Assessing BMP Effectiveness and Guiding BMP Planning Using Process‐Based Modeling

There is an increasing need for improved process‐based planning tools to assist watershed managers in the selection and placement of effective best management practices (BMPs). In this article, we present an approach, based on the Water Erosion Prediction Project model and a pesticide transport model, to identify dominant hydrologic flow paths and critical source areas for a variety of pollutant types. We use this approach to compare the relative impacts of BMPs on hydrology, erosion, sediment, and pollutant delivery within different landscapes. Specifically, we focus on using this approach to understand what factors promoted and/or hindered BMP effectiveness at three Conservation Effects Assessment Project watersheds: Paradise Creek Watershed in Idaho, Walnut Creek Watershed in Iowa, and Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed in Missouri. These watersheds were first broken down into unique land types based on soil and topographic characteristics. We used the model to assess BMP effectiveness in each of these land types. This simple process‐based modeling approach provided valuable insights that are not generally available to planners when selecting and locating BMPs and helped explain fundamental reasons why long‐term improvement in water quality of these three watersheds has yet to be completely realized.     

Modeling Megacity Drinking Water Security under a DSS Framework in a Tidal River at the North Pearl River Delta,China

A modeling study was undertaken under a decision support system (DSS) for drinking water security in the Foshan section of the Beijiang River, a typical tidal river in the North Pearl River Delta. The DSS included a database layer, application support layer, and an application layer. As an integral part of the DSS application support layer, an integrated modeling system was developed to simulate hydrodynamics. The balance of dissolved oxygen and toxicants was based on an environmental fluid dynamics code and a water quality analysis simulation program (WASP) modeling framework. Model calibration and validation was undertaken using monitoring data in normal hydrological conditions. Four scenarios for the environmental management of water, including current water temp‐spatial feature analysis, control of pollution sources, and emergency response, were designed and analyzed in the DSS. The results indicated that the tide downstream has a distinct influence on hydrodynamics and pollutant diffusion, and the DSS could be used to design effective schemes to reduce pollutant discharges and provide emergency responses for ensuring drinking water security.     

基于人类可持续发展指数的中国1990—2010年人类-环境系统可持续性评价

中国经济的快速发展对人类-环境系统造成了巨大压力。如何全面地评估中国人类-环境系统可持续性已成为当前可持续性科学的一个研究热点。论文基于"人类可持续发展指数"在国家、区域和省三个尺度上系统评价了中国人类-环境系统1990—2010年的可持续性。研究结果表明,2010年中国人类-环境系统可持续性为中上水平,总体呈现东高西低的空间格局。1990—2010年中国人类-环境系统可持续性表现为增长趋势,中西部可持续性增长快于东部。经济和社会可持续性指标呈增加趋势,环境可持续性指标为下降趋势。可见,中国人类-环境系统可持续性的空间格局与动态变化均不协调,需进一步促进中西部社会经济发展及加强生态文明建设以实现社会、经济与环境可持续性的全面提高。     

Heuristics as adaptive decision strategies in management

In the management literature, heuristics are often conceived of as a source of systematic error, whereas logic and statistics are regarded as the sine qua non of good decision making. Yet, this view can be incorrect for decisions made under uncertainty, as opposed to risk. Research on fast and frugal heuristics shows that simple heuristics can be successful in complex, uncertain environments and also when and why this is the case. This article describes the conceptual framework of heuristics as adaptive decision strategies and connects it with the managerial literature. We review five classes of heuristics, analyze their common building blocks, and show how these are applied in managerial decision making. We conclude by highlighting some prominent opportunities for future research in the field. In the uncertain world of management, simple heuristics can lead to better and faster decisions than complex statistical procedures. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structuring decisions about energy in developing communities: an example from Canada's north

Decisions about energy in developing communities are challenging from a technical standpoint, and because of the unique characteristics that typify them, e.g. limited infrastructure and government budgets, complex social and political arrangements, and economic vulnerability. Against the backdrop of these challenges, the government of Canada's Northwest Territories (NWT) is attempting to reform the region's energy system. This paper provides insights from the decision sciences, stemming from our work on the NWT's energy planning process, about how to structure decisions about energy development and delivery so as to effectively meet a range of stakeholders’ objectives in a transparent and inclusive manner.     

