基于小波变换与传统时间序列模型的臭氧浓度多步预测

采用最大重叠小波分解与重构方法,将影响O3小时浓度的不同时间尺度的物化过程分离出来,以提高序列的光滑性.同时,选择合适的传统时间序列模型(如ARIMA模型等)来描述不同过程的序列特征,并分别拟合预报.最后,在建模中引入24 h季节项,以实现提前24 h-次性预测未来1d的O3逐时浓度.结果表明,预报的平均相对误差为12.92％,平均绝对误差和均方根误差分别为10.04 μ.g·m-3和13.98μg·m-3,预报值与实测值的相关系数和匹配指数分别为0.96和0.98.随着预测期的延长,预报误差仍处于可接受范围内.该方法同样适用于每日最大O3小时浓度预报,研究结果为发布天气预报式的空气质量预报提供了新思路,便于公众规划出行并减少大气污染暴露.     

北京夏季灰霾天臭氧近地层垂直分布与边界层结构分析

后奥运时期首都北京的空气质量被更加关注,尤其是对于灰霾天与光化学复合污染的状况,而近地层数百米高度内的大气污染物与大气物理参数垂直分布观测对于空气质量变化过程评估至关重要.因此,本研究于2009年8月1-16日,在北京市325 m气象塔进行了相应的立体观测,观测平台垂直分布在距离地面高度8、47、120和280 m四层中.同时,在近地面320 m高度以内,分15层分别观测了大气温度、湿度、风速、风向.另外,使用气溶胶后向散射云高仪观测了边界层2.5 km内气溶胶后向散射系数.利用垂直分层的O3数据与边界层物理观测数据并结合天气形势、后向轨迹模式等方法,综合分析了本次观测数据之间的相互关系和内在联系.结果表明:夏季西北部低压槽控制的北京区域不利于低空大气扩散,容易形成光化学污染叠加灰霾污染,污染形成时白天地面小时最大φ(O3)可达120×10-9,280 m高度处可达155×10-9;来自西北偏西的气流一般较为干净,有利于北京污染物的清除,而来自西南和偏南的气流使北京的O3污染加重,导致区域性高浓度O3污染;在稳定天气条件下,夜间残留层与地面的φ(O3)差别越大,次日光化学生成的φ(O3)起点越高,表明残留层O3在次日混合层抬升过程中卷夹到地面,影响地面空气质量;300 m以内的近地层,在50 m高度左右存在φ(O3)变化程度剧烈层,这是城市冠层界面与大气化学反应共同作用的结果.     

Quantitative analysis of microbial biomass yield in aerobic bioreactor

We have studied the integrated model of reaction rate equations with thermal energy balance in aerobic bioreactor for food waste decomposition and showed that the integrated model has the capability both of monitoring microbial activity in real time and of analyzing biodegradation kinetics and thermal-hydrodynamic properties. On the other hand, concerning microbial metabolism, it was known that balancing catabolic reactions with anabolic reactions in terms of energy and electron flow provides stoichiometric metabolic reactions and enables the estimation of microbial biomass yield (stoichiometric reaction model). We have studied a method for estimating real-time microbial biomass yield in the bioreactor during food waste decomposition by combining the integrated model with the stoichiometric reaction model. As a result, it was found that the time course of microbial biomass yield in the bioreactor during decomposition can be evaluated using the operational data of the bioreactor (weight of input food waste and bed temperature) by the combined model. The combined model can be applied to manage a food waste decomposition not only for controlling system operation to keep microbial activity stable, but also for producing value–added products such as compost on optimum condition.     

常州市典型臭氧污染天气过程及成因分析研究

臭氧是一种存在于地球臭氧层和近地面的气体,它对人类和环境是否有益取决于大气中存在的位置。高空臭氧层使人类免受紫外线伤害,而近地面臭氧是光化学烟雾产生的主要污染物,损害农作物、树木和其他植物生长,危害人体健康诱发儿童哮喘等疾病。本文结合2013年8月12日常州市出现的臭氧污染天气,利用气象和空气自动监测数据,对污染过程、变化特征和成因进行了分析。结果表明,在连续高温、太阳辐射强度大、风速低、大气扩散条件差等气象因素和臭氧前体物（NMHC）较高等不利条件下,易形成臭氧污染天气,导致空气质量下降。     

