new theoretical approach in prescriptive accident research

Lately, requests have been made to include the contexts of enterprises in models to prevent accidents at work. This paper presents different contextual theories in order to analyze whether this type of theory could be a way to elaborate our understanding of context. A differentiation is made between (a) theories of understanding relations between enterprises and regulatory agencies and (b) theories to perceive the relation between enterprise and the broader context. The last group of theories has its point of departure in an organizational understanding diverging from the classical, rational understanding of organizations and organizational processes. The conclusion is that contextual theories open for an elaborated understanding of the role of contextual relations in accident prevention, but also that an investigation of the potentials for making the theories action-orientated is needed.     

箱形长钢梁内焊接危害分析与对策

大跨度起重机箱形梁,因结构强度的要求,需要从两端进入梁内施焊。由于截面小、长度大,作业中产生大量烟尘、毒气,不能及时排出,严重损害工人身体健康。特别在高温季节,焊接热又使梁内温度增高,操作者闷热难忍,危害身心健康,影响工作效率。本文在实验研究基础上,分析了箱形长钢梁内多人焊接时,产生的烟尘、毒气及其分布情况,并“以人为中心”,剖析各种解决焊接危害技术的特点,提出适用于截面在1～2m~2、长度在30～50m范围的钢梁内多人施焊时的排烟降温对策。     

The role of analytical science in natural resource decision making

There is a continuing debate about the proper role of analytical (positivist) science in natural resource decision making. Two diametrically opposed views are evident, arguing for and against a more extended role for scientific information. The debate takes on a different complexion if one recognizes that certain kinds of problem, referred to here as “wicked” or “trans-science” problems, may not be amenable to the analytical process. Indeed, the mistaken application of analytical methods to trans-science problems may not only be a waste of time and money but also serve to hinder policy development. Since many environmental issues are trans-science in nature, then it follows that alternatives to analytical science need to be developed. In this article, the issues involved in the debate are clarified by examining the impact of the use of analytical methods in a particular case, the spruce budworm controversy in New Brunswick. The article ends with some suggestions about a “holistic” approach to the problem.     

The design and use of strategic planning arenas

This paper takes a close look at communication, process, power and institutional arrangements in the context of strategic planning. It introduces an eight step process for structuring strategic thinking and acting and develops the concept of “arenas” as a very influential — yet often very subtle — exercise of power over the course of a strategic planning process.