An intelligent disaster decision support system for increasing the sustainability of transport networks

The increase in extreme weather events arising from climate change is posing serious threats to the sustainability of transport systems, creating the need for improved tools for decision support for more effectively managing natural disasters. There are numerous transport‐related decisions that are required during the response, recovery and preparedness stages of the disaster management cycle. This paper describes the development and application of the Intelligent Disaster Decision Support System (IDDSS), which provides a platform for integrating a vast range of road network, traffic, geographic, economic and meteorological data, as well as dynamic disaster and transport models. Initial applications to the response and planning for floods and fires are presented to illustrate some of its capabilities. The IDDSS can be used to improve disaster management, which in turn will increase the sustainability of transport networks.     

Concept for cost effective improvement of river morphology in the context of the European Water Framework Directive

The EU Water Framework Directive calls for cost effective measures to achieve a “good status” in all European ground, surface and coastal waters. Besides eutrophication, the degradation of hydromorphology is the main reason for failing this objective. In this paper, we conceptualise the interactive decision support process BASINFORM-M for finding proper locations for river restoration. The concept combines the recently proposed “stepping stone approach” from aquatic ecology with elements from cost effectiveness analysis, multi-criteria analysis and participatory approaches. BASINFORM-M exemplifies a shift away from the isolated restoration of single river reaches towards a consideration of functional relationships within river networks.     

How structural mitigation shapes risk perception and affects decision‐making

This paper reviews the relationships between risk perception and structural measures in an Australian context in three respects: (i) opinions about authorities’ ability to mitigate flood risks; (ii) the role of flood experience in shaping views on risk; and (iii) perspectives on the ways in which structural measures shape decision‐making pertaining to protective action. The main finding of this analysis is that the study participants do not suffer from the ‘levee paradox'. Most take precautionary steps to guard against residual flood risk. Such actions, however, do not mean that there is a lack of trust in structural measures to reduce significant flood risk. The majority of the respondents agreed about the necessity of engineering structures to mitigate inherent flood risk. This support, though, does not extend to their management. Losses during major flooding in southeast Queensland, Australia, in 2010–11 were attributed primarily by residents to operational decisions concerning dam water releases.     

喀斯特石漠化综合防治空间决策支持系统研究

为了更好地配合喀斯特石漠化的综合治理,结合地理信息系统(GIS)和决策支持系统(DSS)技术,采用Map Object开发方法,开发了喀斯特石漠化综合防治空间决策支持系统。充分利用喀斯特石漠化地区各种空间信息,建立石漠化强度现状分析、石漠化发生率计算、石漠化年变化率分析等决策分析模型以及石漠化综合防治效果监测模块。通过实际应用可知,基于空间决策支持系统(SDSS)建立空间信息系统可以很好的为喀斯特石漠化的防治提供决策分析,可以更好地监测石漠化强度的变化,有助于石漠化的治理工作。     

Risk information in decision-making: definitions,requirements and various functions

Inappropriate decisions are often regarded as causes of major accidents in the process industries. To improve the quality of decisions, it is important to make the right information available at the right time. The objective of this work is to investigate what types of risk information is needed for risk-related decisions in various decision-making processes. A framework is proposed to facilitate future research for easing information deficiency. In this paper, risk information is examined through common decision-making processes, and is identified serving to 1) detect and characterize risk-related decision problems, 2) indicate the severity and urgency of decisions, 3) state requirements and constraints of workable solutions, 4) represent attributes for comparing and evaluating solutions, and 5) act as rules to maintain safety or control risk. These usages of risk information in different decision problems imply the large diversity in information needs for decision-making. An adaptive information support is thus suggested to provide targeted risk information to specific decision-makers for effective and efficient decision-making in accident prevention in the process industries.