智能型城市防洪除涝决策支持系统总体设计研究

智能型城市防洪除涝决策支持系统是城市防洪除涝减灾的一种综合性非工程 措施。本文根据作者的经验总结和研究工作,着重阐述了其总体设计的思路、原 则、特点、及结构设计,并对专家系统、GIS技术、遥感遥测技术等高新科技在 城市防洪除涝减灾辅助决策中的作用,作了专门论述。     

基于多时相NDVI数据的复种指数提取方法研究

多熟种植是中国重要的种植制度,在农业生产中具有重要的地位。复种指数反映了耕地实际利用强度,及时获取其空间分布信息是国家农业决策的基础。论文在重新理解和定义复种指数的基础上,提出了一种基于NDVI曲线迭代修正的复种指数遥感提取方法,并以SPOT/VGT多时相NDVI数据为基础,提取了1999~2004年中国北方17省市区农用地的复种指数。结果表明:提取的复种指数空间分布符合我国耕作制度区划,基于目视解译的样点检验总体精度为95.24%,Kappa系数为0.9057,与根据统计数据得出的复种指数结果的线性回归斜率为0.9288（R2=0.9159,P<0.001）,表明该方法能够准确快捷地提取复种指数,及时地为农业和土地管理部门提供耕作制度的空间信息。     

Swarm cognition in honey bees

We synthesize findings from neuroscience, psychology, and behavioral biology to show that some key features of cognition in the neuron-based brains of vertebrates are also present in the insect-based swarm of honey bees. We present our ideas in the context of the cognitive task of nest-site selection by honey bee swarms. After reviewing the mechanisms of distributed evidence gathering and processing that are the basis of decision making in bee swarms, we point out numerous similarities in the functional organization of vertebrate brains and honey bee swarms. These include the existence of interconnected subunits, parallel processing of information, a spatially distributed memory, layered processing of information, lateral inhibition, and mechanisms of focusing attention on critical stimuli. We also review the performance of simulated swarms in standard psychological tests of decision making: tests of discrimination ability and assessments of distractor effects.     

地理信息系统在环境模型研究中的应用

结合国内外环境信息系统的研究现状和研究实例,首先分析了ＧＩＳ与环境模型研究结合的必要性和ＧＩＳ在环境模型研究中潜在的应用范围,然后剖析了ＧＩＳ与环境模型研究结合的三阶水平并介绍了ＧＩＳ在环境模型研究中的应用现状,最后分析了ＧＩＳ和环境模型研究结合的发展趋势并给出了ＧＩＳ、ＲＳ、ＥＳ与环境模型理想的结合框架。     

运用回归分析与人工神经网络预测含硫芳香族化合物好氧生物降解速率常数

为了研究人工神经网络预测有机化合物生物降解的性能,运用多元线性回归方法和误差反向传递人工神经网络模型以基团代码作为结构描述符,分别拟合、预测了一批含硫芳香族化合物的一级好氧生物降解速率常数．结果表明,由于神经网络自动考虑了基团间的交互作用,它对生物降解这类复杂问题有极高的求解能力,预测的均方误差为０．００１０２,远低于线性回归模型的预测误差０．０１５９１     

An integrated approach for the benchmarking of production facilities’ environmental performance: data envelopment analysis and life cycle assessment

Environmental impacts have become an important consideration in the manufacturing industry due to increasing public pressure for environment protection and the requirements of recently launched legislations. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a widely adopted methodological approach for the benchmarking of the relative efficiency of different production units. Changes in production efficiency may affect environmental impacts. DEA can be used for identifying the most efficient production facility and hence, the environmental impacts generated from the different production lines can then be benchmarked. Life cycle assessment (LCA) is carried out to quantify the full environmental impacts of a product from ‘cradle to grave’. The integration of LCA with DEA, efficiency and environmental impact of different production processes for a certain family of products can be evaluated and benchmarked. The proposed two-stage approach can help to reduce the aggregate environmental impacts of the manufacturing phase and is used to benchmark the environmental performance of several production lines in a manufacturing company.     

Identification of Priority Areas for Integrated Management of Semiarid Watersheds in the Ecuadorian Andes

Integrated watershed management (IWM) is a priority, especially in semiarid regions that are concurrently affected by population growth, land use change, soil erosion, and poor governance. In developing countries, IWM is often done without any support tool, scientific data, or deep knowledge of territory characteristics. The aim of this study was to present a case study to apply a decision support tool to prioritize areas for territory management. A simple, quantitative multi‐criteria analysis was applied in a semiarid basin of the Ecuadorian Andes to identify the zones of greatest concern for implementation of resource conservation and management practices at a local and regional scale. In addition to describing the current state of the conditions of this basin, our results suggest scenarios of change in relation to official population projections based on spatial analysis of land use change. Analysis resulted in a scattered distribution of priority values within the watershed, so a hierarchical rule was incorporated to define priorities at the subwatershed (SW) scale. Our analysis identified four SW of very high priority and urgent need to implement management practices. Based on projections of future change due to population growth and land cover change, the number of subbasins that require more attention was doubled. Finally, this study includes zones for management or conservation of the land, according to the Sustainable Development Goals.     

包装垃圾的分类与回收利用

包装垃圾是由废弃的包装物产生的固体垃圾,约占我国城市生活垃圾的1/3,虽然政府进行了必要回收,但仍有1/3以上的塑料、玻璃等包装物没能被有效回收利用,成了填埋场的主要填埋物,造成了环境污染和土地、石油等不可再生资源大量浪费。从回收利用和源头减量两方面提出包装垃圾的应对,一是对包装垃圾按来源、成分等进行详细分类,并建议回收处置方法;二是从制定行业政策方面来减少过度包装和扶持再生资源行业健康发展,有效处置包装垃圾等可再生资源。     

基于多元线性回归的煤矿驾驶员情绪预测模型*

为研究煤矿人车驾驶员情绪状态不良引发的煤矿驾驶事故问题,设计眼动实验并建立基于多元线性回归的驾驶员情绪状况预测模型对驾驶员情绪状况进行预测;通过眼动仪采集煤矿驾驶员良好情绪与不良情绪状态下的各项眼动指标,记录其主观情绪状态;使用多元线性回归方程对数据进行分析与建模,采用平均相对误差对预测模型进行评估。结果表明:每秒注视点个数、平均扫视速度、反应时间、危险源辨识个数在情绪变化前后存在显著差异,且与情绪状态呈较强相关;基于多元线性回归的驾驶员情绪状况预测模型预测精度较高,平均相对误差为8.16%。模型适用于煤矿人车驾驶员的情绪监测,可为煤矿驾驶员安全行驶提供保障。