利用沉积色素恢复湖泊古紫外强度研究综述

自从南极臭氧空洞被发现以来,平流层臭氧浓度下降导致到达地表的紫外辐射增强的现象引起了人们的广泛关注,目前这一状况还在不断加剧并将在未来很长一段时间里持续下去。为了更好地理解这种现象在长时间尺度上的意义以及合理预测未来地球表面紫外环境的变化以及生态系统的响应过程,科学家开始尝试恢复历史时期地球表面紫外辐射的变化。Scytonemin是蓝绿藻细胞外鞘上的一种抗UV色素,高UV强度照射能够促使细胞合成更多的这种色素以保护细胞免受紫外辐射的伤害,并且这种色素在湖泊沉积物中能够很好地保存。因此,我们可以通过分析不同时间段蓝绿藻细胞的scytonemin含量来反映历史时期湖泊紫外环境的变化。进一步的研究可以推测造成这种变化的原因以及生态系统对这些过程的响应,为预测未来地表紫外环境的变化及生态系统的响应提供合适的理论和证据。     

The predictive validity of safety climate

PROBLEM: Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. METHODS: This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628]. In addition, safety behavior and accident experience data were collected for 5 months following the survey and were statistically analyzed (structural equation modeling, confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory factor analysis, etc.) to identify correlations, associations, internal consistency, and factorial structures. RESULTS: Results revealed that the ZSCQ: (a) was psychometrically reliable and valid, (b) served as an effective predictor of safety-related outcomes (behavior and accident experience), and (c) could be trimmed to an 11 item survey with little loss of explanatory power. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Practitioners and researchers can use the ZSCQ with reasonable certainty of the questionnaire's reliability and validity. This provides a solid foundation for the development of meaningful organizational interventions and/or continued research into social factors affecting industrial accident experience.     

基于BP神经网络的煤层自燃预测

在全面分析影响煤层自燃因素的基础上,建立了煤层自燃预测的人工神经网络模型.应用该模型对某煤田的多个煤层样本进行了训练和预测,网络经过10次训练后,误差达到设定的最小值,6次预测测试中最大误差仅为0.027 8,最小的为0.000 1.研究表明,该模型精度较高,可用于预测煤层自燃的实际应用.     

纳米TiO2催化臭氧化对松花江水中氨氮的影响

研究了以负载于陶粒、硅胶、沸石表面的纳米TiO₂作为催化剂时,催化臭氧化松花江水过程中氨氮浓度的变化.结果表明,在单独臭氧化过程中,氨氮浓度先升高后下降,反应30 min后的氨氮浓度与初始浓度相近.在以TiO₂/陶粒、TiO₂/硅胶为催化剂的催化臭氧化过程中,氨氮浓度也是先升高后下降,但反应过程中氨氮的平均浓度要高于单独臭氧化过程.以TiO₂/沸石为催化剂时,催化臭氧化过程中氨氮浓度先下降,然后略有升高,继而又下降,30 min时对氨氮的去除率接近80%.单独臭氧化和催化臭氧化过程中,增大臭氧投量,氨氮浓度最大值出现的时间提前,并且反应过程中氨氮浓度平均值降低.增大催化剂TiO₂/陶粒、TiO₂/硅胶的投量,催化臭氧化过程中氨氮浓度平均值升高.增大TiO₂/沸石投量,有利于氨氮的去除,但投量增大到50g以上时,对氨氮的去除效果影响很小.温度从10℃升高到30℃,对TiO₂/陶粒、TiO₂/硅胶催化臭氧化过程中氨氮浓度的变化影响不大.而以TiO₂/沸石为催化剂时,温度升高有利于催化臭氧化过程中氨氮的去除.     

臭氧/混凝预处理工艺降低膜污染的研究

采用臭氧和混凝工艺分别处理黄浦江原水后进行MF膜过滤试验,考察2种预处理工艺对有机物的作用,进而考察其对MF膜过滤特性的影响.结果表明,2种预处理工艺都存在一个使膜污染下降率达到最大的最佳投药量.2种预处理工艺中,混凝降低膜污染的效果要好于臭氧,这主要与2种预处理工艺所去除的有机物性质有关.黄浦江水中有机物相对分子质量主要集中在3×103～5×103范围内,膜化学清洗液的分析表明造成膜污染的有机物相对分子质量主要集中在4.5×103附近,臭氧对相对分子质量在3×103附近的有机物去除效果较好,而混凝主要去除5×103附近的较大相对分子质量的有机物,因而混凝对这部分污染膜物质的去除效果要好于臭氧,从而有效降低了膜污染.     

含信号控制人行横道的街道峡谷污染物扩散三维数值模拟

耦合微观交通仿真和机动车尾气排放模型,分别对含信号控制人行横道和不含信号控制人行横道的街道峡谷污染物排放进行计算,并以此为排放源,采用k-ε两方程模型与组分输运方程对风向与街道垂直时的污染扩散情况进行了三维数值模拟.结果表明,k-ε两方程模型与组分输运方程可以较好地模拟风向与街道垂直时三维街道峡谷内的污染物扩散情况.峡...